In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions and making it a 3-star play. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 4-0

Over/Under Predictions: 1-3

Run Line Predictions: 2-2

3-star Predictions: 0-1

🚑 Joe Burrow carted off practice field on Thursday. Cincinnati Bengals star quarterback Joe Burrow was the subject of a scary situation at Bengals practice on Thursday. Video from Mike Petraglia shows Burrow rolling out to his right before pulling up, eventually going down onto the turf and receiving medical attention. The early diagnosis is a calf strain after many initially believed it to be a torn achilles, but either way it appears that Burrow, who finished fourth in MVP voting last season, will be sidelined for the foreseeable future and turn the reigns over to Trevor Siemian.

🤕 Jalen Ramsey set to undergo knee surgery, likely to miss six to eight weeks. Newly acquired Miami Dolphins cornerback Jalen Ramsey joined Joe Burrow as players to get carted off the field on Thursday, but Ramsey’s situation appears to be far more severe. Ramsey suffered a meniscus injury at Dolphins practice yesterday, and according to Tom Pelissero is due to miss six to eight weeks. It is also possible that Ramsey could be sidelined until December if he undergoes a full meniscus repair. Adam Schefter reports that Ramsey’s ACL is intact, but the meniscus injury is still far from and ideal start to the six-time Pro Bowlers tenure in South Beach.

😳 Sean Payton is already making enemies around the NFL. Former New Orleans Saints head coach and current Denver Broncos leader Sean Payton was firing shots left and right on Thursday, specifically at former Broncos head coach Nathaniel Hackett and the New York Jets. In an interview with USA Today Sports, Payton said that the coaching job that Nathaniel Hackett and crew did in 2022 was “one of the worst coaching jobs in the history of the NFL.” Payton also took some jabs at the Jets, where Hackett is the offensive coordinator, saying that New York is spending too much time “trying to win the offseason.”

There are 15 MLB games scheduled to take place today. However, due to lines being unavailable at the time the model was run, our model has predictions for 13 of today’s matchups.

New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles

Model Predicts- Yankees ML, OVER 8.5, Yankees -1.5

The New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles will begin a three-game series on Friday night in what should be a great AL East battle.

New York comes into this one having won four of its last five games, showing that momentum is on its side as the Yankees look to close the eight-game gap that is between them and the Orioles in the division.

Meanwhile, Baltimore is just 3-3 across its last six games and 5-5 in the last ten.

Baltimore is certainly the better team here, but the pitching battle and a familiar face returning to the lineup makes our model lean towards New York tonight. Will we see that prediction come to fruition, or will Baltimore find a way to build positive momentum once again?

New York Yankees

Despite being six games over the .500 mark, the New York Yankees sit in the basement of the loaded AL East division. Part of the reason for that was the absence of Aaron Judge as he nursed a toe injury, but it appears that the 2022 AL MVP will be back in the lineup tonight.

The Yankees went just 19-23 without Judge in the lineup, who suffered a toe injury after crashing into a fence while making a catch against the Dodgers. As one might expect, the offense fell apart without the slugger in the lineup, posting an 87 wRC+ and .251 BABIP. Both marks ranked in the bottom four of the major leagues.

However, when Judge was healthy the Yankees were an above-average offense, seeing their wRC+ rise to 101 while posting the 14th highest OPS. A big bat like his should get the offense back to its old ways.

Gerrit Cole (9-2 record, 2.78 ERA) will get the start on the mound for New York tonight as well, giving the Yanks a significant edge over Baltimore.

While there are some concerns surrounding Cole, most notably his Hard Hit and Barrel rates, the right-hander is in the midst of another Cy Young worthy season. The 32-year-old has seen his strikeouts drop (27.6%), but he is still generating great velocity on his fastball (96.8 mph), while walking just 6.9% of the betters he faces, per Baseball Savant.

Baltimore Orioles

The Baltimore Orioles still hold a 1.5-game lead in the AL East, but there is reason to believe that lead might get smaller this evening.

First, Baltimore has struggled to get much going at the plate since the All-Star break, posting a .684 OPS, .275 BABIP, and 24.2% strikeout rate. The Orioles rank in the bottom 12 of the majors in all three categories in that time.

What is even more concerning is Baltimore’s struggles against right-handed pitching, which it will be facing today with Gerrit Cole. According to FanGraphs, Baltimore owns an MLB-worst 67 wRC+ against righties since the All-Star Break ended, a result of posting a .267 wOBA (weighted on base %) and .259 BABIP.

As previously mentioned, Baltimore is at a significant disadvantage on the mound today as well, with Grayson Rodriguez (2-2 record, 6.91 ERA) set to get the start.

Rodriguez has posted a 5.29 ERA since his return from the minors, which is an improvement from his season average but obviously still a concern. His season xERA comes in at 5.72, a sign that he may show improvement in the future, but the right-hander ranks in the bottom 1% of the majors in Hard Hit rate (51.2%) and bottom 10% in average exit velocity (91.2 mph) and Barrel rate (11.7%).

What’s the Play?

Records state that Baltimore is the better team. However, the Yankees have held their ground against Baltimore this season, going 5-5 in the season series, and we agree with our model that New York can do so again tonight.

The edge on the mound is hard to ignore. Yes, Cole is vulnerable to allowing hard contact and occasionally struggles to avoid the barrel, but Baltimore’s offense has been nonexistent against righties over the last two weeks. Grayson Rodriguez has the same struggles, which will likely balance out any damage that is done against Cole.

Aaron Judge is back in the lineup against one of the MLB’s worst pitchers, one that has surrendered 11 homers in his last 31.2 innings. Our model thinks New York should be favored with odds around -160, so we’ll back them at -120.

3-star play: Yankees ML (-120)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Miami Marlins- 55-48 overall this season, 31-20 as the home team

• New York Yankees- 54-48 overall this season, were 35-25 prior to Aaron Judge injury

• Minnesota Twins- 54-50 overall this season, 21-12 against division opponents (Play AL Central rival Kansas City tonight)

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Baltimore Orioles- Over is 51-43-8 this season, 18-12-1 against division opponents (Play AL East rival New York tonight)

• New York Mets- Under is 57-41-4 this season, 30-14-2 as the home team

• Milwaukee Brewers- Under is 57-42-4 this season, 29-19-2 as the away team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Cincinnati Reds- Run line is 67-37 overall this season, 30-12 as a road underdog

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com.

📦 San Diego willing to trade its star players. The San Diego Padres own a 49-54 record and sit 10 games back from first place in the AL West, sparking the club to say that it is willing to trade some its star players. According to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, the Padres have begun listening to trade offers for Juan Soto, Josh Hader, and Blake Snell, three guys that would be a welcome addition to any ball club. Heyman also states that the Padres could be buyers at the August 1st trade deadline, but Snell and Hader are set to become free agents after this season and Soto will follow at the conclusion of the 2024 campaign.

🤔 Is the Nolan Arenado era coming to an end in St. Louis? Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado is reportedly being shopped around by St. Louis ahead of the trade deadline. According to Jorge Castillo, the Cardinals have engaged in trade talks with the Los Angeles Dodgers surrounding Arenado, and could also send pitchers Jack Flaherty and Jordan Montgomery to the West Coast in the deal. Castillo reports St. Louis would want young pitching in return, and could also receive Max Muncy and/or Chris Taylor in what would be a blockbuster trade.

⭐️ Shohei Ohtani shines bright in doubleheader against Detroit. The Los Angeles Angels said that Shohei Ohtani is no longer on the trade block and will be staying with the team through the end of the season, and that decision has already paid off. Los Angeles went 2-0 on Thursday against the Detroit Tigers thanks to Ohtani, who pitched a one-hit complete game in the first matchup, striking out eight batters along the way. The two-way star then dominated at the plate in Game 2, hitting two home runs to extend his league-leading total to 38. The Angels now own a 54-49 record and sit three games back of a wild care spot in the West.

👀 Ben Simmons expected to enter season 100% healthy. After a plethora of back injuries over the last two seasons, it is being reported that Brooklyn Nets point guard Ben Simmons will enter the 2023-24 season 100% healthy. Per Ian Begley, Simmons is done with the rehab portion of his offseason plan, and has now shifted his focus entirely to conditioning and skill work. Brooklyn acquired the three-time All-Star and former All-NBA player from Philadelphia in 2022, but he has played just 42 games in a Nets uniform and is coming off a season in which he averaged a career-low 6.9 points per game.

🥇 Could Joel Embiid play for the U.S. in the 2024 Olympics? Philadelphia 76ers star Joel Embiid, a native of Cameroon, has been approached about the possibility of suiting up for the United States at next summer’s Olympic games. USA Basketball managing director Grant Hill said on SiriusXM NBA Radio that he has spoken with Embiid, but followed up the statement with “but we’ll see how that plays out.” Embiid has American and French citizenship and can play for either country on the international stage, but he will have to definitively pick a side before he is chosen to be on either roster.

✍️ Ottawa signs Tarasenko to one-year deal. The Ottawa Senators and Vladimir Tarasenko have come to terms on a one-year contract that is worth $5 million, meaning the 31-year-old will suit up for a Canadian team for the first time in his career. Tarasenko was an unrestricted free agent, fielding offers form the Hurricanes, Panthers, and Sharks before choosing Ottawa. The Russian-born star played the first 10 years of his career in St. Louis, but was traded to the New York Rangers in February, where he tallied eight goals and 13 assists across 31 games. The aging wing man has proven that he still has some gas left in the tank when healthy, but a persistent shoulder injury has kept him off the ice often over the last two seasons.

Today’s trivia requires you to did deep into your college football and NFL Draft memory bank. We’ve given you the logos of the last five teams to select a quarterback from Ohio State University in the NFL Draft, and it is your job to name all five players. The year the team made the pick is above the logo.

As always, answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Anyone know what has happened on July 28th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On July 28th…

1989- Atlanta Braves outfielder Dale Murphy hits two 3-run home runs in the same inning in a 10-1 blowout win against the San Francisco Giants. Murphy became the 14th player in MLB history to hit two homers in the same inning, and also tied the record for RBIs in one inning with six. That record would eventually be broken by Fernando Tatis in 1999 when he hit two grand slams in one inning, but Murphy’s name still remained at the top of the record book for a decade.

1991- Montreal Expos pitcher Dennis Martínez throws a perfect game in a 2-0 victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers. Martínez became just the 13th pitcher in MLB history to toss a perfect game, and he was also the first pitcher born outside of the United States to hold his opponent without a hit or walk. The performance was just one brief glimpse into the four-time All-Star’s dominance on the mound during his 23-year career, one that saw Martínez post a 245-193 record, 3.70 ERA, and 2,149 strikeouts.

1996- New York Yankees slugger Darryl Strawberry hits his 300th career home run in 3-2 victory over the Kansas City Royals. The homer was a walk-off two-run shot in the bottom of the ninth inning, ending a 6-for-30 stretch and 48 straight at-bats without a home run for the star right fielder. Strawberry would go on to play a key role for the Yankees for the rest of the 1996 season after being acquired on July 7th of that year, with his power catapulting the Yanks to another World Series victory.

2023- C.J. Stroud

2021- Justin Fields

2019- Dwayne Haskins

2016- Cardale Jones

2007- Troy Smith