In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

Yesterday was a slow start to the week, with only two NBA games, one NHL game, and four MLB games receiving predictions from our models. However, our models took advantage of the small slate, posting a winning record in each sports and going 2-0 on 3-star plays.

Money Line Predictions: 1-1

Over/Under Predictions: 2-0

Spread Predictions: 2-0

3-star Predictions: 1-0

Money Line Predictions: 1-0

Over/Under Predictions: 0-0

Puck Line Predictions: 0-1

3-star Predictions: 0-0

Money Line Predictions: 3-1

Over/Under Predictions: 3-1

Run Line Predictions: 3-1

3-star Predictions: 1-0

Today there are two more NBA games scheduled to take place. The Miami Heat and New York Knicks will face off in Game 2 of their series after the Heat won Game 1, and the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors will begin their series in what should be an exciting Western Conference semifinal.

Miami Heat @ New York Knicks

Model Predicts- Knicks ML, OVER 206.5, Knicks -6.5

The Miami Heat and New York Knicks will square off in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference semifinals on Tuesday night.

The Miami Heat continued their stellar postseason with a 108-101 win in Game 1. Miami is now 5-1 overall in the playoffs, a big surprise for the Eastern Conference’s No.8 seed.

New York came up short in Game 1, with injuries playing a big factor as Julius Randle missed the matchup.

Both Miami and New York are banged up and have several key players listed on the injury report, but our model has still identified a 3-star play. Let’s dive into the matchup and make a betting pick for Game 2 of the Miami Heat vs New York Knicks series.

Miami Heat

The Miami Heat have been spectacular since the opening tip of their series against Milwaukee. As previously mentioned the Heat are 5-1 overall in the postseason, quite the accomplishment after nearly losing to the Chicago Bulls in the final Play-In game.

Miami finds itself in this position because of a massive spike in offensive production. During the regular season this heat team could not buy a bucket, ranking 25th in Offensive Rating (112.3) and last in points per game (109.5). However, that Offensive Rating has risen to 118.2 and Miami has scored an average of 121.3 points per game in six postseason games. This offense has completely flipped the script.

However, things are going to get much harder for Miami on the offensive end in this one. Jimmy Butler is questionable with an ankle injury that occurred at the end of Game 1, an injury that left him unable to walk for a period of time.

Butler’s absence would be a massive blow for Miami. Butler has accounted for 29% of Miami’s points in the playoffs, so a huge chunk of the scoring would evaporate if he sits.

New York Knicks

Game 1 was certainly not one for the Knicks to be proud of. New York went into the half up 55-50, but followed that up by scoring just 46 points in the second half.

New York’s offensive output has been far from impressive, and the low point total of 101 in Game 1 is a concerning trend. According to NBA.com New York owns a 107.2 Offensive Rating in the postseason, the fourth lowest among the 16 playoff teams.

Poor shooting efficiency is the main culprit of the low offensive output. The Knicks have shot just 43.8% from the floor as a team, but even worse is New York shooting 26.8% from behind the arc. This team doesn’t have much of an offensive identity at the moment, leading to just 99.8 points per game.

To make matters worse, the injury bug is making its way around the locker room. Julius Randle is still dealing with the ankle injury that forced him to miss Game 1, and Jalen Brunson popped up on the injury report on Monday with an ankle injury as well.

What’s the Play?

The key to this game is all of the ankle injuries. However, even with Randle and Brunson listed as questionable, we agree with our model that the Knicks can cover this spread.

Miami is in a great position being up 1-0, leaving room for some error. Considering that Game 3 of this series won’t be played until Saturday, we believe that Jimmy Butler is likely to miss this matchup as the worse case scenario is Miami going back home with the series tied 1-1 and its best player healthier.

On the other hand, we expect Randle and Brunson to suit up, which should get this Knicks offense back on track in what is essentially a must-win game.

According to our models Butler and Tyler Herro are worth 4.3 points on the spread, while the only player New York is likely to not have at its disposal is Jericho Sims, who is worth just 0.77 points on the spread. That gives New York a 3.53 point advantage on top of the original model projection of Knicks -4.07 if everyone was healthy. We agree with the model to back the Knicks on the spread here.

3-star play: Knicks -6.5 (-110)

Money Line Trends

• Miami Heat- 5-1 overall in postseason, 3-1 as the road team

• New York Knicks- 4-2 overall in postseason, 2-1 as the home team

• Los Angeles Lakers- 4-2 overall in postseason, 1-2 as the road team

• Golden State Warriors- 4-3 overall in postseason, 2-1 as home team

Over/Under Trends

• Miami Heat- Over is 6-0 in postseason. Average total in four road games is 242.5

• New York Knicks- Over is 1-5 in postseason. Average point total in three home games is 194.0

• Los Angeles Lakers- Over is 2-4 in postseason, 1-2 as the away team

• Golden State Warriors- Over is 3-4 in postseason, 1-2 as home team

Spread Trends

• Miami Heat- 5-1 against the spread (ATS) in postseason, 3-1 ATS as away team

• New York Knicks- 4-2 ATS in postseason, 2-1 ATS as home team

• Los Angeles Lakers- 4-2 ATS in postseason, 1-2 ATS as away team

• Golden State Warriors- 3-4 ATS in postseason, 1-2 ATS as home team

Miami Heat @ New York Knicks

• Miami Heat

  • Victor Oladipo (OUT), Tyler Herro (OUT), Jimmy Butler (Game Time Decision), Haywood Highsmith (Game Time Decision)

• New York Knicks

  • Julius Randle (Game Time Decison), Jalen Brunson (Game Time Decison), Jericho Sims (Game Time Decision)

Los Angeles Lakers @ Golden State Warriors

• Los Angeles Lakers

  • LeBron James (Game Time Decison), Anthony Davis (Game Time Decision), Mo Bamba (Game Time Decision)

• Golden State Warriors

  • Andre Iguodala (OUT), Patrick Baldwin (Game Time Decision), Ryan Rollins (OUT)

🥷 76ers steal Game 1 in Boston. The Philadelphia 76ers stepped up to the plate last night to defeat Boston 119-115 in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference semifinals. James Harden led the way with 45 points for Philadelphia, a new playoff career high for the elite scorer. It was the first time since 1981 that Philadelphia won a Game 1 in Boston.

☀️ Suns collapse in fourth quarter, go 0-2 in Denver. The Phoenix Suns fell apart in the late stages of Monday night’s matchup with the Nuggets. Phoenix entered the fourth quarter up 70-73, but scored just 14 points in the final 12 minutes which allowed Denver to pull away. Devin Booker led the way for the Suns with 35 points, but Nikola Jokic’s 39 points, 16 rebounds, and 5 assists proved to be too much in the end. Game 3 will take place on Friday in Phoenix.

Today there are two NHL matchups scheduled to take place. The Florida Panthers will carry their momentum north of the border to Toronto to take on the Maple Leafs, and the Seattle Kraken will be hunting for another upset as they take on the Dallas Stars

There are no 3-star plays in the NHL today.

Money Line Trends

• Florida Panthers- 4-3 overall in postseason, 3-0 in last three games

• Toronto Maple Leafs- 4-2 overall in postseason, 1-2 as home team

• Seattle Kraken- 4-3 overall in postseason, 3-1 as away team

• Dallas Stars- 4-2 overall in postseason, 2-1 as home team and 3-0 in last three games

Over/Under Trends

• Florida Panthers- Over is 5-2 in postseason, 3-1 as road team

• Toronto Maple Leafs- Over is 4-2 in postseason, 2-1 as home team

• Seattle Kraken- Over is 1-6 in postseason, 0-4 as road team

• Dallas Stars- Over is 2-4 in postseason, 1-2 as home team

Puck Line Trends

• Florida Panthers- Puck line is 4-3 overall, 3-1 as away team

• Toronto Maple Leafs- Puck line is 2-4 overall, 1-2 as home team

• Seattle Kraken-Puck line is 5-2 in postseason, 4-0 as away team

• Dallas Stars- Puck Line is 3-3 in postseason, 2-1 as home team

Florida Panthers @ Toronto Maple Leafs

• Florida Panthers

  • Ryan Lomberg (OUT)

• Toronto Maple Leafs

  • Matt Murray (OUT)

Seattle Kraken @ Dallas Stars

• Seattle Kraken

  • Andre Burakovsky (OUT), Jared McCann (OUT)

• Dallas Stars

  • Joe Pavelski (Day-to-Day)

😈 Devils advance to Round 2, defeat Rangers in Game 7. The New Jersey Devils dominated their Game 7 matchup against the New York Rangers, winning by a final score of 4-0. Akira Schmid, New Jersey’s goalie, was the hero of the matchup as he saved all 31 shots he faced and allowed just eight goals across the five starts he made in the series. The Devils lost the first two games of the series, but went 4-1 across the final five games and will now face the Hurricanes in Round 2.

🔥 Flames fire head coach. The Calgary Flames announced on Monday that they have fired head coach Darrly Sutter. This was Sutter’s second time as the head coach of the Flames, but this time around he last only three seasons. Flames star Jonathan Huberdeau came out and said that “having a new coach is going to help my game and confidence , too”, which seemed to be the general mindset around the team and front office. The Flames ended the season with a 38-27-17 record, missing the playoffs for the second time in three seasons.

There are 15 MLB games scheduled to take place, but due to some gaps in early season data our model has generated predictions for nine of today’s matchups.

Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox

Model Predicts- Twins ML, Over 8.5, Twins -1.5

The Minnesota Twins will kick off a six-game road trip on Tuesday evening with a stop in Chicago to take on the White Sox.

Minnesota has had a tremendous season up to this point, entering today with a 17-12 record. That record is good enough for first in the AL Central, a division where the Twins are the only team above .500.

The opposite is true of the White Sox. Chicago did just pick up a win against the Rays on Sunday, but that was Chicago’s eighth win of the season to go along with 21 losses.

The gap in talent here in this matchup is quite large, but any divisional battle will likely lead to a good game. Will we see the White Sox defend their home field again and get another upset, or will the Twins take advantage of playing against a far inferior team?

Minnesota Twins

The Minnesota Twins have played rather impressive baseball this season. We’ve already discussed how they have done overall, but Minnesota has a ton of momentum on its side this evening as it enters today’s matchup having won six of its last eight games.

In that eight game stretch the Twins have posted a +18 run differential, holding its opponents to 3.75 runs per game. That is a sign of some tremendous work on the mound, which is perhaps the strongest aspect of this Twins squad.

According to TeamRankings Minnesota owns a 3.48 team ERA, the fifth lowest ERA in the majors. The Twins bullpen is right in the middle of the pack with a 3.82 ERA, a sign of some troubles in the late innings, but Minnesota’s starter often put the team in a great position to win baseball games.

That will likely be the case today with Joe Ryan (5-0, 2.81 ERA) getting the start today for the Twins. Ryan has been excellent on the mound this season, ranking in the 80th percentile in Strikeout % and 93rd percentile in Walk %, per Baseball Savant. He is vulnerable to allowing some hard contact, but it hasn’t often led to the 26-year-old allowing baserunners.

Chicago White Sox

Not many good things can be said about the Chicago White Sox. This team has the talent to win baseball games, but it hasn’t been able to piece together any momentum this season.

The cause of Chicago’s demise is its pitching staff. Chicago ranks 29th in team ERA at 5.96, with that ERA rising to 7.02 while playing in its home stadium.

The bullpen takes most of the blame for that ranking, largely because their ERA comes in at 6.86, the worst in the MLB. The bullpen has surrendered 20 home runs, 57 walks, and owns a WHIP of 1.76, all of which rank in the bottom two of the MLB, per Covers.

Things likely won’t get any better this evening with Michael Kopech (0-3 record, 7.01 ERA) set to get the start. Kopech only has one start where he has allowed less than three earned runs, largely because he ranks in the bottom 1% of the MLB in Barrel % (10.9%) and bottom 2% in Hard Hit % (58.1%) (Baseball Savant). Teams have lit Kopech up this season, and it becomes very difficult for a White Sox team that ranks 22nd in runs per game to make up for it.

What’s the Play?

There is no question which team has more stability on the mound today, and that is often the biggest factor in winning or losing in baseball. As a result, we agree with the model that the Twins should win this game by multiple runs.

The Twins should have no problems squaring up Kopech. Minnesota owns a 9.9 % Barrel %, well above the league average of 8.2%. Kopech can’t seem to prevent hitters from sizing him up, and that will likely remain the case today.

Minnesota has covered the -1.5 run line in all five of Ryan’s starts, winning by an average of five runs per game with him on the mound. We agree with the model that Minnesota can move that record to 6-0 today.

3-star play: Twins -1.5 (+105)

Money Line Trends

• Baltimore Orioles- 10-5 overall as away team

Over/Under Trends

• Houston Astros- Over is 10-6-1 as home team

• San Francisco Giants- Over is 7-5 as away team

Run Line Predictions

• Minnesota Twins- 17-12 on run line this season, 5-0 with Joe Ryan on the mound

Various injuries around the league. Check out the full injury report at MLB.com

👏 Tatis has big night in first home game. Fernando Tatis Jr. had a massive night at the plate last night against Cincinnati, going 3-5 with a run scored. It was Tatis’ first home game since being suspended last season for violating the MLB’s PED policy, a suspension that came right before he was about to return from a wrist injury. Tatis was an All-Star is 2021 and appears to be headed back in that direction after posting a .304 batting average and .811 OPS in 10 games this season.

🤕 Aaron Judge officially on the IL. The New York Yankees announced that they have placed star outfield Aaron Judge on the10-Day injured list as he deals with a strained hip. New York recalled Franchy Cordero from Triple-A.

⏎ Bryce Harper set to return tonight. Phillies star outfielder Bryce Harper will return to the lineup tonight just five months after Tommy John surgery. His return will be the fastest return to play (160 days) after TJ surgery.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

1. The Summer Olympics will take place in Paris, France in 2024 before returning the the United States in 2028 when the event will be held in Los Angeles, California. When was the last time the Summer Olympics were held in the United States, and what city hosted the event?

2. Wilt Chamberlain holds the NBA record for points in a game with 100, and he holds five of the top six spots for most points scored in a game. Kobe Bryant is second on the list which breaks up Chamberlain’s dominance.What is the highest amount of points that Bryant scored in a game?

3. Aroldis Chapman is widely known as the hardest throwing pitcher the MLB has ever seen. In 2010 Chapman threw the fastest pitch in MLB history in a matchup against the San Diego Padres. How fast was that pitch?

4. Polo Grounds was a stadium in New York City that used for football and baseball, known for its odd dimensions. From home plate to left field was 279 feet and to right field was just 258 feet, but how far was the center field wall from home plate?

Anyone know what happened on May 2nd throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it was a busy day.

On May 2nd…

1968- The Boston Celtics and Los Angeles Lakers squared off in the 22nd NBA Finals. Boston won the series 4-2, a series that had an incredible 7 future Hall of Fame players. It was also the last NBA Finals without a Finals MVP as the award was introduced in 1969.

1999- NFL quarterback John Elway officially announces his retirement. Elway played his entire career with the Denver Broncos, winning two Super Bowls and one MVP award. Elway just recently left his executive position with Denver.

2012- Barcelona’s Lionel Messi breaks the European goal scoring record with 68. Messi has scored 805 goals in 1023 career games.

2015- Floyd Mayweather Jr. beats Manny Pacquiao in a 12 round boxing match. The fight brought in more than $600 million in revenue, with Mayweather taking home $240 million and Pacquiao walking away with more than $125 million.

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1. 1996 (Atlanta, Georgia)

2. 81

3. 105.1 mph

4. 483 feet