In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the NFL and MLB, with our model focusing in on two of those predictions in our Featured Matchups. Those predictions went 1-0-1 overall, and you can see how each of the models performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 10-3

Over/Under Predictions: 5-8

Spread Predictions: 4-8-1

Featured Matchup: 1-0

Money Line Predictions: 6-5

Over/Under Predictions: 4-6-1

Run Line Predictions: 6-5

Featured Matchup: 0-0-1

The NFL has blessed us with two Monday Night Football games for the second week in a row. The first matchup will be between the Philadelphia Eagles and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and the second matchup will be between the Los Angeles Rams and Cincinnati Bengals.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Model Predicts- Eagles ML, UNDER 45, Buccaneers +5

The Philadelphia Eagles will take their talents to Tampa Bay to take on the Buccaneers on Monday Night Football.

Philadelphia enters this matchup a perfect 2-0, defeating the Patriots and Vikings to begin the season. Tampa Bay is, perhaps surprisingly, in the same spot, taking home wins against the Vikings and Bears to begin the season.

Last season’s Super Bowl runner up has yet to hit its stride, but our model believes the Eagles will extend their win streak to three tonight. Let’s dive into why that is and see our model’s best bet for this matchup.

Philadelphia Eagles

• Offense has slowed down from a season ago

  • Offense scored 34 points in Week 2, up from 18 in Week 1

  • Rank 15th in EPA/play

• Passing offense has yet to show up

  • 162.5 pass yards per game- 29th in NFL

  • Down from 233.8 yards per game a season ago

• On bright side, offensive line is still elite

  • Rank 6th in pass block win rate and 1st in run block win rate

  • Opening up plenty of holes for running backs- averaging 178 rush yards per game through two weeks

• Getting healthier on defense

  • James Bradberry and Reed Blankenship back to boost secondary

    • Will compliment defense that ranks 3rd in run stop win rate

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• 2-0 in the Baker Mayfield era

• Mixed results on offense thus far

  • Rank top 10 in EPA/play

  • Slightly conservative-rank 20th in yards per play (5.0)

  • Have only scored TD on 33.33% of red zone trips- third lowest in NFL

• Questions about offensive line

  • Rank 26th in pass block win rate and 28th in run block win rate

  • Have allowed just one sack through two games though

• Defense ranks 7th in EPA/Play, but also has some questions

  • 21st in pass rush win rate, 22nd in run block win rate

  • Surrendering 248.5 pass yards per game- 9th most in NFL

• Plethora of injuries on defense

  • Vita Vea (Questionable), Carlton Davis (Questionable), Devin White (Questionable), Calijah Kancey (OUT)

What’s the Play?

Both of these secondaries have looked vulnerable through two weeks, with Philadelphia’s actually being the worst of the two. However, we agree with our model that a low scoring game is in the cards tonight.

Tampa Bay’s 2-0 record is deceiving in a variety of ways. For instance, their opponents in the first two weeks, the Vikings and Bears, have yet to pick up a win this year, combining to go 0-6 through three weeks. All the injuries on defense, while all not labeled as out, is a cause for concern too, especially considering their already sub-par pass rush and secondary.

Philadelphia has shown a commitment to running the ball, and Tampa Bay has yet to see a defense as talented as Philly’s. That should help run the clock and keep points off the board, so we’ll roll with the under here.

The Play: Under 45 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Philadelphia Eagles- 2-0 overall this season, 18-4 in last 22 regular season games

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Primetime unders were 36-22-1 (61%) in 2022, 7-2 already this season

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers- 2-0 against the spread (ATS) this season, 1-0 as an underdog

Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Philadelphia Eagles

  • Nakobe Dean (OUT), Quez Watkins (OUT), Boston Scott (OUT),

  • Avonte Maddox (OUT)

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Vita Vea (Questionable), Carlton Davis (Questionable), Devin White (Questionable), Calijah Kancey (OUT)

Los Angeles Rams @ Cincinnati Bengals

• Los Angeles Rams

  • Cooper Kupp (OUT), Puka Nacua (Questionable)

• Cincinnati Bengals

  • Joe Burrow (Questionable), Irv Smith (Out)

🐬 Miami scores 70 points, moves to 3-0. The Miami Dolphins put on an offensive clinic on Sunday, scoring 70 points against the Denver Broncos. Miami tallied 726 total yards in the game, leading to five touchdowns on the ground and five more in the air in what was the highest-scoring performance since 1966. Running backs De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert were the starts of the show and likely won many people their fantasy football games this weekend, combining for 375 yards and seven touchdowns.

🤕 Carr leaves early against Packers. Saints quarterback Derek Carr was taken to a local hospital for evaluation of his right shoulder injury during the team's 18-17 loss to the Packers. Coach Dennis Allen confirmed that X-rays were part of the evaluation process, and Carr flew home with the team after the game. Carr's injury continues the Saints' streak of quarterback injuries over the past five seasons, with Jameis Winston stepping in for Carr during the game but failing to secure a win for the team.

Baseball tends to slow down at this time of year, and we are seeing that today as only four games are scheduled. You can see our model predictions for all of those games below.

Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels

Model Predicts- Rangers ML, OVER 9, Angels +1.5

The Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels will begin a three-game series on Monday in what will be the last meeting between the two teams this season.

Texas enters today’s matchup riding a five-game win streak, one that has pushed their record to 87-68 and to a 2.5-game lead in the AL West. Meanwhile, Los Angeles has not had nearly has much luck finding the win column, going 2-8 over its last ten games.

The Angels have nothing left to play for, but there is still plenty on the line for the Rangers and our model likes them to pick up a win today. Let’s dive into why that is and see our model’s best bet for today’s matchup.

Texas Rangers

• Red hot offense in September

  • Rank 5th in wRC+ (120), 4th in OPS (.813), and 6th in on base % (.341)

  • Power is on full display- 39 home runs in 22 games

  • 5.55 runs per game

• Offense has gotten even better during five-game win streak

  • Rank 1st in wRC+ (162) and OPS (.971), per FanGraphs

  • 13 home runs in that span- most in MLB

  • Seeing ball very well- 13.0% Walk rate and just 17.7% Strikeout rate

• Jon Gray (8-8 record, 4.22 ERA) will get start on mound

  • 7.76 ERA and 1.98 WHIP over last six starts

  • Vulnerable to home runs in that time- 2.72 home runs per nine innings

  • 4.56 xERA to 4.22 real ERA shows more regression is on horizon

Los Angeles Angels

• Have been one of MLB’s worst offenses for several weeks

  • Rank 28th in wRC+ (79), 27th in BABIP (.276), and 29th in OPS (.665) since September 1st

  • Strikeouts are biggest issue- rank 30th in category this month at 28.0%

  • 76 runs in last 22 games

• Pitching staff hasn’t helped situation

  • 4.65 ERA and 4.50 FIP this month

  • 4.14 walks per nine innings since September 1st- 5ht most in MLB

• Patrick Sandoval (7-13 record, 4.19 ERA) will start on mound

  • 7.91 ERA and 2.03 WHIP over last four starts

  • Ranks in bottom 26% of MLB in Strikeout rate (19.8%) and Walk rate (10.8%)

  • 4.62 xERA to 4.19 real ERA shows regression is on horizon

What’s the Play?

These two teams are polar opposites when it comes to their recent performance at the plate. However, both starting pitchers haven’t found a rhythm on the mound in several weeks, so we agree with our model that the over is a solid play here.

Not only is Jon Gray allowing nearly two base runners per inning over his last six starts, he is also surrendering almost three home runs per nine innings, which has allowed runs to be scored in bunches. His vulnerability to the barrel has been his biggest problem, and it could spark some life into the Angels offense.

Texas should once again have no problems against Sandoval, who they already tagged for four runs in 2.2 innings back on August 14th. That game saw 12 total runs scored, and we think that number can be reached again today.

The Play: Over 9 (-115)

Money Line Trends 💰

• San Diego Padres- 77-79 overall this season, 9-1 in last 10 games

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Texas Rangers- Over is 83-64-8 this season, third-highest win percentage in MLB

• Los Angeles Angels- Over is 79-67-10 this season, 26-15-5 against division opponents (Play AL West rival Texas today)

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• No relevant trends today

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com.

👎Yankees are officially eliminated from playoffs. Aaron Judge, once optimistic about the Yankees' prospects, now finds himself in a familiar but disappointing place, as the team has been eliminated from the playoffs for the first time since 2016. Judge expressed disappointment, acknowledging that they failed to perform collectively, vowing to work harder for the next season. Injuries and inconsistent performance from key players, coupled with the loss of their starting pitching strength, contributed to the Yankees' disappointing season, leaving them far from their championship aspirations.

🎉Braves reach 100 wins for second straight season. The Atlanta Braves secured their 100th win of the season with an 8-5 victory over the Washington Nationals. Spencer Strider started strong, retiring six hitters in a row after allowing a leadoff double in the first two innings. The Braves' offense rallied in the fourth, with Matt Olson breaking a franchise record for a single season with his 133rd RBI, and Kevin Pillar's two-run home run giving Atlanta the lead. The Braves now have a record of 100-56 and will face the Chicago Cubs in a three-game series after their final regular-season off day on Monday.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- The highest passer rating in an NFL season is 122.5, which came in 2011. What player set that record?

Question #2- Connie Hawkins, John Starks, Brad Miller, and Ben Wallace are four of the five undrafted players in NBA history to later become All-Stars. Who is the fifth?

Question #3- The Denver Nuggets have the blemish of scoring the fewest points in an NBA game since 1999, setting the record in 2002 against the Pistons. How many points did Denver score in the performance?

Anyone know what has happened on September 25th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On September 25th…

1985- MLB legend Rickey Henderson sets a new Yankee record with 75 stolen bases in a season. Henderson would end the season with 80 stolen bases on 90 total attempts, the most by any player that year. He would end his career with 1,406 stolen bases, 468 more than any player in MLB history.

1997- The WNBA announces that it will add teams to Detroit and Washington D.C. The Detroit Shock remained in the league until 2009, they year they rebranded to the Tulsa Shock and eventually the Dallas Wings. Meanwhile, the Washington Mystics have yet to relocate or change their team name since their first season in 1998.

2016- Rory McIlroy wins the Tour Championship at East Lake Golf Course. McIlroy finished the final round in a tie at 12-under par with Kevin Chappell and Ryan Moore, eventually defeating both in a playoff. The Northern Irishman would finish the season with 3,120 points in the FedEx Cup standings, and took home $10 million for the season.

1. Aaron Rodgers

2. Fred VanVleet

3. 53 points