In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the NCAA, NBA, and NHL, with our model focusing in on two of those predictions in our Featured Matchups. Those predictions went 0-2 overall, and you can see how each of the models performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 12-3

Over/Under Predictions: 8-7

Spread Predictions: 12-3

Featured Matchup: 0-1

Money Line Predictions: 3-3

Over/Under Predictions: 2-4

Spread Predictions: 3-3

Featured Matchup: 0-1

Money Line Predictions: 3-5

Over/Under Predictions: 2-6

Puck Line Predictions: 3-5

Featured Matchup: 0-0

Premium subscribers went 2-1 on NBA player props yesterday, and they have access to a ton more today…

• Our NFL model’s stat projections for every starting QB on Sunday, plus three QB player props (already posted on our website)

• Three player props for the 4 PM slate of NFL games

• Three NBA player props

And it costs just $0.50 per day to access. Click the button below to join Premium today!

There are 11 NFL games scheduled to take place throughout this afternoon and evening. Our model’s predictions for all 11 matchups can be found below.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders

Model Predicts- Chiefs ML, UNDER 43.5, Raiders +9.5

The Kansas City Chiefs will hit the road in Week 12 for an AFC West battle with the Raiders on Sunday.

Kansas City enters today’s matchup in first place in the AFC West with a 7-3 record, most recently losing to the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football just six nights ago. On the other hand, Las Vegas owns a 5-6 record, but is 2-1 since firing head coach Josh McDaniels a few weeks ago.

Kansas City owns a 9-1 record against Las Vegas since 2018, and it comes as no surprise to see our model predict the Chiefs as outright winners today. However, we are more concerned with the total in this spot, so let’s dive into why that is.

Kansas City Chiefs

• Offense is starting to sputter

  • 4.7 yards per play over last three weeks. Down from 5.6 for season

  • Mahomes- completing 61.2% of passes in last three games. Averaging just 5.4 yards per pass attempt

• Team disappears in second half

  • Average 5.3 points per game across 3rd and 4th quarters (32nd in NFL)

  • Have scored zero points in second half in each of last three games

• Defense is still strong, especially against the pass

  • 5th in EPA/play, 2nd in dropback success rate

Las Vegas Raiders

• 2-1 under new coach Antonio Pierce

  • Beat Giants and Jets. Lost to Dolphins

• Offense has fallen back to Earth since Pierce’s debut

  • Heavily out-gained by Jets and Dolphins over last two weeks

  • Aidan O’Connell- 2 TDs and 4 INTs in last two weeks

  • 52% of points in last two games have come from field goals

• Defense has flaws, but is underrated

  • Struggle to defend run- allow 4.5 yards per carry

  • Top-10 in EPA/dropback, allow ninth-fewest pass yards per game at home

What’s the Play?

Divisional battles tend to be tightly contested games, and we agree with our model that the under is a good play for this matchup.

It’s crazy to say, but both Las Vegas and Kansas City have looked limited through the air in recent weeks. Raiders quarterback Aidan O’Connell is a rookie so that is understandable, but we are starting to see the lack of pass catchers start to catch up with Mahomes and the Chiefs, and it has had an effect on Kansas City’s scoring output.

Both Vegas and Kansas City are great against the pass, so the recent struggles through the air are likely to continue. That will lead to both teams utilizing the ground game, and in turn a low scoring contest.

The Play: Under 43.5 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Houston Texans- 6-4 overall this season, 4-2 as an underdog

• Kansas City Chiefs- 7-3 overall this season, 9-1 in last ten games against Raiders

• Baltimore Ravens- 8-3 overall this season, 4-1 as the away team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Kansas City Chiefs- Under is 8-2 this season, 3-1 as the away team

• Las Vegas Raiders- Under is 9-2 this season, highest win % in NFL

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers- 7-3 against the spread (ATS) this season, 5-0 ATS as the away team

• Baltimore Ravens- 7-4 ATS this season, 2-2 ATS as the away team

🤕 Marshon Lattimore joins Thomas on IR. The New Orleans Saints placed cornerback Marshon Lattimore on injured reserve due to an ankle injury, joining wide receiver Michael Thomas. Coach Dennis Allen had previously discussed the possibility of Lattimore's IR placement, indicating ongoing evaluation of his injury's severity after both Lattimore and Thomas were hurt during the Saints' Week 10 matchup against the Minnesota Vikings. Both Lattimore and Thomas have faced injury setbacks in the past season, with Lattimore experiencing a lengthy absence due to kidney and rib injuries, while Thomas battled a toe injury that limited his play to just three games.

🐬 Dolphins’ Phillips diagnosed with torn achilles. Miami Dolphins linebacker Jaelan Phillips exited the 34-13 victory over the New York Jets due to an Achilles injury. The injury occurred without contact late in the fourth quarter, and initial signs pointed to a potential Achilles tendon rupture, leaving Phillips visibly emotional as he was taken off the field. Phillips, who led the team in sacks despite missing several games this season, had previously spoken about the mental toll of earlier injuries, and his Dolphins teammates have spoken out about the change that is needed to MetLife Stadium’s field.

The NBA has decided to give us an exciting slate of games on Sunday, scheduling eight in total. Our model’s predictions for all eight matchups can be found below.

Toronto Raptors @ Cleveland Cavaliers

Model Predicts- Raptors ML, OVER 219.5, Raptors +1.5

The Toronto Raptors will make their way to American soil on Sunday to take on the Cavaliers in Cleveland, Ohio.

Toronto enters tonight’s matchup with an 8-8 record, but is riding high following two straight wins over the Pacers and Bulls. Coincidentally, Cleveland also sits at 8-8 this season, but has suffered two consecutive losses to the Heat and Lakers after winning four straight contests the week prior.

This will be the second game in two nights for Cleveland, and our model believes that will give Toronto a chance to win this one outright as a short underdog. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Toronto Raptors

• Two consecutive wins brought record back to .500 mark

  • Beat Pacers by 1, Bulls by 13

• Offense is a well-oiled machine entering tonight

  • Own 126.5 Offensive Rating in last two games- 3rd in NBA

  • Shooting 53.3% overall and 36.4% from three in same two games

• Have started to slide defensively

  • 112.5 Defensive Rating- 12th in NBA

  • Rank 20th in opponent points in paint per game, 21st in opponent three-point %

Cleveland Cavaliers

• Two consecutive losses have been tough to watch

  • Lost to Heat by 33 on Wednesday. Lost to Lakers by six last night

• Defensive woes start on the perimeter

  • Allow opponents to shoot 38.8% from three this season. Has risen to 46.8% over last two games

  • Darius Garland is questionable- would be another blow to perimeter defense

• Offense isn’t much of a threat

  • Rank 25th in Offensive Rating

What’s the Play?

The Cavaliers should be full of concerns entering tonight’s matchup. Their inability to guard the perimeter is a problem in today’s NBA, and the potential absence of Garland will only make Cleveland more vulnerable.

As a result, we’ll back the Raptors on the spread today.

Toronto isn’t a great three-point shooting team, hitting three’s at 34.8% clip this season. However, the Raptors’ efficiency from deep has improved to 36.4% over the last two games, which is a great compliment to the 53.5 points per game Toronto scores in the paint.

The Raptors are starting to prove they can score at all levels, and the rest advantage works in their favor tonight. This is a great spot to continue fading a struggling Cavaliers team.

The Play: Raptors +1.5 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Orlando Magic- 11-5 overall this season, 6-2 as the home team

• New York Knicks- 9-6 overall this season, 4-2 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Orlando Magic- Under is 9-6-1 this season, 5-2 as the home team

• Denver Nuggets- Under is 11-5 this season, 4-3 as a home favorite

Spread Trends ➕➖

• New York Knicks- 8-5-2 against the spread (ATS) this season, 3-2 ATS as a home favorite

💪 Clippers beat Mavericks for 4th win in five games. The Clippers secured a decisive 107-88 win over the Mavericks, led by Paul George's 25 points. Luka Doncic scored 30 points, and Kyrie Irving added 26 for the Mavericks, who struggled offensively for the second consecutive game, failing to reach 100 points for the first time this season. Los Angeles showcased their diverse talents with contributions from Terance Mann and Norman Powell, bouncing back from a prior loss and demonstrating their ability to win in various ways following the addition of Harden.

Only five NHL games are set to take place today. You can find our model’s predictions for all five matchups below.

Minnesota Wild @ Detroit Red Wings

Model Predicts- Red Wings ML, OVER 6.5, Red Wings +1.5

The Minnesota Wild will hit the road for a short one-game road trip on Sunday, making their way to Detroit to take on the Red Wings.

Minnesota enters today’s battle with a brutal 5-9-4 record, a result of losing six consecutive games. Meanwhile, the Red Wings sit at 10-6-3 and have won three of their last five contests.

Our model believes Minnesota’s losing streak will continue today, but it shows a significant edge on the total, which may be worth backing. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Minnesota Wild

• Enter today on six-game losing streak

  • Four games decided by one goal. -12 goal differential in that time

• Can’t figure things out defensively

  • Rank 27th in GA/60 in 5-on-5 situations (3.02)

  • Worst penalty kill in NHL- allow goal on 32.8% of power plays

• Expected goalie- Filip Gustavsson

  • .887 Save % and .810 High-Danger Save % in 5-on-5

  • Ranks 71st out of 76 in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) with -6.2

Detroit Red Wings

• Continue to score goals at high clip

  • Rank third in GF/60 in 5-on-5 (3.32)

  • Outscoring opponents 20-14 over last five games

• Defense is due for regression

  • Own 2.41 GA/60 in 5-on-5 situations, but xGA/60 in same situations sits at 2.65

• Expected goalie- Alex Lyon

  • .943 Save % in 5-on-5 this season

  • +1.4 GSAx

What’s the Play?

What we’ve seen so far from the Wild has been shocking, as we are used to Minnesota being one of the best regular season teams. We should expect things to turnaround eventually, but today we think both the Wild and Red Wings will find the back of the net often.

Minnesota’s goalie situation has been responsible for its collapse, with today’s starter, Filip Gustavsson, playing a large role. He has surrendered at least three goals in eight of his last nine appearances, and a red hot scoring attack like Detroit will likely have a field day with him in net.

However, the Red Wings are due for regression defensively, opening up the door for Minnesota to get back on track here. Our model projects roughly seven goals to be scored today, so we’ll back the over.

The Play: Over 6.5 (-115)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Detroit Red Wings- 10-6-3 overall this season, 6-3-2 as the home team

• Carolina Hurricanes- 11-8-0 this season, 6-2-0 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Minnesota Wild- Over is 11-6-1- this season with average total of 7.17

• Detroit Red Wings- Over is 12-7 this season with average total of 6.79

Puck Line Trends ➕➖

• Anaheim Ducks- Puck line is 12-8 this season

💥 Rangers score seven goals to beat Bruins. The New York Rangers secured a 7-4 victory against the Boston Bruins in a crucial Eastern Conference clash on Saturday. New York was led by Jimmy Vesey's late second-period goal, which broke a 3-3 tie, along with a stellar performance from Jonathan Quick with 27 saves. New York's win marks a historic 15 wins in 19 or fewer games, the first time in franchise history that the Rangers have reached the 15-win mark this early.

💪 Kings beat Canadiens for 5th straight win. The Los Angeles Kings clinched a 4-0 win against the Montreal Canadiens, with Trevor Moore scoring two goals and Pheonix Copley achieving his third career shutout with 18 saves. Carl Grundström and Trevor Lewis also contributed to the Kings' fifth consecutive victory, highlighting their dominant defensive performance by limiting Montreal to just one shot on goal in the first period. Coach Todd McLellan praised the team's discipline, crediting their impressive 13-3-3 start to the season.