In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the NHL and MLB, with our model focusing in on two of those predictions in our Featured Matchups. Those predictions went 1-1 overall, and you can see how each of the models performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 0-2

Over/Under Predictions: 1-1

Spread Predictions: 2-0

Featured Matchup: 1-0

Money Line Predictions: 0-1

Over/Under Predictions: 0-1

Run Line Predictions: 1-0

Featured Matchup: 0-1

There are many college football games scheduled to take place on this busy Saturday, and our model has predictions for 20 of those matchups. You can find those model predictions below.

Penn State @ Ohio State

Model Predicts- Penn State ML, UNDER 45.5, Penn State +5

The Penn State Nittany Lions will head to Columbus, Ohio on Saturday to take on the Ohio State Buckeyes.

Penn State enters today’s Big 10 matchup a perfect 6-0 on the season, most recently defeating UMASS 63-0. Ohio State is also a perfect 6-0 following a win over Purdue last week.

Today’s game is a pivotal one for each team, and our model believes that the Nittany Lions will take the win in a low scoring game. Let’s take a look at why that is and see our model’s best bet for today’s matchup.

Penn State Nittany Lions

• Arguably the best defense in the country

  • Surrendering just 193.7 yards per game. 40 fewer yards than next closest team (Michigan)

  • Holding opponents to 25% success rate on all downs, 17% on passing downs

  • Great at generating pressure- 3rd most sacks in country (27), create havoc event (tackle for loss, deflection, turnover, etc.) on 31.5% of plays

• Conservative QB, but great running game

  • Drew Allar- completing 65% of passes, 12 TDs and 0 INTs

    • 209 pass yards per game

  • Rank 16th in nation in rush yards per game (203.3), run ball on 55.32% of plays

Ohio State Buckeyes

• If Penn State isn’t the best defense, then Ohio State is

  • Rank 2nd in yards per play (4.00), behind only Penn State

  • 37% opponent success rate on all downs, 31% on passing downs

  • Don’t surrender explosive plays- 4 plays of 30+ yards this season

  • Don’t generate much pressure- 10 sacks this season, havoc event on 18% of plays

• Have had far more success on offense through the air

  • 308 pass yards per game, 135 rush yards per game

    • Running back TreVeyon Henerson is questionable

  • Rank 19th in country in yards per pass attempt (9.6)

What’s the Play?

This matchup features two quarterbacks that still have something to prove and two of the best defenses in the nation, so we’ll back our model’s prediction of the under here.

Penn State’s ability to generate pressure is unmatched by any other team in the country, and Kyle McCord is going to be feeling it all day long. Drew Allar likely won’t face that same level of pressure, but Penn State is a run-heavy team that is perfectly fine with checking the ball down in the pass game, which should help run the clock.

We think this game will be similar to what we saw when Ohio State faced Notre Dame, a defensive-minded game that is going to be decided by whoever has the ball last. We’ll make the under our official play, and we wouldn’t mind sprinkling the Penn State money line.

The Play: Under 45.5 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Penn State- 6-0 overall this season, 2-0 as the road team

• Iowa- 6-1 overall this season, 4-0 as the home team

• West Virginia- 4-2 overall this season, 3-0 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Alabama- Over is 4-2-1 this season, 2-1-1 as the home team

• Missouri- Over is 6-1 this season with average total of 58.71 points per game

• Utah- Under is 5-1 this season, 2-1 against Pac 12 opponents

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Penn State- 6-0 against the spread (ATS) this season, tied for highest win % in NCAA

• Oklahoma- 6-0 ATS this season, 3-0 ATS against Big 12 opponents

🔎 Michigan suspends staffer amid investigation. Michigan football analyst Connor Stalions has been suspended while the NCAA investigates allegations of sign-stealing by the Wolverines. The suspension came after Stalions was identified as a person of interest in the inquiry into whether Michigan violated NCAA rules by scouting future opponents in person at games, a practice banned since 1994. The investigation, which could lead to further penalties, involves an elaborate signal-stealing system in use since at least 2021, and is another blemish for Michigan after head coach Jim Harbaugh was suspended earlier this season.

🤕 Brock Bowers undergoes ankle surgery. Georgia coach Kirby Smart refrained from providing a timeline for the return of star tight end Brock Bowers, who recently underwent TightRope surgery to repair a high ankle sprain. Smart emphasized that his main concern is Bowers' recovery and the well-being of the team, as its best pass catcher is now sidelined for the foreseeable future. The typical recovery time for this procedure is four to six weeks, making Georgia’s road to the SEC title game more challenging.

The inconsistency of the NHL schedule is at an all-time high, with the league giving us 15 games today after only scheduling two yesterday. Our model’s predictions for those matchups can be found below.

Philadelphia Flyers @ Dallas Stars

Model Predicts- Stars ML, OVER 6, Flyers +1.5

The Philadelphia Flyers will begin a short two-game road trip on Saturday, with the first stop coming in Dallas to take on the Stars.

Philadelphia enters this matchup with a stellar 3-1 record and in 1st in the Metropolitan division following a 4-1 win over the Oilers on Thursday. Dallas has also gotten off to a great start, entering today at 2-0-1.

Defense has been the key for both of these teams in the early going, and as a result our model thinks Philadelphia can keep things close against a team that many believe can win the Stanley Cup. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Philadelphia Flyers

• Have been surprisingly good on defensive end thus far

  • Allowing 1.32 goals per 60 minutes (GF/60) in 5-on-5 situations

  • Rank 8th in xGA/60 (2.32) in 5-on-5. Some regression is near, but still a great number

  • Surrendered just one goal to Oilers in last game

• Putting tons of pressure on opposing goaltenders at even strength

  • Generating 14.62 high-danger scoring chances (HDCF/60) in 5-on-5, the 2nd most in NHL this season

  • 33 shots on goal per game ranks just outside of the top-10

• Starting goalie- Carter Hart

  • Ranks 20th in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) with +1.5

  • .951 Save % and .882 High-Danger Save % in 5-on-5 situations

Dallas Stars

• Offense has been slow in the early going

  • 1.67 GF/60 in 5-on-5 situations

  • xGF/60 in similar situations sits at 2.81, and 13.77 HDCF/60 shows that more goals are likely on the horizon

• Defense is the star of the show

  • Allowing just two goals per game through three contests

  • Rank 5th in xGA/60 in 5-on-5 with 2.20

  • 8.76 high danger chances against in 5-on-5 also ranks in top 5, and is down from 10.84 a season ago

• Starting goalie- Jake Oettinger

  • .915 Save % and .867 High-Danger Save % in 5-on-5

  • Ranks 8th in GSAx with +2.8

What’s the Play?

The Flyers have done some unexpected things early on, but the numbers show that only a tiny amount of regression is near. As a result, we’ll back Philly on the puck line here.

Hart has been a brick wall in net thus far, and for the first time in a few years it appears that he may have a competent defense in front of him. Philadelphia’s ability to generate pressure on offense is a great sign too, showing that scoring chances will be available.

We think it’s likely that we have a tightly contested game on our hands here, one that will feature some goals from the Flyers. We’ll take Philly at +1.5.

The Play: Flyers +1.5 (-115)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Colorado Avalanche- 4-0-0 this season, 1-0-0 as the home team

• Boston Bruins- 3-0-0 this season, 1-0-0 as the away team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Minnesota Wild- Over is 3-1 this season with average total of 7.50

Puck Line Trends ➕➖

• Detroit Red Wings- Puck line is perfect 4-0 this season

• Philadelphia Flyers- Puck line is 3-1 this season, 1-1 as the away team

😈 Devils beat Islanders in overtime. Just days after the Islanders relied on their defense rather than their goalie, Ilya Sorokin, they faced the Devils with Sorokin carrying a heavy load. Despite Sorokin's remarkable performance, stopping every shot at even strength, the Islanders suffered their first loss of the season, falling 5-4 to the Devils in overtime. The game was marred by numerous penalties, allowing New Jersey to score four power play goals in the win.

🤕 Fabbri set to be out several weeks. Robby Fabbri will be sidelined for the Detroit Red Wings for four weeks due to a lower-body injury, which occurred in the season opener against the New Jersey Devils. Coach Derek Lalonde clarified that this injury is unrelated to the knee issue that kept Fabbri out for the final month of the previous season. Despite his recurring injury challenges throughout his NHL career, Fabbri has accumulated 169 points in 331 regular-season games, and won a Stanley Cup with the St. Louis Blues in 2019.

There is just one MLB game set to take place today, with that matchup featuring the Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Model Predicts- Phillies ML, Under 8, Diamondbacks +1.5

The Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks will faceoff in a crucial Game 5 on Saturday in Arizona.

Philadelphia appeared to have a 3-1 series lead locked up yesterday, but a late game collapse by Craig Kimbrel and the Phillies bullpen turned the tide in Arizona’s favor, allowing them to tie the series at two games apiece.

Zack Wheeler and Zac Gallen will be back on the mound today for their respective teams, a matchup that favored Philadelphia in Game 1. Let’s see what our model’s best bet is for this matchup.

Philadelphia Phillies

• Had slow start yesterday and collapsed late

  • Did not score until 4th inning, and did not tie game until 5th

  • Four consecutive innings with runs allowed them to build a 5-2 lead, but 4 late runs from Arizona ended the game

• Bullpen is depleted

  • Used 8 different pitchers yesterday, 7 of which came form the bullpen

  • Cristopher Sánchez, who started the game, went just 2.1 innings

• Starting pitcher- Zack Wheeler

  • 2.37 ERA in 19.0 innings in postseason

  • 28 strikeouts to only one walk in that time

Arizona Diamondbacks

• Bullpen is also depleted after yesterday’s performance

  • Used 8 different pitchers, all of which are normally used out of the bullpen

• Scored six runs yesterday, but offense is still struggling in series

  • 53 wRC+, .270 BABIP, averaging 2.75 runs per game (FanGraphs)

  • Own 27.3% strikeout rate. Going down on strikes 9.75 times per game

• Starting pitcher- Zac Gallen

  • Surrendered three home runs and five total runs in Game 1

  • Now owns 5.03 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in postseason

What’s the Play?

Its is tough to tell which version of each team we are going to get on a nightly basis, but we agree with our model’s prediction of the under in this spot.

Zack Wheeler has been the most dominant pitcher of the postseason, and we should see that continue against a Diamondbacks offense that is still a shell of itself from the Wild Card and ALDS. There is reason to be worried about Gallen given his postseason numbers, but all three of those starts came on the road. At home in the regular season Gallen owned a 2.47 ERA and 2.32 FIP, per FanGraphs.

We think a pitchers duel is in the cards here. We’ll take the under at eight runs.

The Play: Under 8 (-115)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Philadelphia Phillies- 7-2 overall in postseason, 1-3 as the away team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Arizona Diamondbacks- Under is 2-1 in postseason with Gallen as starting pitcher

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Arizona Diamondbacks- Run line is 7-2 overall in postseason

👎 Phillies bullpen blows lead in Game 4. The Philadelphia Phillies had a 5-2 lead in the seventh inning of Game 4 of the NLCS, but their bullpen faltered, leading to a 6-5 defeat to the Arizona Diamondbacks. Alek Thomas delivered a game-tying two-run homer in the eighth, followed by a Gabriel Moreno single for the game-winning run. Craig Kimbrel, who had also struggled in Game 3, was the losing pitcher, and the Phillies' bullpen bore the brunt of the loss as they let a seemingly secure victory slip away.

🙌 Altuve saves the day for Astros. In a dramatic turn of events during the ALCS between in-state rivals, the atmosphere shifted from friendly to intense, culminating in an unforgettable showdown. Jose Altuve, one of baseball's greatest postseason players, brought stability back with a three-run home run in the ninth inning, securing a 5-4 victory for the Astros in Game 5. This marked Altuve's 26th career playoff home run, ranking second in MLB playoff history, while the Rangers continued to face postseason disappointment and now face elimination.