In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were no model predictions yesterday, January 19, 2024.

Two NFL games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for both matchups can be found below.

Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers

Model Predicts- 49ers ML, UNDER 50.5, Packers +10

The Green Bay Packers will make the journey to the West Coast to take on the San Francisco 49ers on Saturday Night.

Green Bay enters tonight’s matchup fresh off an upset victory over the Dallas Cowboys last weekend, a game in which the Packers won 48-32. Meanwhile, San Francisco has not seen the field for several weeks, a result of earning a bye after being named the No.1 seed in the NFC.

The 49ers enter tonight’s matchup has a heavy favorite, but our model believes the spread and total are a few points too high. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Green Bay Packers

• Awesome win last week vs Dallas

  • 16 point win. Dominated in every facet- 143 yards on ground, 272 through air

• Worry about offense this week

  • Ran ball 32 times last week- exact game plan you need to beat Dallas as Cowboys ranked 32nd in opponent rushing success rate

  • SF ranks 24th in same category, but has held its opponent to 3.6 yards per carry in last three games

• Defense isn’t particularly strong

  • 23rd in EPA/play. Gave up loads of points to bad teams (30 to Panthers)

San Francisco 49ers

• Most starters have had long time off

  • Had bye week last week, most rested vs Rams in Week 18

  • Most of core group has had played game together since December 31st- likely some rust early in game

• Possess talented defense that can stop hot offense

  • Rank 10th in EPA/play

  • Rush defense improving- three of last six opponents have been held to 70 rush yards or less

What’s the Play?

Our model believes that the spread for today’s matchup should be closer to 8.5, showing some value on Green bay here. However, we agree with our model that this is a good spot for the under.

The formula for beating the Dallas Cowboys is to score first and run the ball, as that defense can’t stop the run and the offense struggled playing from behind all season. That is exactly what Green Bay did, and it made life 100 times easier for Jordan Love and the young pass catchers. However, that won’t be the case against this 49ers defense, one that is far better than Dallas in almost every aspect.

Green Bay is a prime candidate for regression this week, and we wouldn’t be surprised to see San Francisco come out of the gates with some rust after some key players haven’t seen the field in nearly three weeks. That should lead to a low scoring contest.

The Play: Under 50.5 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Baltimore Ravens- 13-4 overall this season, 6-3 as the home team

• San Francisco 49ers- 12-5 overall this season, 7-2 since Week 9 bye

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Houston Texans- Under is 11-7 this season, 6-4 as an underdog

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Houston Texans- 10-8 against the spread (ATS) this season, 7-3 ATS as an underdog

• Green Bay Packers- 7-4 ATS as an underdog this season

🤝 Raiders hire Antonio Pierce as head coach. The Las Vegas Raiders have officially appointed Antonio Pierce as their permanent head coach, following his interim role during the 2023 regular season after the departure of Josh McDaniels. Under Pierce's leadership, the team achieved a 5-4 record and finished the season with an 8-9 record, securing second place in the AFC West. The decision to make Pierce the full-time coach was backed by several players, including Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs, and Maxx Crosby, with Crosby expressing potential trade considerations if the interim tag wasn't removed.

🎤 Falcons schedule second interview with Harbaugh. The Atlanta Falcons are set to conduct a second interview with Michigan's Jim Harbaugh for their head coach position, following their initial meeting on Jan. 16, according to sources. The second interview is scheduled for next week, as confirmed by Tom Pelissero of NFL Network. Harbaugh, who recently led Michigan to an undefeated 2023 campaign and won the College Football Playoff National Championship, holds an impressive collegiate coaching record of 89-25 with Michigan and an overall record of 118-46, including his time at Stanford from 2007 to 2010.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- What two quarterbacks were selected first and second overall in the 2012 NFL Draft?

Question #2- Who is the NBA’s all-time steals leader?

Question #3- Jameer Nelson and Delonte West led what school to the Elite Eight in the 2003-04 season?

Anyone know what has happened on January 20th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On January 20th…

1974- Notre Dame basketball defeats UCLA 71-70 in South Bend, Indiana. The game snapped UCLA’s historic 88-game win streak, which is still the longest win streak in NCAAB history. The Bruins would shake off the loss though, advancing all the way to the Final Four before losing to NC State.

1996- The NHL Board of Directors approves the sale of the Winnipeg Jets. The move allowed the Jets to move to their desired destination before the 1996-97 season, which ended up being Phoenix, Arizona. The team would change its name to the Coyotes, and the Atlanta Thrashers would eventually relocate to Winnipeg to become the Jets of today’s NHL.

2000- Michael Jordan makes his return to the NBA. Jordan would go on to join the Washington Wizards, becoming a part owner and the franchise’s President of Basketball Operations. He would also play for the Wizards for two seasons, averaging 21.2 points per game and earning an All-Star nod in both seasons.

1. Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III

2. John Stockton

3. Saint Joseph’s