In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were no model predictions yesterday, August 28, 2023.

Money Line Predictions: 0-0

Over/Under Predictions: 0-0

Run Line Predictions: 0-0

Featured Matchup: 0-0

🦅 Derek Barnett looking into trade market. Eagles defensive end Derek Barnett, represented by agent Drew Rosenhaus, is exploring other potential playing opportunities, per sources informed ESPN's Jeremy Fowler on Monday. While the Eagles intend to retain Barnett, they recognize that their robust pass-rush lineup might restrict his playing time, potentially placing him in a rotational role if he remains. Barnett, aged 27, was selected with the 14th overall pick by the Eagles in 2017 and has recorded 21.5 sacks over six seasons, with his most impressive performance in 2019.

🔄 Browns acquire Dustin Hopkins, release Cade York. The revolving door of kickers continues to keep moving in Cleveland. The Browns are obtaining veteran Dustin Hopkins through a trade with the Los Angeles Chargers, exchanging a 2025 seventh-round pick, as reported by NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport. Following the trade, the Browns are parting ways with kicker Cade York, who struggled throughout the preseason, converting only 50% of his field goal attempts and failing in critical moments.

🤔 Cardinals release Colt McCoy, still figuring out starting QB. With less than two weeks until the start of Week 1, the Arizona Cardinals' quarterback situation is gaining clarity. Cardinals coach Jonathan Gannon stated that Kyler Murray won't be removed from the physically unable to perform (PUP) list before the deadline, which means he'll miss at least the first four regular-season games, and quarterback Colt McCoy was released. Joshua Dobbs and fifth-round pick Clayton Tune are the potential starters for Week 1, with Dobbs having familiarity with the offensive system through his previous association with Cardinals offensive coordinator Drew Petzing.

There are 15 MLB games scheduled to take place today. However, due to lines being unavailable at the time of writing, our model has predictions for 14 of today’s matchups.

Los Angeles Angels @ Philadelphia Phillies

Model Predicts- Phillies ML, OVER 9.5, Angeles +1.5

The Los Angeles Angels and Philadelphia Phillies will go head-to-head in Game 2 of this three-game series on Tuesday night.

Philadelphia got the better of L.A. in Game 1, hitting three home runs on its way to a 6-4 victory. The win marked the fourth straight for Philadelphia, while the loss was the seventh in the last ten games for the Angels.

The Angels now six games below .500 and 11.5 games back of a Wild Card spot, and our model thinks they will lose today’s matchup as well. Let’s dive into why that is a case, and also why our model is predicting a high-scoring contest.

Los Angeles Angels

Angels fans don’t have much to cheer for at the moment. As previously mentioned, the team is nowhere close to a playoff spot with just over one month to play, and a UCL injury to Shohei Ohtani has forced their star into a permanent designated hitter role in what could be his last season in an Angels uniform.

The month of August has been particularly brutal for L.A., posting a 7-18 record since August 1st. Several factors have contributed to that record, but the Angels’ 5.79 Team ERA and 4.85 xFIP shows that a lot of the blame should be placed on the pitching staff’s shoulders.

Today’s starting pitcher, Tyler Anderson (5-5 record, 5.35 ER), has played a massive role in the team’s struggles on the mound this month. Anderson owns a 7.46 ERA and 1.55 WHIP since August 1st, with opponents scoring 18 total runs in Anderson’s 18.1 innings of work in that time.

Walks have been a massive problem for Anderson this month, posting a 13.1% walk rate, per FanGraphs. The southpaw has also had major problems keeping the ball on the ground, as evidenced by his 30.6% ground ball rate, two catalysts for opposing teams to score runs in bunches.

Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies are one of the hottest teams in baseball at the moment, and their four-game win streak further proves that this team can make another World Series run this season.

According to FanGraphs, Philadelphia owns a 163 wRC+ during its four-game win streak, the third highest mark in the MLB in that time. Perhaps even more impressive is that the Phillies have struck out in just 12.8% of at-bats and walked in 9.5% in that same four-game stretch, proving that this team is seeing the ball tremendously well.

The Phillies aren’t just making contact though. They are sending baseball’s deep into the stands, recording nine homers over the last four games. That has led to an incredible +21 run differential, further proving that the Phils are arguably the best offense in baseball right now.

However, while there are no questions about Philadelphia’s ability at the plate, there are some question marks surrounding tonight’s starting pitcher Michael Lorenzen (7-8 record, 3.69 ERA).

Lorenzen’s Phillies career got off to a great start, with the right-hander allowing just two earned runs in his first 17.0 innings and throwing a no-hitter. However, the right-hander has seen massive regression since then, posting a 10.0 ERA and 2.22 WHIP in his last two starts, numbers that have resulted from allowing three homers and striking out just 10.9% of opposing hitters.

What’s the Play?

There isn’t much wind left in the Angels’ sails, a big reason why our model gives the Phillies a solid chance to extend their win streak to five games this evening. However, we’re avoiding choosing a winner in this matchup, instead rolling with the over.

Anderson can’t keep a baseball on the ground to save his life right now, which poses a problem against a Phillies team that has crushed balls out of the park and owns a 183 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers in the last four games.

Lorenzen is no better though, surrendering three homers in his last nine innings, and his 4.19 xERA shows that more regression is on the horizon. His vulnerability to contact give the Angels a chance to score tonight.

We feel that Philadelphia will do a majority of the damage tonight, but Los Angeles is in a great position to score against a declining Lorenzen as well.

The Play: Over 9.5 (-115)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Philadelphia Phillies- 73-58 overall this season, 4-0 in last four games

• Chicago Cubs- 69-62 overall this season, 24-16 against division opponents (Play NL Central rival Milwaukee tonight)

• Los Angeles Dodgers- 81-49 overall this season, 44-21 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Chicago Cubs- Over is 69-57-5 this season, 35-27-4 as the home team

• San Diego Padres- Under is 70-54-8 this season, 32-27-5 as the away team

• Los Angeles Dodgers- Over is 74-49-7 this season, 32-29-4 as the home team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Cincinnati Reds- Run line is 83-50 overall this season, 41-19 as a road underdog

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com.

📝 Padres place Yu Darvish on IL. The Padres' already dimming playoff prospects suffered another blow as pitcher Yu Darvish was placed on the 15-day injured list due to right elbow inflammation. Darvish's situation is pending further assessment, and the team hopes he can return later in the season. This setback adds to San Diego's pitching concerns, as they also have Joe Musgrove on the injured list, potentially putting their playoff chances further at risk given their current eight-game deficit in the National League Wild Card race.

🤕 Tony Gonsolin to have Tommy John surgery. Dodgers pitcher Gonsolin, who was previously ruled out for the remainder of the 2023 season due to an elbow injury, is scheduled to undergo Tommy John surgery on Friday, as reported by Bill Plunkett. This development indicates that Gonsolin might be sidelined for a significant portion or the entirety of the 2024 season. This unfortunate news follows a season where his performance declined, ending with a 4.98 ERA over 103 innings compared to his impressive 2.14 ERA across 130.1 innings the previous year.

😳 Fans tackle Ronald Acuna Jr. in outfield. During a game between the Atlanta Braves and the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field, two fans intruded onto the outfield and approached Braves player Ronald Acuña Jr. in an attempt to take a selfie. Security swiftly intervened, with one fan putting their arm around Acuña while another approached from right field. Despite the commotion, Acuña remained uninjured and continued playing, ultimately contributing significantly to the Braves' 14-4 victory with his performance of a home run, stolen bases, runs, and RBI.

🌎 Team USA advances to second round in FIBA World Cup. Team USA's dominance is becoming evident in the FIBA World Cup, as they cruised to a 109-81 victory over Greece. Austin Reaves led with 15 points, complemented by Jalen Brunson and Anthony Edwards, each contributing 13 points. Holding a 55-point advantage across two games, the U.S. has asserted its prowess, with Greece, considered a strong competitor, unable to challenge due to the absence of star Giannis Antetokounmpo.

💪 Anton Forsberg back to full health. The Ottawa Senators have received positive injury updates about goaltender Anton Forsberg, who missed the final two months of the 2022-2023 season due to dual MCL tears in February. Forsberg, now fully recovered, expressed his readiness for the upcoming 2023-2024 season, stating he has been at 100% health for a while. Despite the setback from his injury, Forsberg aims to perform without hesitation and is poised to support fellow goalie Joonas Korpisalo, who signed a five-year deal with the Senators, potentially bolstering their performance even as they are expected to be in a lower standing.

😬 Michigan offensive coordinator suspended for Week 1. Michigan's offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore will face a suspension for the team's opening game due to self-imposed penalties by the university for NCAA rule violations. An analyst will temporarily step into Moore's position for the game against East Carolina, scheduled for this upcoming Saturday. The school's decision to impose penalties follows an investigation into NCAA recruiting infractions, with Jim Harbaugh also serving a three-game suspension.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Only one NFL franchise has appeared in both the NFC and AFC Championship game. Can you name that team?

Question #2- The last pick of the NFL Draft is often tabbed with the nickname of Mr. Irrelevant. Can you name the only Mr. Irrelevant to play in and win a Super Bowl?

Question #3- Christian Yelich last hit for the cycle on May 11, 2022. How many times has Yelich hit for the cycle in his career?

Anyone know what has happened on August 29th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On August 29th…

1987- Houston Astros pitcher Nolan Ryan records his 200th strikeout for an MLB record 11th season. Ryan would end his Hall of Fame career passing the 200 strikeout barrier 15 times, two more than any other pitcher in MLB history and only one of four pitchers to surpass double-digit seasons. Unsurprisingly, Ryan ranks first on the MLB’s all-time strikeout list as well, finishing his career with 5,714 punch outs.

2018- NFL quarterback Aaron Rodgers signs record extension with the Green Bay Packers. Rodger's’ extension would be for four years and included up to $180 million with bonuses, with $103 million being guaranteed. The QB would win two 0f his four NFL MVPs during the contract, and today is getting ready to begin his first season as a New York Jet.

2022- MLB slugger Albert Pujols hits his 694th career home run in a 13-4 win over the Cincinnati Reds. The homer moved Pujols two home runs closer to Alex Rodriguez on the all-time list, and it was also the 450th different pitcher that Pujols took yard in his career. Pujols’ 703 career home runs currently ranks fourth on the all-time list, behind only Barry Bonds, Hank Aaron, and Babe Ruth.

1. Seattle Seahawks

2. Ryan Succop

3. 3