In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions and making it a 3-star play. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 7-5

Over/Under Predictions: 3-9

Run Line Predictions: 9-3

3-star Predictions: 0-1

👑Kings sign Nerlens Noel to one-year deal. The Sacramento Kings and big man Nerlens Noel have reportedly come to terms on a one-year, $3.1 million deal, per Adrian Wojnarowski. Noel played for the Brooklyn Nets and Detroit Pistons during the 2022-23 season, averaging 2.1 points, 2.7 rebounds, and 0.9 nine steal per game across 17 contests. The 29-year-old is mostly known for his defensive presence, but that has not been enough for many NBA teams to keep Noel around as he has played for six other NBA teams since being drafted sixth overall in 2013 by the New Orleans Pelicans.

🔄Daryl Morey not trading James Harden without good return. Stop us if you’ve heard this before. Philadelphia 76ers guard James Harden has yet again requested a trade, but 76ers President of Basketball Operations Daryl Morey has come out and said that he will not trade Harden if the price isn’t right. Harden, who accepted his $35.6-million player option at the end of last month before making the trade request, has stated that he wants to play for the Los Angeles Clippers, and it appears that the Clippers would like to have the former MVP on the roster as well. However, Morey’s desire to get the right return could very easily complicate things, making another Ben Simmons-like saga a possibility.

There are 15 MLB games scheduled to take place throughout this afternoon and evening, with the first beginning at 12:35 PM ET. However, due to gaps in the season data, our model has predictions for 14 of today’s matchups.

Cleveland Guardians @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Model Predicts- Guardians ML, Under 9, Guardians -1.5

The Cleveland Guardians and Pittsburgh Pirates will finish off a three-game series on Wednesday afternoon at PNC Park.

Cleveland has taken total control of this series from the very first pitch, outscoring Pittsburgh 21-1 in the first two matchups, resulting in two blowout victories so far.

Pittsburgh is struggling to get much going at the plate, and Cleveland’s hot offense is making our model lean heavily in favor of the Guardians in this afternoon’s matchup. Will we see that prediction come to fruition, or will Pittsburgh find a way to avoid the sweep?

Cleveland Guardians

The Cleveland Guardians’ sudden offensive surge is a welcome one for the team, as Cleveland now finds itself just 1.5 games back of Minnesota in the AL Central.

However, despite Cleveland’s offensive spike, the Guardians still do not boast an impressive hitting attack.

According to FanGraphs, Cleveland enters today’s matchup ranked 23rd in wRC+ (92) and 18th in BABIP (.295). Those numbers have failed to rise much higher in the month of July even with the last two games factored in, with the Guardians posting a 107 wRC+ and .302 BABIP since July 1st.

In fact, if it wasn’t for the 21-run outburst over the last two days, we would likely not have even known that Cleveland was making a move up the standings. The Guardians posted a 93 wRC+ from July 1-16, showing that this week’s offensive output is more of an outlier than anything else.

While the offense hasn’t been all that impressive in the grand scheme of things, today’s starting pitcher, Aaron Civale (3-2 record, 2.65 ERA) has been.

Civale has been great on the mound since returning from injury on June 2nd, posting a 2.60 ERA and only allowing more than two earned runs in one start. The 28-year old’s 19.7% strikeout rate indicates that he is pitching to contact, but luckily Civale ranks in the 76th percentile in Hard Hit rate and 83rd percentile in Barrel rate, per Baseball Savant. The soft contact has kept runners off the base paths, and we should see that again this afternoon

Pittsburgh Pirates

Remember when the Pittsburgh Pirates began the season winning 20 of their first 29 games? Well, the Pirates have gone just 21-45 since then, putting Pittsburgh in last place in the NL Central.

The main reason for the tumble in the standings is the complete collapse that Pittsburgh has had at the plate, which has been on full display this month.

The Pirates have struggled to generate any offense in July, scoring just 3.36 runs per game. That has coincided with Pittsburgh posting a 63 wRC+ and .262 BABIP since July 1st, both of which rank in the bottom five of the majors in that timeframe.

Additionally, Pittsburgh owns a 25.8% strikeout rate and .593 OPS this month, further proving this team’s struggles at the plate.

Rich Hill (7-9 record, 4.76 ERA) is tasked with trying to slow down Cleveland’s offense this afternoon in order to keep a struggling Pirates offense in the game. The 43-year-old has certainly shown signs of his age this year, with his fastest pitch coming in at 88.1 mph (Baseball Savant), but he still ranks in the top 55% in average exit velocity allowed and doesn’t surrender a concerning amount of hard contact.

What’s the Play?

It is becoming hard to comprehend just how bad the Pirates have been at the plate recently. To make matters worse, Pittsburgh owns a 67 wRC+ and 25.2% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers this month, which is what Civale is. We think it’s unlikely that the struggles suddenly end today.

However, that doesn’t mean that the Pirates are entirely out of this game. Rich Hill is certainly not going to overpower anyone on the mound, but the Guardians offense owns a 93 wRC+ against lefties this month and is due for a ton of offensive regression after the last two days.

Neither pitcher surrenders much hard contact, and neither offense is particularly good at generating runs in bunches, despite what the last two games say for Cleveland. We agree with our model that a low-scoring contest is likely this afternoon.

3-star play: Under 9 (-105)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Texas Rangers- 57-39 overall this season, 32-18 as the home team, 5-0 in last five games

• Philadelphia Phillies- 52-42 overall this season, 26-17 as the home team, 4-0 in last four games

• San Francisco Giants- 54-41 overall this season, 28-19 as the away team, 7-0 in last seven games

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Cleveland Guardians- Under is 53-39-3 this season, second-highest win percentage in MLB

• Texas Rangers- Over is 49-39-8 this season, 28-16-6 as the home team

• Philadelphia Phillies- Under is 47-38-9 this season, 21-17-5 as the home team

Run Line Trends➕➖

• Cincinnati Reds- Run line is 60-36 this season, 20-13 as a home underdog

• Washington Nationals- Run line is 53-42 this season, 33-15 as a road underdog

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com.

💥Diamondbacks, Braves combine for 29 runs. The Arizona Diamondbacks and Atlanta Braves began their three-game series with an offensive clinic, combining for 29 runs and 27 hits across nine innings last night. 12 of those 29 runs were scored in the first two innings, setting the tone for what would be an intense back-and-forth battle. Christian Walker and Austin Riley each led the way for their respective teams with two home runs apiece, but Arizona’s four runs in the final two frames catapulted the Diamondbacks to a 16-13 lead and eventually the victory.

💰 Paul Skenes, Pirates agree to record deal. The No.1 overall pick of the 2023 MLB Draft, LSU pitcher Paul Skenes, got PAID yesterday. According to Jim Callis of MLB.com, the 21-year-old and the Pirates agreed to a $9.2 million signing bonus, breaking the MLB record that was previously held by Detroit Tigers pitcher Spencer Torkelson. Skenes posted an incredible 1.69 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in his final season with LSU, leading the Tigers to a College World Series title in 2023.

✂️ Padres cut Rougned Odor before series with Blue Jays. The San Diego Padres cut infielder Rougned Odor on Tuesday, just a few hours before the team was set to begin a series with the Toronto Blue Jays. Cutting Odor came with a plethora of other moves, which included optioning Austin Nola and Brandon Dixon to Triple-A and recalling infielder Alfonso Rivas. Just like the rest of the Padres, Odor was struggling mightily at the plate this season, batting just .210 with four home runs and 18 RBIs in 59 games.

🤔Is Justin Fields a top-five rushing quarterback in NFL history already? Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields put on a show last season on the ground, tallying 1,143 rushing yards during the regular season despite missing two games. That performance gave Fields enough confidence to say that he is already a top-five rushing QB in NFL history on the “All Things Covered” podcast. The 24-year-old Ohio State product listed Mike Vick, Cam Newton, Lamar Jackson, and Steve Young as the four players he shares the top-five with, and if last season’s rushing performance is any indication then of the future, Fields will be in a position to be at the top of that list one day.

🎰Odds say Dalvin Cook is likely heading to the AFC East. The Minnesota Vikings released four-time Pro Bowl selection Dalvin Cook last month, making the star running back a free-agent for the first time in his career. There has not been much noise about where Cook will land for the 2023 season, but the odds for his next landing spot have been released on DraftKings Sportsbook. Three AFC East teams, the Patriots (+150), Dolphins (+200), and Jets (+400) lead the way, with the Broncos (+1200) and Cowboys (+1500) rounding out the top-five. Cook finished last season with 1,130 rushing yards, making him the most in-demand player left on the free agent market.

🙌Calgary to retire Miikka Kiprusoff’s number next season. Former NHL goaltender Miikka Kiprusoff will have his No.34 raised into the rafters of Scotiabank Saddledome when the Calgary Flames host a retirement ceremony in March of 2024. Kiprusoff played for the Flames from 2003 until 2013, becoming the franchise leader in games played by a goalie (576), wins (305) and shutouts (41). He also set the franchise record for wins in a season with 45 in 2008-2009. Kiprusoff was selected in the fifth round of 1995 NHL Draft by the San Jose Sharks, but was acquired from San Jose in 2003 in a trade that would mark the start of a special run for the goaltender.

Today’s trivia requires you to know a little bit about college football. We’ve given you the logo of the university in which the last five Heisman Trophy winners have attended, and it is your job to guess all five players.

As always, answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Anyone know what has happened on July 19th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On July 19th…

1910- Hall of Fame pitcher Cy Young records his 500th career win in a 5-2 over the Washington Senators, becoming the first pitcher in MLB history to reach the milestone. To this day Young, who would win 511 games in his career, remains the only pitcher to ever reach 500 career wins, with the next closest player being Walter Johnson with 417. As a result of this accomplishment, Young would have an award named after him, which is handed out every season to the best pitcher in the National and American League.

1989- NFL owners vote unanimously to form the World League of American Football. The league would serve as a developmental minor league for the NFL, but would only last until 1993 before going on a two-year hiatus. However, it eventually restarted operations in 1995 with teams in England, Germany, the Netherlands, Scotland, and Maine. The World League of American Football, which later became known as the NFL Europe League, ceased operations in 2007, with the NFL instead opting to play games internationally every season to grow its exposure.

1991- Baltimore Orioles star Cal Ripken plays in his 1,500th consecutive MLB game. Ripken, who played for the Orioles from 1981 to 2001, would go on to stretch his consecutive games played streak to 2,632, which to this day remains an MLB record. Playing almost every day allowed the third baseman to accomplish many things in his career, including being selected to the All-Star game 19 times and winning the AL MVP twice (1983, 1991).

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2022- Caleb Williams

2021- Bryce Young

2020- DeVonta Smith

2019- Joe Burrow

2018- Kyler Murray