In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

Additional Model Predictions & Bonuses ⬇️

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There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 8-6

Over/Under Predictions: 5-8-1

Run Line Predictions: 5-9

Featured Matchup: 0-1

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16 MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for 15 of those 16 matchups can be found below.

San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins

Model Predicts- Padres ML, UNDER 9, Padres -1.5

The San Diego Padres and Miami Marlins will continue their three-game series on Saturday, with the first pitch for Game 2 scheduled to be thrown at 4:10 PM Eastern.

San Diego got the best of Miami in Game 1 on Friday, posting a 6-2 victory in extra innings. That win was the sixth-consecutive victory for the Padres, bringing their season record to 65-52, while the loss was the fourth in the last five games for the Marlins.

The talent gap between these two squads is quite large, and our model projects that leading to a sizable win for the Padres this evening. Let’s dive into why that is.

San Diego Padres

• Enter today on six-game win streak

  • Two wins over Rockies, three over Pirates, and one over Marlins

  • Own +21 run differential in that stretch

• Offense has been key to hot streak

  • Rank 2nd in wRC+ (145), 14th in BABIP (.307), and 3rd in OPS (.861) since August 3rd

  • Making contact at tremendously high rate- own 12.7% Strikeout rate across last six games (4.7% better than any other team)

• Starting pitcher- Matt Waldron

  • Pitching to expectations- 3.79 ERA vs 3.50 xERA

  • Elite at avoiding hard contact (33.4% Hard Hit rate) and barrel (6.3% Barrel rate)

Miami Marlins

• Took Padres to extra innings last night, but still played poorly

  • Scored two runs- both in 4th inning

  • recorded only four hits compared to 11 for San Diego

• Pitching and hitting ranks amongst bottom teams in MLB in August

  • Pitchers- 5.11 ERA (21st), 4.83 FIP (23rd), 1.56 HR/9 innings (20th)

  • Hitters- 84 wRC+ (26th), .295 BABIP (16th), .649 OPS (26th), and 28.1% Strikeout rate (25th)

• Starting pitcher- Roddery Munoz

  • Bad pitcher expected to get worse- 5.68 ERA vs 6.45 xERA

What’s the Play?

Miami nearly ended San Diego’s win streak last night, which may provide some confidence entering today. However, we agree with our model that the Padres are in a position to win big this afternoon.

Munoz has been consistently lit up by Miami’s opponents this season, and it is due to a variety of factors. The right-hander owns a 19.0% Strikeout rate and 11.3% Walk rate this season, meaning that contact is happening in bunches and his poor control is putting additional runners on base. Additionally, all that contact is bad contact, as Munoz owns a Hard Hit rate (45.5%), Ground Ball rate (33.3%), and Barrel rate (14.1%) that places him in the bottom 7% of the MLB in all three categories.

Munoz is also due to see more regression, as his xERA is 0.77 runs than his real ERA, while Matt Waldron is expected to continue to be stellar on the mound.

We don’t normally take favorites on the run line, but San Diego has a massive advantage on the mound and has been the far better team at the plate this month. We expect the Padres to win by multiple runs today.

The Play: Padres -1.5 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• San Diego Padres- 65-52 overall this season, 35-23 as the away team, and 6-0 in last six games

• Philadelphia Phillies- 69-47 overall this season, 31-26 as the away team

• Seattle Mariners- 61-56 overall this season, 35-26 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Baltimore Orioles- Over is 66-42-9 this season, 18-15-4 against division opponents (Play AL East rival Tampa Bay today)

• Seattle Mariners- Under is 61-50-6 this season, 38-20-3 as the home team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Cincinnati Reds- Run line is 64-52 this season, 37-26 as an underdog

💪 Orioles take over 1st place in AL East thanks to Eflin’s dominance. Zach Eflin pitched seven scoreless innings against his former team, helping the Baltimore Orioles secure a 4-1 victory over the Tampa Bay Rays and move into first place in the American League East. Eflin, who was recently acquired by Baltimore, allowed only four hits, struck out seven, and earned his third consecutive win since joining the Orioles. Colton Cowser and Cedric Mullins homered to support Eflin's effort, while the Orioles' bullpen, despite giving up a late home run, closed out the game.

🔥 Vladdy Jr. extends hitting streak to 21 games in win over Athletics. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. extended his hitting streak to 21 games as the Toronto Blue Jays defeated the Oakland Athletics 3-1, with José Berríos striking out eight over seven strong innings. Alejandro Kirk's tiebreaking RBI in the sixth inning and Spencer Horwitz's solo homer in the eighth provided the necessary runs for Toronto's third win in four games. Guerrero, who is batting .506 during his streak, continues to lead the majors with the longest active hitting streak.

Today’s trivia requires you to have some knowledge on nicknames. We’ve listed the nicknames of five former and current NBA players, and it is your job to guess who those players are.

1. The Admiral

2. The Ice Man

3. The Round Mound of Rebound

4. Latvian Laser

5. Slim Reaper

Anyone know what has happened on August 10th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On August 10th…

1985- Oakland Athletics slugger Dave Kingman hits his 400th career home run in a 11-5 victory over the Seattle Mariners. Kingman hit the homer off Matt Young, giving him his 23rd home run of the season. The dinger also made Kingman just the 21st player in MLB history to reach the 400 home run milestone, and his 442 career home runs ranks him 43rd on the MLB’s all-time list.

2008- American swimmer Michael Phelps wins the gold medal in the 400 meter individual medley at the Beijing Olympics, setting a new world record in the process. That race was just the tip of the iceberg for what Phelps would accomplish at the 2008 Olympics, an event where he won eight gold medals and set seven world records. The eight gold medals were the most won by an individual at a single Olympic games, and Phelps would end his career with an incredible 23 gold medals on his way to becoming the most accomplished Olympian ever.

2014- Rory McIlroy defeats Phil Mickelson by one stroke at the PGA Championship, the second time the Northern Irishman won the event. McIlroy was in the lead for a majority of the tournament, lowering his score to 9-under par after the second round and never looking back. He would go on to shoot 7-under par across the final 36 holes, giving McIlroy his fourth career major victory and second of the season after winning the Open Championship a few weeks prior.

1. David Robinson

2. George Gervin

3. Charles Barkley

4. Davis Bertans

5. Kevin Durant