Some Playoff Basketball and Hockey Alongside Regular Season Baseball

In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were no model predictions for yesterday’s slate of NBA, NHL, and MLB games. Yesterday was a transition day for SportSense, giving us the opportunity to further develop the newsletter.

Money Line Predictions: 0-0

Over/Under Predictions: 0-0

Spread Predictions: 0-0

3-star Predictions: 0-0

Money Line Predictions: 0-0

Over/Under Predictions: 0-0

Spread Predictions: 0-0

3-star Predictions: 0-0

Money Line Predictions: 0-0

Over/Under Predictions: 0-0

Spread Predictions: 0-0

3-star Predictions: 0-0

Today we have just one NBA game scheduled, a matchup between the Phoenix Suns and Denver Nuggets. The last time these two teams met in the playoffs was in 2021, a series that Phoenix dominated on its way to winning the Western Conference.

Phoenix Suns @ Denver Nuggets

Model Predicts- Nuggets ML, OVER 226.5, Nuggets -2.5

The Phoenix Suns will travel to the Mile High City to take on the Denver Nuggets in what is the first game of Round 2 of the NBA postseason.

Phoenix enters today’s matchup coming off a 4-2 series win over the Clippers. Despite Los Angeles being without Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, the Clippers managed to hang around and stay competitive with a Suns that team that has NBA Finals aspirations.

Denver comes into today having beaten Minnesota 4-1 in Round 1. Denver let Game 4 slip away for their only loss of the series and narrowly squeaked out a Game 5 win, showing some signs of vulnerability despite what the series record indicates.

The last time Phoenix and Denver met in the playoffs was in 2021, a series that the Suns won 4-0. Will we see Denver get its revenge this time around, or will a talented Suns offense be too much for the Nuggets to handle? Let’s dive into the matchup and make a betting pick for Game 1 of the Phoenix Suns vs Denver Nuggets Series.

Phoenix Suns

The Phoenix Suns made a massive move at the trade deadline, trading Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson, and a slew of draft picks to the Brooklyn Nets for Kevin Durant.

It’s no secret why that trade made headlines. Devin Booker, Chris Paul, and Deandre Ayton were already a great trio, but now a future Hall of Fame player is thrown into the mix, potentially making the Suns one of the more dominant offensive teams in recent memory.

We saw just how dangerous Phoenix can be on the offensive end in Round 1. According to NBA.com Phoenix posted a 122.5 Offensive Rating through five first round games, the highest rating of any team this postseason. That rating is 3.5 points higher than the next closest team, further proving how lethal the addition of Durant is.

Durant averaged 28.4 points per game in Round 1, but Devin Booker stole the show with his 37.2. Deandre Ayton, Chris Paul, and Torrey Craig each contributed with double-figure scoring averages as well.

This Suns team can flat out score the basketball, and it’s nearly impossible to double team anyone on their roster because there is the risk of leaving another star player wide open. That is going to be Phoenix’s largest advantage in this matchup.

Denver Nuggets

The Western Conference’s No.1 seed left nothing to be desired in Round 1, sending the Timberwolves packing after only five games.

Just like Phoenix, Denver’s largest edge of the series came on on the offensive end of the floor, as evidenced by its 117.2 Offensive Rating in five Round 1 games. That rating was achieved by shooting 48.1% overall and 38.9% from behind the arc, per NBA.com.

However, Denver’s defense may have actual outshone its offense in Round 1. Denver’s 109.6 Defensive Rating is the fifth best amongst the 16 playoff teams. In three postseason home games that rating improved to 107.5, further proving that Denver can hold its ground on the defensive end.

The success of both ends of the floor led to a 7.7 Net Rating in Round 1, the second best in the postseason.

Led by two-time MVP Nikola Jokic, Denver has a great chance of redeeming itself against Phoenix in this series. The defense can be questionable on the road, but while on their home court the Nuggets are one of the most complete teams in the NBA.

What’s the Play?

All in all we have two very high-powered offenses going head-to-head in this series, but we believe the model is correct in leaning towards Denver here.

The offenses are neck and neck when it comes to talent, but Phoenix leaves a lot on the table on the defensive end. The Suns own a 116.2 Defensive Rating this postseason, nearly 9.0 points worse than Denver.

Additionally, Denver has a much stronger bench unit. The Nuggets’ bench averaged 20 points per game in Round 1, while the Suns’ averaged just 14.4.

We’ll take the deeper team with the better defense in this one. The model likes the spread to roughly seven points, giving us a solid bargain at the current spread of 2.5.

3-star play: Nuggets -2.5

Phoenix Suns @ Denver Nuggets

• Phoenix Suns

  • Went 2-3 ATS in Round 1

  • 9-12-1 ATS as an away underdog in the regular season

  • Average margin of victory on the road in regular season was 0.3 points

• Denver Nuggets

  • Went 37-7 at home in the regular season, tied with Memphis for the best record in the NBA. Denver is also a perfect 3-0 at home in the postseason

  • Posted a 27-16-1 against the spread (ATS) record at home during the regular season, the second best in the NBA

  • Average margin of victory at home in the regular season was 10.0 points

Phoenix Suns @ Denver Nuggets

• Phoenix Suns

  • No Players

• Denver Nuggets

  • Collin Gillespie (Lower Leg)

👑 Kings force Game 7. The Sacramento Kings took down the Golden State Warriors in Game 6 last night. Malik Monk led the way for Sacramento, scoring 28 points on 57% shooting. Even with a broken finger, De’Aaron Fox scored 26 points of his own. Game 7 will take place in Sacramento tomorrow night.

🥊 LeBron, Lakers close out the series against Memphis. The No.7 seed Los Angeles Lakers took down the No.2 seed Memphis Grizzlies in dominant fashion last night. LA won by a final score of 125-85, its largest margin of victory in the series. The Lakers await the winner of the Kings/Warriors series.

🖊 Timberwolves star Anthony Edwards cited for assault. Minnesota Timberwolves All-Star Anthony Edwards was cited for assault shortly after Minnesota’s loss to Denver earlier this week. Video shows Edwards picking up a chair out of frustration on his way to the locker room, which reportedly came in contact with two security guards. Edwards’ lawyer says the charges are “baseless”, as Edwards did not throw the chair and simply put it back down.

🏀 Cleveland sticking with J.B. Bickerstaff. The Cavaliers released a statement saying they fully intend to have J.B. Bickerstaff back as their head coach next season despite a first round exit from the playoffs. Cleveland ended the regular season with a 51-31 record, good enough for the No.4 seed in the Eastern Conference. The Cavaliers would go on to lose 4-1 to the New York Knicks in the playoffs, scoring just 94.2 points per game in the series.

👟 Nike, Kevin Durant sign lifetime deal. Future Hall of Famer Kevin Durant and Nike came to terms on a lifetime deal Friday. Durant first signed with Nike back in 2007 during his rookie season, and since has produced 16 signature shoes and countless other pieces of apparel with the company. Durant joins LeBron James and Michael Jordan as the only NBA players to have signed a lifetime deal with Nike.

The NHL has given us three matchups on this fine Saturday. Each matchup currently sits with one team ahead 3-2 in the series, with the Lightning, Rangers, and Kings all trying to force Game 7 to keep their season alive.

There are no 3-Star Plays in the NHL today.

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Tampa Bay Lightning

• Toronto Maple Leafs

  • 2-1 against Tampa Bay in regular season

  • Since 2013, Toronto is 0-13 in the playoffs when it has the chance to eliminate an opponent

  • Averaging 4.2 goals per game in series

• Tampa Bay Lightning

  • Averaging 4.0 goals per game in series

  • 0-2 at home in the series. Goal differential of -2 in those matchups

• Over/Under

  • Over is 2-0 in games played in Tampa Bay, 4-1 overall in the series. Should we fade the model’s prediction under 6.5?

New Jersey Devils @ New York Rangers

• New Jersey Devils

  • Started series down 0-2, now up 3-0

  • 2-0 in games played in New York this series

• New York Rangers

  • Has lost three consecutive games

  • Goal differential of +8 in the first two games of the series. Goal differential of -7 in the last three games

• Over/Under

  • Under is 2-0 in games played in New York, 3-2 overall in the series

Edmonton Oilers @ Los Angeles Kings

• Over/Under

  • Over is 3-2 in the series, 1-1 in games played in Los Angeles

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Tampa Bay Lightning

• Toronto Maple Leafs

  • Matt Murray (Concussion), Erik Gustafsson (Upper Body)

• Tampa Bay Lightning

  • Erik Cernak (Upper Body), Tanner Jeannot (Undisclosed)

New Jersey Devils @ New York Rangers

• New Jersey Devils

  • Jonathan Bernier (Hip)

• New York Rangers

  • No injuries

Edmonton Oilers @ Los Angeles Kings

• Edmonton Oilers

  • Mike Smith (Undisclosed), Mattias Janmark (Foot)

🐅 Panthers force Game 7 against Bruins. After being down 3-1 in the series, the Florida Panther have stormed back and have tied the series at 3-3. Florida beat Boston last night by a score of 7-5, led by Matthew Tkachuk’s two goals. Florida and Boston combined for seven goals in the third period.

🌨 Hurricanes shut the door on the Islanders. The Carolina Hurricanes ended their series against the Islanders last night. Carolina scored just two goals in the matchup, a game that was highlighted by tremendous goaltending from Frederik Andersen and Ilya Sorokin. Last night’s matchup was the second game of the series to go into overtime. Carolina won both games.

⭐️ Dallas advances to Round 2. The Dallas Stars defeated the Minnesota Wild in six games after a 4-2 win last night. Dallas was down 2-1 in the series after Game 3 but allowed just three goals in the final three games to seal the deal.

💰 Ryan Reynolds part of group looking to purchase Senators. Actor Ryan Reynolds is part of a group that will supposedly place a bid to purchase the Ottawa Senators franchise. The bid is supposedly worth $1 billion, and it will give Reynolds, who spent part of his childhood in Ottawa, part ownership of the hockey team that he grew up watching. Ottawa will be the second professional sports team that Reynolds is an owner of, with the first being Welsh football club Wrexham AFC.

There are 17 MLB games scheduled to take place today. However, the model has predictions for ten of those games as some of the data in other matchups is not significant enough for the model to make a prediction with.

Baltimore/Detroit and Pittsburgh/Washington will play double-headers today. The predictions seen below are for the first leg of those matchups.

Cincinnati Reds @ Oakland Athletics

Model Predicts- Reds ML, OVER 7.5, Reds -1.5

The Cincinnati Reds will play their second of six consecutive road games this afternoon when they go head-to-head against the Oakland Athletics.

Cincinnati hasn’t been great this season, entering today with a 11-14 record. However, the Reds have won four straight games and have plenty of momentum on their side.

Meanwhile, Oakland has not found any positive momentum this season. The Athletics enter today with a 5-22 record and have lost six of their last seven games.

Neither one of these teams is particularly strong in any area, but our model has identified a 3-star play in this matchup. Let’s dive into the Reds vs Athletics matchup and see what that 3-star play is.

Cincinnati Reds

The Cincinnati Reds finished the 2022 season in last place of the NL Central, going 62-100 overall. That record put the Reds 31.0 games back of the Cardinals in first, making Cincinnati’s outlook for the future rather bleak.

However, despite owning a losing record this season the Reds appear to have begun the turnaround that this franchise desperately needs.

The biggest improvements for the Reds have come at the plate. Per TeamRankings Cincinnati scored just 4.00 runs per game in 2022, but in 2023 that number has risen to 4.54 and ranks in the top half of the MLB. Over the course of the last three games that number has risen to 7.67, the highest average run total in the league in that span of time.

Coincidentally, the Reds have left an average of 7.67 runners on base in that same three-game stretch. Even though they lead the league in scoring in recent days, the Reds have still left plenty of runs on the table but have shown they have the tools to get runners in scoring position.

Hunter Greene will make the start for Cincinnati. Greene is 0-1 this season with a 3.52 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. Those are solid numbers, but Greene surrenders lots of hard contact and struggles with his control, making him susceptible to some long innings.

Oakland Athletics

The Oakland Athletics are well on their way to another poor season. This team can’t do much right, but the pitching is what really takes the A’s out of many matchups.

Per TeamRankings the Athletics rank last in the MLB in Team ERA at 8.04. The next worse team is the Chicago White Sox at 5.65, further exemplifying just how bad this pitching staff is.

The poor pitching has resulted in a -117 run differential through 27 games. The next worse team in the MLB owns a -61 run differential, and no other team in Oakland’s division is below zero.

Kyle Muller (0-2 record, 7.23 ERA) will look to reverse that trend this afternoon, but he likely isn’t the guy that will do that. Muller enters today with a 2.03 WHIP, showing that he surrenders a ton of baserunners while on the mound.

That WHIP is a result of Muller ranking in the 8th percentile of Strikeout %, 16th percentile in Whiff %, and 32nd percentile in Walk %, per Baseball Savant.

What’s the Play?

Muller being on the mound opens the door wide open for the over, making it a 3-star play in this matchup.

We saw Cincinnati put up 11 runs against Oakland yesterday. Six of those runs came in the final three innings, so even if the Reds can’t get a hold of Muller early on they have proven they can take the Oakland bullpen (7.03 ERA, 1.74 WHIP) for a ride.

The last four games for Cincinnati have seen an average of 13 runs, and the last four games for Oakland have seen an average of 13.75. We like the high-scoring trend to continue this afternoon.

3-star play: Over 7.5 (-115)

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals

• Pittsburgh Pirates

  • 9-4 as the away team this season. 3-0 in their last three road games

• Washington Nationals

  • 2-9 straight up and 4-7 on the run line as the home team this season

Tampa Bay Rays @ Chicago White Sox

• Tampa Bay Rays

  • Tampa is 8-3 straight up and 7-4 on the run line this season

• Chicago White Sox

  • Lance Lynn has yet to pick up a win this season. Opponents are outscoring the White Sox by an average of 4.0 runs per game when Lynn gets the start

Philadelphia Phillies

• Bryce Harper, Taijuan Walker, Rhys Hoskins, Ranger Suárez, Darick Hall

New York Yankees

• Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, Josh Donaldson

St. Louis Cardinals

• Adam Wainwright, Tyler O’Neill

🤕 Aaron Judge joins the long list of injured Yankees. Star outfielder Aaron Judge left Thursday’s matchup against the Rangers with a hip injury, which kept him out of Friday’s game as well. The injuries are starting to pile up in the Bronx, as Judge now joins Giancarlo Stanton, Josh Donaldson, Luis Severino, and Carlos Rodón on the injured list. New York is 15-12 this season, good enough for 4th in the AL East.

🏟 Giants, Padres square off in Mexico City. The Giants and Padres will take their talents south of the border to Mexico City, one of the stops on the MLB’s World Tour. The teams will play in Estadio Alfredo Harp Helú, a stadium that is 7,320 feet above sea level. For reference, Coors Field in Denver, Colorado is 5,200 feet above sea level. The over/under or this game is set at 15 runs, a sign that baseballs will likely be flying in the higher altitude.

✈️ Quarterbacks fly off the shelves in Round 1. Signal callers Bryce Young and CJ Stroud went first and second overall in the 2023 NFL Draft to the Carolina Panthers and Houston Texans. Florida’s Anthony Richardson was the next QB to come off the board at No.4 to the Indianapolis Colts. Kentucky’s Will Levis, who was rumored to potentially be selected first overall, fell out of the first round but was eventually selected by the Titans at pick 33.

👨‍👦 Steelers make legacy draft pick. The Pittsburgh Steelers selected Joey Porter Jr., the cornerback from Penn State, with the 32nd pick in last night’s draft. Porter’s father, Joey Porter Sr., played for the Steelers from 1999-2006 before finishing the remainder of his career with the Dolphins and Cardinals. Porter Jr. recorded one interception and 17 pass break ups in his time as a Nittany Lion, making him a high-demand player in this year’s draft.

💰 Lamar Jackson gets PAID. The Baltimore Ravens and former MVP Lamar Jackson FINALLY agreed to terms on a contract. Jackson signed a five-year deal that is worth up to $260 million ($185 million guaranteed), making him the highest paid player in NFL history. Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts held that title for all of 10 days, relinquishing the throne shortly after signing his new $255 million deal.

❓ Could Chase Young become a free agent after this season? The Washington Commanders won’t pick up Chase Young’s fifth year option, setting the stage for him to become a free agent after the 2023 season. Head Coach Ron Rivera told reporters the organization wants to gauge Young’s “health and commitment” when discussing the idea of not picking up his option earlier in the offseason. Across his three NFL seasons Young has played in 28 games, playing in just three matchups last season and ten the year prior due to knee injuries.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

1. Two LSU Men’s Basketball players have won the player of the year award. Who are they?

2. Michael Phelps is widely regarded as not only the best swimmer ever, but one of the greatest American athletes of all time. How many Olympic medals did Phelps win in his career, and how many are gold medals?

3. Eight NBA players have scored at least 70 points in a game in the league’s history, two of which did it in the 2022-23 season. Name those two players.

4. Wayne Gretzky is the NHL’s all-time leading points scorer with 2,857. That is 936 more points than the player in second. Who is the player behind Gretzky on the all-time list?

5. New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge broke Roger Maris’s American League home run record last season. How many home runs did Judge hit?

Anyone know what has happened on April 29th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On April 29th…

1951- NASCAR legend Dale Earnhardt is born in Kannapolis, North Carolina. Earnhardt would go on to win 7 NASCAR Winston Cup Series Championships in his career.

1981- Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Steve Carlton becomes the first left-handed pitcher to strikeout 3,000 batters. Carlton managed to strikeout 4,136 batters by the end of his career, the fourth most in MLB history.

1986- Auburn running back Bo Jackson is selected first overall by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFL Draft, but turned down their contract offer and never played a snap for the team. Jackson would be entered in the draft the following season, where he was selected in the 7th round by the Raiders.

1993- American golfer Justin Thomas is born in Louisville, Kentucky. Thomas is a two-time Major champion, having won the PGA Championship in 2017 and 2022. He is currently ranked the No.14 golfer in the world.

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1. Pete Maravich and Shaquille O’Neal

2. 28 total medals (23 gold)

3. Donovan Mitchell and Damian Lillard

4. Jaromír Jágr

5. 62