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Two Best Bets Today

In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

  • Yesterday’s Model Recap

  • NBA Model Predictions, Analysis, Trends, and News

  • NHL Model Predictions, Analysis, Trends, and News

  • Trivia Questions

  • On This Day in History…

Yesterday’s Model Recap

There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the NBA and NHL, with our model focusing in on two of those predictions in our Featured Matchups. Those predictions went 1-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model’s performed below.

NBA Model Results

Money Line Predictions: 1-3

Over/Under Predictions: 2-2

Spread Predictions: 3-1

Featured Matchup: 0-1

NHL Model Results

Money Line Predictions: 4-7

Over/Under Predictions: 7-4

Puck Line Predictions: 7-4

Featured Matchup: 1-0

NBA🏀

Houston Rockets center Alperen Sengun (Jacob Kupferman/Getty Images)

Today’s Model Predictions

A big slate of NBA basketball is on the horizon, with 20 of the Association’s 30 teams scheduled to hit the hardwood. Our model’s predictions for every matchup can be found below.

Featured Matchup🎰

Atlanta Hawks @ Houston Rockets
Model Predicts- Rockets ML, UNDER 233.5, Rockets -3.5

The Atlanta Hawks will begin a short two-game road trip on Wednesday, with the first stop coming in Houston, Texas to take on the Rockets.

Atlanta enters this matchup fresh off a six-point victory against the lowly Detroit Pistons, but the win only pushed the Hawks’ record to 11-15 for the season. Meanwhile, Houston owns a 13-11 record despite dropping two consecutive games to the Bucks and Cavaliers.

The Rockets have been one of the more dominant teams in the NBA while on their home court, and our model doesn’t expect that to change today. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Atlanta Hawks
  • Have struggled during December

    • 2-6 overall since December 1st. Wins over Raptors and Pistons

    • -2.5 Net Rating in that time

  • Poor defense has caused losing stretch

    • 122.7 Defensive Rating this month- 26th in NBA

    • Opponents shooting 51.9% overall and 40.7% from three

  • Plethora of injuries affecting depth

    • Jalen Johnson, AJ Griffin are out, Bogdan Bogdanovic is questionable

Houston Rockets
  • Enter tonight on two-game losing streak

    • Lost to Bucks and Cavaliers by single digits

    • Still 6-3 in December

  • Elite team while playing at home

    • 11-1 record at home, 2-10 record on the road

    • +12.6 Net Rating in 12 home games

  • Defense has been difference maker this season

    • Rank 2nd in Defensive Rating (109.4). Improved to 107.5 in December

    • Opponents shooting 43.4% overall and 29.3% from three this month

What’s the Play?

The Houston Rockets have stumbled into a bit of a cold spell, but we agree with our model that Houston can bounce back and cover the spread tonight.

The Rockets have been nearly unstoppable at home this season, with their only home loss coming against the Warriors back on October 29th. Since then we’ve seen Houston win by nearly 13 points per game on its home court, a bad sign for a struggling Hawks team.

Atlanta’s nonexistent defensive presence has put them in several tough spots this season, and as a result our model believes the Hawks will have a hard time keeping up with the Rockets on both ends. We’ll back Houston as a home favorite.

The Play: Rockets -3.5 (-115)

Relevant Betting Trends

  • Los Angeles Clippers- 16-10 overall this season, 8-0 in last eight games

  • Houston Rockets- 13-11 overall this season, 11-1 as the home team

  • Houston Rockets- Under is 15-9 this season, 9-3 as the home team

  • Chicago Bulls- Over is 17-11 this season, 8-6 as the home team

  • New York Knicks- 13-11-2 against the spread (ATS) this season, 8-7-1 ATS as the away team

  • Houston Rockets- 15-7-2 ATS this season, 4-0-1 ATS as a home favorite

News Around the League

🤬 Brooks, Udoka fined for language toward officials. Houston Rockets player Dillon Brooks and head coach Ime Udoka received fines of $35,000 and $25,000, respectively, from the league on Tuesday. The fines resulted from both parties directing inappropriate language towards a game official.This comes after Brooks received a $25,000 fine in October for "reckless" contact with an opponent, and as the 27-year-old Brooks averages 14 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 1.7 assists in his first season with the Rockets, while Udoka has guided the team to a 13-11 record in his inaugural season as head coach.

💪 Morant leads comeback in return from suspension. Ja Morant marked his season return with a spectacular 34-point performance, sealing a 24-point comeback against the New Orleans Pelicans with a buzzer-beating game-winner. His fourth-quarter heroics gave the Memphis Grizzlies their first late lead since the second quarter, contributing significantly to the team's 62 points in the paint. Despite Morant's absence due to a 25-game suspension, the Grizzlies secured a crucial victory, supported by notable performances from Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane, while New Orleans' Brandon Ingram led with 34 points.

NHL🏒

Los Angeles Kings goalie Cam Talbot (Icon Sportswire/Getty Images)

Today’s Model Predictions

After a busy day on Tuesday, the NHL has given us just three games today. Our model’s predictions for all three matchups can be found below.

Featured Matchup🎰

Seattle Kraken @ Los Angeles Kings
Model Predicts- Kings ML, UNDER 6, Kraken +1.5

The Seattle Kraken will make the journey down the West Coast to battle the Los Angeles Kings on Wednesday night.

Seattle enters tonight’s Pacific division battle in the midst of a two-game losing streak, one that has pushed the Kraken record to a poor 10-14-9. Meanwhile, the Kings have won two consecutive games, giving Los Angeles a 18-6-4 record for the season.

Our model doesn’t show much value on either one of these teams, but it has spotted a slight edge on the total in tonight’s game. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Seattle Kraken
  • Offensive struggles have plagued team this season

    • Rank 27th in GF/60 in 5-on-5 situations

    • Generate 5th fewest high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes (HDCF/60) in 5-on-5

  • Make up for offensive struggles on defensive end

    • Rank 4th in xGA/60 in 5-on-5 situations, surrender 6th fewest shots on goal per game

  • Expected goalie- Joey Daccord

    • .925 Save % in 5-on-5. Ranks 72nd in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) with -4.9

Los Angeles Kings
  • Best defense in NHL this season

    • Rank in top-3 in xGA/60 in 5-on-5 situations, power play kill, and opponent shots on goal per game

    • Surrender 8.80 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes in 5-on-5

  • Offense is just as elite

    • Rank 2nd in xGF/60 in 5-on-5 behind Vancouver

  • Expected goalie- Cam Talbot

    • .924 Save % in 5-on-5. Ranks 6th in GSAx (+10.9)

What’s the Play?

The Kings and Kraken have both been defensive powerhouses this season, and we agree with our model that will force a low-scoring game.

One thing both of these teams do well is limit pressure on their own goaltender. Seattle and L.A. each rank inside the top-5 in high-danger scoring chances against per 60 minutes in 5-on-5 situations, highlighting that it is difficult find high-quality scoring chances against either squad.

Daccord has been a little shaky in net, but has allowed two goals or less in five of his last six appearances, while Talbot has been great all season long. Expect a defensive battle in this one.

The Play: Under 6 (+100)

Relevant Betting Trends

  • Winnipeg Jets- 18-9-3 overall this season, 9-5-2 as the home team

  • Los Angeles Kings- 18-6-4 overall this season, 6-3-1 as the home team

  • Detroit Red Wings- Over is 18-13 this season with average total of 6.74

  • Los Angeles Kings- Under is 16-11 this season with average total of 6.07

  • Detroit Red Wings- Puck line is 19-12 this season

News Around the League

💪 Rangers snap Maple Leafs’ point streak. The New York Rangers secured a 5-2 victory over the Toronto Maple Leafs on Tuesday, with Mika Zibanejad scoring twice and Igor Shesterkin making 31 saves. The Rangers, boasting the best record in the Eastern Conference at 22-7-1, saw goals from Braden Schneider, Alexis Lafreniere, and Artemi Panarin, while former Leafs defenseman Erik Gustafsson and Blake Wheeler each contributed three assists. Despite Auston Matthews' two goals for Toronto, ending his team's nine-game point streak, Martin Jones suffered his first loss of the season after going 3-0-0 with a .949 save percentage since his recall from the minors.

Trivia Section🧠

Former New York Yankees owner George Steinbrenner (Robert Caplin/The New York Times)

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- What university has produced the most NFL Draft picks?

Question #2- How many NBA players have scored at least 70 points in a single game?

Question #3- How much did George Steinbrenner pay to acquire the New York Yankees in 1973?

On This Day in History🗓

Former Montreal Canadiens star Guy Lafleur (ESPN)

Anyone know what has happened on December 20th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On December 20th…

1966- The NBA awards Seattle, Washington with its own franchise. The team would later be known as the Seattle SuperSonics, and they would officially join the NBA for the 1967-68 season. The SuperSonics stayed in Seattle until the conclusion of the 2007-08 season, when the franchise moved to Oklahoma City and changed its name to the Thunder.

1983- Montreal Canadiens star Guy Lafleur scores his 500th career goal. Steve Shutt, Lafleur’s linemate, scored his 400th career goal during the same game, which the Canadiens won 6-0. Lafleur would end his career with 560 goals, which currently ranks him 28th in NHL history.

1991- The NHL approves two expansion teams, the Tampa Bay Lightning and Ottawa Senators. The teams were the 23rd and 24th teams in the NHL, added during a time of rapid expansion. Tampa Bay would go on to finish the season 23-54-7, while Ottawa was much worse at 10-70-4.

Trivia Answers

  1. Notre Dame

  2. 8

  3. $8,700,000