In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were no model predictions yesterday, Sunday, June 25, 2023.

Money Line Predictions: 0-0

Over/Under Predictions: 0-0

Run Line Predictions: 0-0

3-star Predictions: 0-0

💰 Timberwolves sign Naz Reid to three-year deal. The Minnesota Timberwolves and center Naz Reid have reportedly come to terms on a three-year, $42 million deal, per Adrian Wojnarowski. Reid began his professional career after going undrafted in the 2019 NBA Draft out of LSU, putting together his best season in 2023 while averaging 11.5 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 1.1 assists in 60 games. Reid also provided Minnesota with some three-point shooting alongside Karl-Anthony Towns, sinking 34.4% of his three point attempts since joining the NBA.

🏜 Phoenix keeping DeAndre Ayton on roster. Phoenix Suns center DeAndre Ayton has been the subject of trade rumors for the last few seasons, but it appears that the Suns are content with keeping the 24-year-old on the roster, per Chris Haynes. Ayton appeared to be on his way out the door after signing a four-year, $133 million offer sheet with the Indiana Pacers last offseason, but Phoenix matched the offer in order to keep the big man on the roster. The former No.1 overall pick out of Arizona averaged 18 points, 10 rebounds, and 1.7 assists for Phoenix last season, giving the Suns enough confidence that he will be a great piece alongside Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, and newly acquired guard Bradley Beal.

👑 Kings, Jets in discussions for Dubois. The Winnipeg Jets and Los Angeles Kings have reportedly begun discussions surrounding the availability of Jets forward Pierre-Luc Dubois, per Mike McIntyre. Dubois requested a trade from Winnipeg following the Jets’ first round loss to the Las Vegas Golden Knights this past postseason, sparking a slew of Jets players to express their desires to play elsewhere as well. Dubois is coming off a season in which he tallied 27 goals and 36 assists in 73 games, making the 25-year-old a welcome addition wherever he lands.

💰 Hurricanes sign Staal to extension. The Carolina Hurricanes and center Jordan Staal have reportedly come to terms on a four-year, $11.6 million extension, giving the 34-year-old a $2.9 million dollar salary over the next four seasons. He was due to hit free agency as an unrestricted free-agent next month following the expiration of the 10-year, $60 million deal he signed in 2012. Staal, who has been the captain for Carolina for the last five seasons, has had an excellent tenure with the Hurricanes, collecting 397 points in 742 appearances.

🏜 Arizona re-signs Connor Ingram to three-year deal. The Arizona Coyotes and goalie Connor Ingram have agreed on a new three-year deal that will pay Ingram $1.95 million a season, per Craig Morgan. Connor Ingram has has an interesting NHL career thus far, being drafted by the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2016 before being traded to the Predators three years later and eventually finding his way to Arizona. Ingram appeared in 27 games last season for the Coyotes, posting a 6-13-8 record with a .907 save percentage and 3.37 goals against average.

After a long weekend of baseball, the MLB will start out the week with only six matchups. Our model has predictions for all six of tonight’s games below.

Cincinnati Reds @ Baltimore Orioles

Model Predicts- Reds ML, OVER 9.5, Reds +1.5

The Cincinnati Reds and Baltimore Orioles will begin a three-game series this evening in Baltimore.

Cincinnati enters tonight’s matchup as one of the hottest teams in the majors, winning 12 of its last 14 games. The 12 wins were consecutive victories from June 10-23, but that winning streak ended with back-to-back losses to the Atlanta Braves on Saturday and Sunday.

Baltimore hasn’t had as much luck as of late, going 5-5 in the last ten but riding a two-game win streak.

The Orioles have been one of the best teams in baseball all season and Cincinnati now finds itself in first place in the NL Central following its 12-game win streak, and our model believes that Cincinnati is set to find the win column again as a road underdog this evening. Will we see that prediction come to fruition, or will the Orioles win their third game in a row?

Cincinnati Reds

It appeared that the Cincinnati Reds had a chance to become basement dwellers again after a poor start to the 2023 season. However, the Reds are now four games over .500 and own a 0.5-game lead in the NL Central division.

The sudden rise up the standings was due to tremendous improvements at the plate. According to Fangraphs, Cincinnati posted a 121 wRC+ during its win streak, the third best mark in the majors in that time. The Reds’ 18.7% strikeout rate was also the third best mark in baseball, showing that this offense was getting on base and making contact at a high clip.

Even though the Reds have fallen back down to Earth with two consecutive losses, the offense still appears to be red hot. Cincinnati lost both games to Atlanta over the weekend by a score of 7-6, but saw its wRC+ rise to 137 and also posted a .348 BABIP.

It’s a rather small sample size, but the numbers show that the Reds haven’t exactly lost any momentum at the plate.

Brandon Williamson (1-0 record, 5.40 ERA) will get the start for Cincinnati and will be in charge of settling things down on the mound. However, the 25-year-old has been exposed often this season, as evidenced by his 6.71 xERA, per Baseball Savant. Williamson also owns a 13.6% Barrel rate, .290 xBA, and 47.5% Hard Hit rate, all of which rank him in the bottom 8% of the MLB this season.

Baltimore Orioles

The Baltimore Orioles were thought by many to have overachieved last season, but all the Orioles have done in 2023 was prove that last season’s 83-79 record was no fluke.

A huge piece of Baltimore’s success has come as a result of its consistency at the plate, regardless ow what pitcher they may be facing. Per ESPN, the O’s are batting .257 with a .759 OPS against lefties in 2023, compared to .252 with a .741 OPS against right-handers.

Not having any major performance swings at the plate has led to Baltimore posting a 106 wRC+ and .297 BABIP this season. Those marks rank ninth and 15th in the majors, respectively.

Having one of the best hitting attacks in the league is always an advantage, and Baltimore is going to need every ounce of that offense today with Cole Irvin (1-3 record, 7.71 ERA) set to take the mound for the O’s.

Irvin has pitched just 23.1 innings in 2023 due to injury, but that sample size has shown us how easily opposing hitters jump on him. According to Baseball Savant, Irvin shockingly ranks in the bottom 1% of the majors in xBA at .343, up from .258 a season ago. His four main pitches, a 4-seam fastball, changeup, curveball, and sinker, all own an xBA above .280, which has coincided with a 14.5% Barrel rate.

What’s the Play?

Neither one of today’s starters is particularly strong on the mound. Our model gives a slight advantage to Williamson and the Reds, however, we feel that the best play here is the over at 9.5 runs.

We see Cincinnati getting plenty of runs on Irvin today. Irvin is vulnerable to allowing some big hits, and Cincinnati enters today batting .267 with a .760 OPS against left-handed pitchers, which Irvin is. We expect one of the best offenses in the majors this month to stay hot.

However, we can’t count out Baltimore to put some numbers on the scoreboard. We already discussed the Orioles’ improved batting splits against lefties when compared to righties, and Williamson’s 1.31-run variance between his ERA and xERA shows that he is due for more regression on the mound.

Neither one of these pitchers gives us enough confidence to definitively pick today’s winner, but we feel comfortable backing the over tonight, which our model gives a 53.92% chance to hit.

3-star play: Over 9.5 (-120)

Money Line Trends💰

• Cincinnati Reds- 41-37 overall this season, have won 12 of the last 14 games

• Los Angeles Angels- 42-37 overall this season, 20-16 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Cincinnati Reds- Over is 45-33 overall this season, 23-18 as the home team

• Baltimore Orioles- Over is 38-33-5 this season, 22-13-3 as the away team

• New York Mets- Under is 41-35-1 this season, 20-12 as the home team

Run Line Trends➕➖

• Cincinnati Reds- Run line is 50-28 overall this season, 23-9 as a road underdog

• Minnesota Twins- Run line is 39-40 overall this season, 12-8 as a road underdog

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com.

👎 Mets bullpen collapses in loss to Philadelphia on Sunday. The New York Mets entered the eighth inning with a 6-3 lead against their NL East division rival, the Philadelphia Phillies, on Sunday afternoon. However, despite the Phillies managing just one hit in the inning, Philadelphia scored four runs to take a 7-6 lead heading into the top of the ninth inning. Mets relievers Josh Walker and Jeff Brigham shoulder most of the blame, surrendering three walks and hitting two batters in the disastrous inning. Craig Kimbrel got the save in what was Philadelphia’s 15th win in the last 20 games, while the loss was New York’s 15th in the last 20 games.

👏 Freddie Freeman notches 2,000th hit of his career. Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman collected his 2,000th career hit in Los Angeles’ 6-5 loss to the Houston Astros on Sunday. Freeman ripped a double into the right field gap in the bottom of the eighth inning in order to reach the milestone, simultaneously allowing Mookie Betts to score to trim Houston’s lead to two runs. The former Atlanta Brave is now the 6th active player and 289th player in MLB history to reach the 2,000 hit mark.

🌎 Cubs, Cardinals split series across the pond. The Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals took their talents across the pond to London, England over the weekend, the second stop on the MLB’s World Tour. Chicago took Game 1 with ease, beating St. Louis 9-1 with the help of Ian Happ’s two home runs. Game 2 was a different story though, with the Cardinals winning 7-5 despite being down 4-0 after the first inning. Both teams will have one day to recover before jumping back into things this week, with Chicago going on to host the Philadelphia Phillies and St. Louis hosting the Houston Astros beginning on Tuesday.

⛳️ Keegan Bradley wins Travelers Championship. Keegan Bradley shot an incredible 23-under par across four rounds at the Travelers Championship this weekend, winning the tournament by three strokes. The victory was the sixth of Bradley’s career on the PGA Tour and the second this season after winning the Zozo Championship in October. Zac Blair and Ryan Harman would tie for second at 20-under par, while Patrick Cantlay, Scottie Scheffler, and Chez Reavie all finished at 19-under. Denny McCarthy, who led the tournament after a 10-under par round on Thursday, finished tied for seventh at 18-under.

💪 Aaron Rodgers, Garrett Wilson off to good start in 2023. The New York Jets have acquired several Green Bay Packers players in the offseason, but none greater than quarterback Aaron Rodgers. That acquisition has reportedly opened up the passing attack in ways that haven’t been seen in years by Jets fans, with wide receiver Garrett Wilson saying, “It’s been really special”. In addition to signing Rodgers, New York signed former Packers receivers Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb to play alongside Wilson on the outside, making the Jets passing attack one of the most promising groups entering the 2023 season.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Rookies in the NBA usually fall between the ages of 19 and 22, but in 2012 one New York Knicks player made his NBA debut at the age of 35, making him the oldest rookie in NBA history. Who was that player?

Question #2- Tom Brady joined the Tampa Bay Buccaneers prior to the 2020-21 season beginning following a long tenure with the New England Patriots. Tampa Bay would go on to win the Super Bowl that season, the franchise’s second Super Bowl victory ever. What season did the Buccaneers win their first Super Bowl?

Question #3- Prior to making the postseason in 2022, the Seattle Mariners had one of the longest playoff droughts in professional sports. How long was that drought?

Anyone know what has happened on June 26th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On June 26th…

1996- The Philadelphia 76ers select Allen Iverson with the first overall pick of the 1996 NBA Draft. Iverson played two seasons at Georgetown University prior to joining the NBA, leading the Hoyas to a Sweet 16 appearance in 1995 and an Elite 8 appearance in 1996. Iverson would play for the Denver Nuggets, Detroit Pistons, and Memphis Grizzlies in addition to the 76ers, earning 11 All-Star selections and one MVP award in that time.

2003- The Cleveland Cavaliers select LeBron James with the first overall pick in the 2003 NBA Draft. James was just 18 years old at the time, bypassing the NCAA and going straight to the NBA following his senior year at St. Vincent-St. Mary High School in Akron, Ohio. James would play for the Cavaliers from 2003-2010 before signing with the Miami Heat before the 2010-2011 season, but eventually returned to Cleveland in 2014. Since entering the NBA James has earned four NBA titles, four regular season and NBA Finals MVPs, and is the NBA’s all-time leading scorer.

2002- The Colorado Avalanche defeat the Tampa Bay Lightning 2-1 in Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Finals, giving Colorado its third Stanley Cup in Franchise history. Tampa Bay entered the postseason with a massive target on its back, a result of winning the Stanley Cup in 2020 and 2021, but fell into a deep hole early after being outscored 11-3 across Games 1 and 2 in the series. Avalanche defenseman Cale Makar was named MVP at the age of 23.

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1. Pablo Prigioni

2. 2002-2003

3. 21 years