In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the NBA, NHL, and MLB, but the results weren’t all that great. Sunday turned out to be the day of the underdog, as no favorites won the in the NBA or the NHL. 3-star plays went 0-2 after both the Tampa Bay Rays and Sacramento Kings blew a lead, with Tampa Bay being up 9-5 in the bottom of the ninth and losing 12-9.

Money Line Predictions: 0-2

Over/Under Predictions: 1-1

Spread Predictions: 0-2

3-star Predictions: 0-1

Money Line Predictions: 0-2

Over/Under Predictions: 2-0

Puck Line Predictions: 2-0

3-star Predictions: 0-0

Money Line Predictions: 6-5

Over/Under Predictions: 4-7

Run Line Predictions: 5-6

3-star Predictions: 0-1

Today we have two NBA games scheduled to take place. The Philadelphia 76ers will travel to Boston to take on the Celtics in Game 1, and the Phoenix Suns will look to even the series at 1-1 against the Nuggets before heading back home for Game 3.

Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics

Model Predicts- Celtics ML, OVER 214, 76ers +10

The Philadelphia 76ers and Boston Celtics will square off in TD Garden on Monday night in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference semifinals.

Philadelphia reached this point by sweeping the Brooklyn Nets in Round 1. Brooklyn did not provide Philly with much of a fight, making the 76ers well rested entering this series.

Boston defeated the Atlanta Hawks in Round 1 to continue its season. Boston lost two games in the series and was in a tight battle in Game 6, but the defending Eastern Conference Champions pushed through to the second round.

Boston always seems to have the upper hand on Philadelphia, and with Joel Embiid listed as doubtful the 76ers will have an even steeper hill to climb. Let’s look at the matchup and make a betting pick for Game 1 of the 76ers vs Celtics series.

Philadelphia 76ers

The Philadelphia 76ers took care of business in Round 1 against Brooklyn. Many suspected Philadelphia would walk away from that series victorious, but the way in which it was done was quite impressive.

Per NBA.com the 76ers posted a 102.5 Defensive Rating in four games against Brooklyn, the best rating of any team in Round 1. Brooklyn surpassed 100 points one time in the series and was held under 90 twice, proving that Philadelphia’s smothering defense was simply too much to handle.

Philadelphia complimented that defense by shredding Brooklyn form behind the arc. During the regular season Philadelphia shot 38.7% from three, and perhaps to no one’s surprise that efficiency carried over into the postseason as Philly shot 40.6% from deep in Round 1. It also helped that Philadelphia out-rebounded Brooklyn 53-23 on the offensive glass, leading to a second chance points margin of +58.

The offensive output wasn’t all that impressive in Round 1 though, with Philly averaging 103.8 points per game. Things are going to get a little tougher in Round 2 without Embiid, Philadelphia’s leading scorer, on the floor to start the series.

Boston Celtics

With the Milwaukee Bucks losing in Round 1 to the Miami Heat, Boston suddenly becomes the heavy favorite to win the Eastern Conference. At the time of writing Boston’s odds to win the East are -240, with Philadelphia being the next closest team at +475.

The large gap in odds may come as a surprise, but it makes a lot of sense. According to NBA.com Boston posted a +6.7 Net Rating during the regular season, the highest in the NBA by more than a point. The Celtics are the most well-rounded team left in the Eastern Conference.

Boston’s biggest edge comes on the offensive end of the floor, where it owned a 118.8 Offensive Rating in Round 1, 4.5 points higher than Philadelphia’s. Just like Philly, Boston did a majority of its damage from behind the arc, coincidentally shooting 40.6% in the first six games of the postseason.

The efficiency from deep is what led to Boston nearly sweeping Philadelphia in the regular season, going 3-1 in the season series. The Celtics shot 41.1% from three in those four matchups while holding the 76ers to shooting 35.6%, which proved to be the difference maker as each game was decided by single digits.

What’s the Play?

Three-point shooting is Philly’s best asset with Embiid out which should help keep any deficit manageable. However, the 76ers presence on the offensive glass can help turn this matchup, allowing Philadelphia to cover the double-digit spread.

As discussed earlier the 76ers dominated the offensive glass against Brooklyn, but Boston got eaten up by Atlanta and posted a -21 Offensive Rebound differential. That led to Atlanta scoring 33 more second chance points in the series.

Embiid would normally be relied upon on the boards, but Paul Reed did a great job of filling that role in his absence. Reed had 15 total rebounds, eight of which were offensive, in Game 4 against Brooklyn when he started in place of Embiid.

Additionally, Philadelphia was 11-5 in the regular season without Embiid, scoring 118.4 points per game with him sidelined, per StatMuse. This is more of a spot where you bet the number and not the team, but we think we’ll see a well-rested 76ers team step up to the challenge and keep things close.

3-star play: 76ers +10 (-110)

Money Line Trends

• Philadelphia 76ers- 4-0 in postseason, but 1-3 against Boston in regular season. 9-11 straight up as away underdog

• Boston Celtics- 4-2 in postseason, 32-10 as home favorite

• Phoenix Suns- 4-2 in postseason, 2-1 on the road

• Denver Nuggets- 5-1 in postseason, 4-0 at home

Over/Under Trends

• Philadelphia 76ers- Over is 1-3 in postseason, but 44-36-2 in all regular season games

• Boston Celtics- Over is 4-2 in postseason, 1-2 in games played in Boston

• Phoenix Suns- Over is 4-1-1 in postseason

• Denver Nuggets- Over is 4-2 in postseason, but 20-24-1 overall when Denver plays at home

Spread Trends

• Philadelphia 76ers- 3-0-1 against the spread (ATS) in postseason. 47-34-1 (58%) ATS in regular season. 10-10 ATS as away underdog

• Boston Celtics- 4-2 ATS in postseason, 24-18 as home favorite

• Phoenix Suns- 2-4 ATS in postseason, 9-13-1 overall as away underdog

• Denver Nuggets- 4-2 ATS in postseason, 44-37-1 ATS (54.3%) in regular season

Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics

• Philadelphia 76ers

  • Joel Embiid (Doubtful)

• Boston Celtics

  • Danilo Gallinari (OUT)

Phoenix Suns @ Denver Nuggets

• Phoenix Suns

  • No Players

• Denver Nuggets

  • Collin Gillespie (OUT)

💼 Steph Curry scores 50 points, sends the No.3 seed packing. Golden State Warriors point guard Stephen Curry put on a show in Game 7 against Sacramento on Sunday afternoon. Curry ended the game with 50 points, a new Game 7 record, to go along with eight rebounds and six assists. The performance was the 56th playoff game in Curry’s career where he scored more than 30 points.

🔥 Miami stays red hot. Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat continued to build on their Round 1 performance, stealing a Game 1 victory over the Knicks in Madison Square Garden. Butler had 25 points and 11 rebounds in a 108-101 victory, the fifth win of the postseason for Miami. Butler did injure his ankle late in the fourth quarter in a collision with Knicks guard Josh Hart, an injury that could linger as the series progresses.

💰 Dillon Brooks fined following series with Lakers. Memphis Grizzlies forward Dillon Brooks was fined $25,000 by the NBA for refusing the speak with the media following a Game 4 loss to the Lakers. Brooks made several comments about the Lakers and LeBron James before and during Round 1, but Brooks and Memphis failed to back up any of those comments and lost the series.

There is only one NHL game scheduled to take place today, which is Game 7 between the New York Rangers and New Jersey Devils.

There are no 3-star plays in the NHL today.

Money Line Trends

• New York Rangers- 3-3 in the series, but 2-1 on the road.

• New Jersey Devils- 1-2 at home in series, but 24-13-4 at home in regular season

Over/Under Trends

• Under is 3-3 in series, but 2-1 in New Jersey with an average total of 4.67

Puck Line Trends

• New York Rangers- 3-3 on Puck Line in series, 2-1 on Puck Line on road

• New Jersey Devils- 3-3 on Puck Line in series, 1-2 on Puck Line at home

New York Rangers @ New Jersey Devils

• New York Rangers

  • No Players

• New Jersey Devils

  • Jonathan Bernier (OUT)

😲 Panthers shock the Bruins, win Game 7. The Florida Panthers came back from a 3-1 series deficit to beat the Boston Bruins on Sunday and advance to the second round. Boston was coming off a season in which it set the NHL record for wins with 65, garnering 22 more points than any other team in the NHL. Carter Verhaeghe scored the game winning goal for Florida in overtime. Florida will face the Toronto Maple Leafs next.

🏒 Kraken defeat the defending Stanley Cup Champs. The NHL’s newest franchise, the Seattle Kraken, are starting to make a name for themselves. Seattle beat the Colorado Avalanche in Round 1 after a 2-1 victory in Game 7 last night, the first series win in the franchises short history. The Avalanche are now 0-6 in Game 7s dating back to 2022. Seattle will face Dallas in Round 2.

❓ Bergeron’s future in Boston comes into question. People are starting to question Patrice Bergeron’s future as a Boston Bruin after last night’s season-ending defeat. The 37 year old will be a unrestricted free agent this summer, but deflected any questions from reporters last night about his future. Boston drafted Bergeron in 2003 and he has been a key piece to the franchise’s success ever since.

Monday is generally a quiet day for baseball, and today is no exception. There are seven games scheduled to take place, but our model has predictions for just four of those matchups.

Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals

Model Predicts- Cubs ML, UNDER 8.5, Nationals +1.5

The Chicago Cubs and Washington Nationals will kickoff a four-game series this evening in Washington.

Chicago enters today with a 14-13 record, good enough for third in the NL Central. However, Chicago is riding a three-game losing streak after being swept by the Marlins over the weekend, a sign of distress after a solid start to the season.

Washington is no better. The Nationals picked up a victory yesterday against the Pittsburgh Pirates, but Washington is 10-17 on the season and last in the NL East.

On paper this isn’t the most exciting matchup, but our model identified an edge that we believe is worth taking a look at. Let’s dive into the matchup and make a betting pick for Game 1 of the Cubs vs Nationals series.

Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs did not play great baseball over the last week. The Cubs are 2-6 dating back to April 22nd, signs that things are starting to slow down after winning four straight games prior to that slump.

Chicago’s most recent failures came over the weekend against the Miami Marlins. Chicago was 0-3 in that series, losing each game by one run.

However, the model believes Chicago can start to turn things around today, with the biggest factor being some stability on the mound.

Drew Smyly (2-1 record, 3.21 ERA) is set to get the start today for the Cubs. Smyly has done a great job of limiting contact, as evidenced by his 0.93 WHIP, and per Baseball Savant ranks in the 92nd percentile in Hard Hit %.

Additionally, Smyly’s xERA (expected ERA) comes in at just 2.38. His actual ERA of 3.21 is great, but it is a result of having some things break the wrong way. Those will begin to balance out in the future.

Washington Nationals

There isn’t much to be excited about if you’re a Nationals fan. Washington has struggled with just about everything through 27 games, and most of it can be blamed on its performance at the plate.

This Nationals team can’t seem to find a way to score runs. According to TeamRankings Washington ranks 27th in the MLB in runs per game with 3.85, and on its home field that number drops to 3.00.

The low scoring output is largely due to the fact that the Nationals are a team that often fails to make hard contact. Per Baseball Savant Washington owns a 4.3 % Barrel %, which ranks in the bottom 1% of the MLB and is well below the league average of 8.2%. Washington is also in the bottom 3% of the league in average exit velocity at 87.2 mph.

Luckily MacKenzie Gore (3-1 record, 3.00 ERA) will get the start on the mound for the Nats. The 24 year old has been solid this year, ranking in the 87th percentile of Strikeout % and 90th percentile in Whiff %.

What’s the Play?

The Washington Nationals simply can’t hit the baseball on a consistent enough basis to win many games. Even when they do it isn’t often hit hard very hard, and that is unlikely to change against Smyly today.

Gore gives Washington a chance here, but he does have some flaws. Gore struggles with his control a bit and is prone to walking batters, ranking him in the bottom 12% of the MLB in Walk %. Additionally, the Cubs have lit up left-handed pitchers this season, ranking third in the MLB in OPS against lefties (.834), per StatMuse.

This certainly isn’t the prettiest bet to make, but our model has the Cubs ML set at -143 and it is available down to -130 on some books. We believe that provides good value for a team that is set to turn things around.

3-star play: Cubs ML (-135)

Money Line Trends

• New York Yankees- 2-6 in last eight games, 2-3 when Domingo Germán gets the starts

• Washington Nationals- 3-11 (21.4%) at home this season, the third lowest win percentage in the MLB

Over/Under Trends

• San Francisco Giants- Over is 6-5 as away team

• Houston Astros- Over is 9-6-1 as home team

Run Line Trends

• Washington Nationals- Run line is 16-11 overall

Various injuries around the league. See all injuries over at MLB.com

👀 Bryce Harper could be back in the lineup this week. Phillies slugger and 2021 MVP Bryce Harper could make his return to the Phillies lineup this week against the Dodgers. Harper had Tommy John surgery in November to fix a lingering elbow issue, but after only five months it appears Harper is ready to go. Harper will likely slot in as a designated hitter, but he has been taking reps at first base and could fill that void for Philly.

🧹 Padres sweep Giants in Mexico City. The San Diego Padres strung together a three-run eighth inning yesterday against the San Francisco Giants, allowing them to win by a final score of 6-4. The win marked the second for San Diego in the Mexico City Series, the first stop on the MLB World Tour. The next stop on the tour will be London, England, a series featuring the St. Louis Cardinals and the Chicago Cubs.

🤕 Twins shut down Tyler Mahle. The Minnesota Twins announced that right-handed pitcher Tyler Mahle will be shut down for at least four weeks as he deals with an elbow injury. Mahle left his start on Thursday against the Kansas City Royals in the fourth inning but wasn’t concerned about the injury. Mahle is 1-2 on the season with a 3.16 ERA.

🐎 Broncos pick up Jeudy’s fifth-year option. The Denver Broncos picked up Jerry Jeudy’s fifth-year option this morning. Jeudy has been the sbject of trade rumors all offseason as his skillset is highly desirable, but Denver has remained firm in saying that they want Jeudy on the roster. Jeudy’s option is worth $12.987 million and is fully guaranteed.

🖊 Buffalo signs Latavius Murray. The Buffalo Bills signed running back Latavius Murray to a one-year deal this morning. The signing comes after Devin Singletary left for the Houston Texans earlier in the offseason. Murray will bring plenty of experience to Buffalo’s backfield as he has been in the league since 2014, rushing for 6252 yards and 55 touchdowns in his career.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

1. The NBA’s MVP award is given to one player every season, considered to be the most prestigious individual award handed out. Three players in NBA history have won the award in three consecutive seasons. Who are they?

2. Several MLB pitchers have thrown a no-hitter in their time in the big leagues, but Nolan Ryan stands alone at the top of the list for the most no-hitters in MLB history. How many no-hitters did Ryan throw in his career?

3. Every professional sports league has expanded at some point, adding new teams to the mix every now and then. The last time the NBA expanded was in 2004 when they added which team?

Anyone know what has happened on May 1st throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On May 1st…

1920- The Brooklyn Robins and Boston Braves play the longest game in MLB history, taking 26 innings. The game ended in a 1-1 tie.

1988- Chicago Bulls legend Michael Jordan scores 55 points in a 106-101 win over the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 2 of a playoff series. After scoring 50 points in Game 1, Jordan became the first player in NBA history to score 50+ points in consecutive playoff games.

1991- Texas Rangers legend Nolan Ryan pitches his MLB record 7th no-hitter against Toronto. He accomplished the feat at 44 years old, making him the oldest pitcher to throw a no-hitter. (We made our trivia questions before the history section, so we had no idea this happened)

2018- Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah is named the England Football Writer’s Footballer of the Year. He became the first African player to win the award.

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1. Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, Larry Bird

2. 7

3. Charlotte Bobcats