In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

Additional Model Predictions & Bonuses ⬇️

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There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 4-5

Over/Under Predictions: 6-3

Run Line Predictions: 3-6

Featured Matchup: 1-0

15 MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all 15 matchups can be found below.

Colorado Rockies @ Chicago White Sox

Model Predicts- Rockies ML, OVER 8.5, White Sox +1.5

The Colorado Rockies will continue their five-game road trip on Friday, with the next stop coming in Chicago to take on the White Sox.

Colorado’s road trip has gotten off to a poor start, losing each of the first two games to the Houston Astros. Those losses brought the Rockies’ season record to a poor 27-53, but that is not worse than the White Sox, who own a 22-61 record entering today’s matchup.

These are arguably the two worst teams in the MLB this season, but our model has spotted some value on Colorado on the road, as well as the over. Let’s dive into why that is.

Colorado Rockies

• Enter today on three-game losing streak

  • One loss to Nationals, two losses to Astros

  • -10 run differential in that span

• Pitching staff has been one of worst groups since June 1st

  • Starters- 6.44 ERA (30th), 4.72 xFIP (27th), .349 BABIP (30th)

  • Relievers- 7.19 ERA (30th), 4.66 xFIP (27th), and .345 BABIP (29th)

• Starting pitcher- Dakota Hudson

  • Pitching to expectations- 5.63 ERA vs 5.52 xERA

  • Ranks in bottom 2% of MLB in strikeout rate (11.9%)

Chicago White Sox

• Fresh off win against Braves on Thursday

  • Beat Atlanta 1-0. Only run came in 1st inning

  • Win snapped four-game losing streak

• Similar to Colorado, bullpen is struggling to hold ground this month

  • 4.94 ERA (24th), 3.61 xFIP (7th), .341 BABIP (28th)

  • Struggling with fly balls- 40.9% Ground Ball rate this month

• Starting pitcher- Drew Thorpe

  • Due for some positive regression- 5.02 ERA vs 4.40 xERA

  • Struggles with control- 16.7% walk rate this season

What’s the Play?

Both Colorado’s and Chicago’s offense don’t bring much to the table, but we agree with our model that the over is the best bet for today’s matchup.

Dakota Hudson and Drew Thorpe are each pitching to contact, as evidenced by both parties owning a strikeout rate below 14%. Sometimes that strategy benefits the pitcher, but more often than not it has left both guys vulnerable on the mound, as evidenced by Hudson surrendering 11 hits and eight runs in just 3.0 innings in his last start. Thorpe is coming off a start in which he allowed just two hits in six innings, but prior to that he surrendered six hits and eight runs in just 3.1 innings of work, and his high walk rate certainly won’t do him any favors moving forward.

Additionally, neither starter has a strong bullpen behind them, with each team’s relievers struggling to keep the ball on the ground this month.

It’s tough to predict how these offenses will perform, but neither team has much stability on the mound today, so we’ll take a chance on backing the over here.

The Play: Over 8.5 (-110)

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Money Line Trends 💰

• Cleveland Guardians- 51-28 overall this season, 25-19 as the away team

• Seattle Mariners- 46-37 overall this season, 27-12 as the home team

• Los Angeles Dodgers- 51-31 overall this season, 26-15 as the away team, and 4-0 in last four games

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Colorado Rockies- Over is 41-37-2 this season, 21-18-1 as the away team

• Chicago Cubs- Under is 44-35-3 this season, 23-17-2 as the away team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Kansas City Royals- Run line is 46-37 this season, 13-9 as a home underdog

🤕 Phillies may lose two stars due to injuries. Philadelphia Phillies star Bryce Harper left Thursday's game against the Miami Marlins with a hamstring injury, and outfielder Kyle Schwarber also exited due to left groin tightness. Manager Rob Thomson stated that the extent of the injuries will be clearer on Friday, while Harper mentioned his uncertainty about the severity of his condition. Harper is having an MVP-caliber season, batting .303 with 20 home runs, while Schwarber has 17 home runs and 49 RBIs this season.

💪 Davis Daniel dominates in first MLB start. Davis Daniel pitched eight shutout innings with eight strikeouts in his first major league start, leading the Los Angeles Angels to a 5-0 victory over the Detroit Tigers. Luis Rengifo hit a two-run homer, while Miguel Sanó and Willie Calhoun also homered, helping the Angels secure their fourth consecutive win. Detroit's Jack Flaherty allowed five runs over 5 2/3 innings, ending his four-game winning streak, as the Angels capitalized on timely hitting and strong pitching.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Former Kentucky basketball player Reed Sheppard was drafted third overall by the Houston Rockets in this week’s NBA Draft. Who was the last Kentucky player to be selected in the top-three prior to Sheppard?

Question #2- Edmonton Oilers star Connor McDavid was the sixth player in NHL history to win the Conn Smythe trophy despite losing the Stanley Cup Finals. Who was the last player to accomplish that same feat, which was done in 2003?

Question #3- Only one active MLB player ranks inside the top-200 in league history for hits. Who is that player?

Anyone know what has happened on June 28th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On June 28th…

1960- Former NFL quarterback John Elway is born in Port Angeles, Washington. Elway stormed onto the football scene during his time at Port Angeles High School, and went on to play college football at Stanford University. He would later be selected with the No.1 overall pick in the 1983 NFL Draft by the Denver Broncos, the team he would play his entire career with and lead to two Super Bowls.

1987- Boston Red Sox outfielder Don Baylor is hit by a pitch in a 6-2 win over the New York Yankees. It was the 244^th time in Baylor’s career that he was hit by a pitch, setting a new MLB record. Baylor would go on to collect 267 hit by pitches in his career, which ranks fourth all-time behind Tommy Tucker, Craig Biggio, and Hughie Jennings.

2012- Anthony Davis is selected with the No.1 overall pick in the NBA Draft. Davis was selected by the New Orleans Pelicans, a result of winning the national championship and being the star player at the University of Kentucky the year prior. Davis played for New Orleans until 2019, and currently plays alongside LeBron James on the Los Angeles Lakers.

1. Karl-Anthony Towns

2. Jean-Sebastian Giguere

3. Freddie Freeman