In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 1-3

Over/Under Predictions: 1-3

Run Line Predictions: 3-1

Featured Matchup: 0-1

🙌 Jameson Williams has suspension shortened. After serving a four-game suspension, Detroit Lions' second-year receiver Jameson Williams expressed his excitement about returning to practice following the NFL's revision of its gambling policy. Williams, who initially faced a six-game suspension for mobile betting on non-NFL games from a club facility in 2022, revealed that he had been training diligently during his suspension. His presence will provide a boost to an already solid offense that has helped give the Lions a 3-1 record.

🏆Josh Allen new frontrunner for MVP. Bills quarterback Josh Allen became the frontrunner for the MVP award after a convincing victory over the Dolphins in Week 4. Allen surpassed Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa following the win, one in which Allen threw five touchdown passes. He is now the favorite with odds of +300, followed closely by Patrick Mahomes of the Chiefs and Tua Tagovailoa, both at +500 odds.

💰Tom Brady jersey sells for over $1 million at charity auction. A Tampa Bay Buccaneers jersey worn by Tom Brady during the December 12, 2021, game against the Buffalo Bills was sold for a staggering $1.2 million in a charity auction. In that game, Brady achieved a milestone by throwing his 699th and 700th career touchdown passes, amassing 363 passing yards and three total touchdowns. The winning bid came close to breaking the all-time record for an NFL jersey, set at $1.212 million for Joe Montana's "The Drive" jersey.

There are four MLB games scheduled to take place throughout this afternoon and evening in what will be Game 2 of the Wild Card round. You can see the predictions for all four of today’s matchups below.

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Milwaukee Brewers

Model Predicts- Brewers ML, OVER 7.5, Diamondbacks +1.5

The Arizona Diamondbacks and Milwaukee Brewers will square of in Game 2 of the National League Wild Card round on Wednesday night.

Arizona walked away from game 1 victorious despite falling into an early 3-0 hold in the second inning. The Diamondbacks scored six unanswered runs from the third inning on to win the game 6-3, showing the team’s resilience.

Zac Gallen an Freddy Peralta will take the mound for their respective teams, an our model gives Milwaukee and the over a slight edge in today’s matchup with their season on the line. Let’s dive into why that is and see our model’s best bet for today’s matchup.

Arizona Diamondbacks

• Got down early, but fought back for the final seven innings

  • Outscored Milwaukee 6-0 from innings three to nine

  • Could have done far more damage- left eight runners stranded on base

• Power and plate discipline were on full display

  • Three home runs in yesterday’s matchup- snapped five-game streak without a homer

  • Generated seven walks

• However, pitching staff was drained in yesterday’s win

  • Starter Brandon Pfaadt pitched just 2.2 innings

  • Utilized six relievers, with two throwing 23+ pitches

• Zac Gallen (17-9 record, 3.47 ERA)

  • Underlying numbers show he has performed much better than expected

    • 4.16 xERA to 3.47 season ERA

    • Vulnerable to hard contact and the barrel- ranks in bottom 5% of MLB in Hard Hit rate (46.2%) and Barrel rate (9.2%)

    • 4.42 ERA on the road vs 2.47 ERA at home (FanGraphs)

Milwaukee Brewers

• No shortage of offense in Game 1

  • three runs in first two innings, but nothing the rest of the way

  • 12 total hits- three more than Arizona

• Could not get many base runners home in the late stages

  • Left 11 players on base

  • Had the bases loaded with no outs in the fifth inning, but did not score a run

• Also utilized bullpen for much of game

  • Starter Corbin Burnes pitched four innings

  • Used six relievers across the final five innings

• Freddy Peralta (12-10 record, 3.86 ERA) will get start on mound

  • Struggled in last start- nine hits, four runs in three innings

  • Strikeout rate (30.9%) and Whiff rate (33.6%) both rank in top 8% of MLB

  • Ranks in bottom 50% of MLB in Barrel rate (8.6%) and ground ball rate (42.8%)

What’s the Play?

Game 1 saw a total of nine runs scored, and to be honest, that total could have easily been in neighborhood of 12-14 runs. As a result, we’ll back the over today too.

Arizona and Milwaukee combined for 21 hits in Game 1, yet stranded a combined 19 runners on base and hit 4-21 with runners in scoring position. Both teams were in a position to pile on the runs, and the poor performance in scoring situations is more of an outlier than anything else.

Additionally, both bullpens were utilized to the fullest yesterday. If either Gallen or Peralta get into trouble early, we’ll likely see an already tired arm step in.

Zac Gallen’s vulnerability to hard contact, the barrel, and poor outings on the road should enable Milwaukee’s offense to stay hot, while Peralta’s ground ball struggles and high barrel rate will likely allow Arizona to score some runs as well. We’ll back the over here at 7.5 runs.

The Play: Over 7.5 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Tampa Bay Rays- 99-63 in regular season, 53-28 as the home team

• Minnesota Twins- 87-75 in regular season, 47-34 as the home team, 8-3 in last 11 games

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Texas Rangers- Under is 20-20-2 this season as a road underdog

• Miami Marlins- Over is 28-22-2 against division opponents (Play NL East rival Philadelphia today)

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Texas Rangers- Run line is 89-74 this season, 27-15 as a road underdog

• Arizona Diamondbacks- Run line is 28-20 this season as a road underdog

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com.

💪 Wheeler dominates on mound, Phillies take Game 1. Led by Zack Wheeler's impressive performance with eight strikeouts, Philadelphia began their postseason with a 4-1 victory over the Miami Marlins. In a charged atmosphere at Citizens Bank Park, Wheeler delivered an exceptional performance, throwing blazing fastballs and displaying a potent slider and sinker, while the raucous crowd cheered him on. The Phillies showcased their depth in hitting, with a Nick Castellanos RBI double sealing the game, bringing them closer to an NL Division Series matchup against Atlanta.

😬Attendance for Rangers/Rays reaches all-time low. The AL Wild Card Series opener at Tropicana Field between the Texas Rangers and Tampa Bay Rays had an announced attendance of just 19,704, marking the lowest postseason crowd since the 1919 World Series. The turnout fell approximately 5,300 below the stadium's listed capacity, highlighting attendance issues that have plagued the team for decades. The Rays have plans to construct a new 30,000-seat ballpark to replace Tropicana Field, where they have played since their inaugural season in 1998.

🤕 Cade McNamara out for season with torn ACL. Cade McNamara, the senior quarterback for Iowa, will be out for the rest of the 2023 season due to a left knee ACL tear, as announced by coach Kirk Ferentz. McNamara, who had been dealing with a quad injury, left the game against Michigan State early, and sophomore Deacon Hill stepped in to replace him, delivering a solid performance. While acknowledging the team's offensive struggles this season, Ferentz expressed hope for McNamara's return in 2024 after surgery and recovery.

⛸Derek Stepan hangs up the skates. Derek Stepan, who made history as the fourth player ever to achieve a hat trick in his NHL debut, has officially retired from professional hockey after a 13-year career. Stepan's remarkable debut occurred in 2010 when he netted three goals against former Vezina Trophy winner Ryan Miller while playing for the New York Rangers, where he spent seven seasons. His most outstanding season was in 2013-14, when he tallied 57 points during the regular season and contributed 15 more in the playoffs.

🏆Calipari to receive Legends of Coaching award. Kentucky's John Calipari has been named the recipient of the John R. Wooden Award Legends of Coaching honor. The award recognizes coaches based on their character, on-court achievements, graduation rates of their players, and coaching philosophy. Calipari, who led the Wildcats to a national championship in 2012 and four Final Four appearances in five years, joins an esteemed list of previous winners, including Dawn Staley, Bill Self, Tom Izzo, Pat Summitt, and Denny Crum.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Three NFL players have scored six touchdowns in a game. Two of those players are Gale Sayers and Dub Jones, but who is the third?

Question #2- MLB pitchers Kevin Gausman and Aaron Nola were both stars at what SEC school before their time in the MLB?

Question #3- American businessman Josh Harris is an owner of three professional sports teams: the Philadelphia 76ers, Washington Commanders, and what other team?

Anyone know what has happened on October 4th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On October 4th…

1991- The Edmonton Oilers trade Mark Messier to the New York Rangers. Messier played for Edmonton for 13 seasons, but was traded in a cost-cutting move by the franchise. The Oilers received Bernie Nicholls, Steven Rice, and Louie DeBrusk in return, and Messier led the Rangers to a Stanley Cup victory shortly after in 1994.

2003- Texas Tech quarterback B.J. Symons sets a Big 12 record for passing touchdowns in a single game in a 59-28 win over Texas A&M. Symons threw eight TD passes in the game, with the longest coming from 48 yards out. He also completed 73.9% of his passes for 505 yards in the game despite being subbed out at the start of the fourth quarter, further showing his dominance.

2022- New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge hits his 62nd home run of the season. The homer came in a 3-2 victory over the Texas Rangers, and it broke a tie with Roger Maris for American League record in a single season. Judge followed up that performance with 37 home runs this season, which he achieved in only 106 games.

1. Alvin Kamara

2. LSU

3. New Jersey Devils