In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were no model predictions yesterday, December 18, 2023.

The NBA has given us just four games on Tuesday after a busy Monday night. Our model’s predictions for today’s matchups can be found below.

Boston Celtics @ Golden State Warriors

Model Predicts- Celtics ML, UNDER 231.5, Celtics -5.5

The Boston Celtics will kick off a four-game West Coast road trip on Tuesday, with the first stop coming in the Bay Area to take on the Warriors.

Boston enters tonight’s battle as perhaps the best team in the NBA, winning 20 of its first 25 games. That includes a recent five-game win streak dating back to December 8th, further highlighting how well the Celtics have performed as of late. Golden State hasn’t had nearly as much success overall, but the Warriors also enter tonight’s matchup with some momentum after winning two consecutive games.

Boston has had its fair share of struggles on the road this season, but our model still forecasts the Celtics to cover the spread tonight. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Boston Celtics

• Enter tonight on five-game win streak

  • Beat Knicks, Cavaliers (twice), and Magic (twice)

  • +11.3 Net Rating in that time

• Have had far more success at home than on road

  • 14-0 at home, 6-5 on the road

  • 14.9-point swing in Net Rating outside of TD Garden

• Some injury concerns tonight

  • Luke Kornet (OUT), Kristaps Porzingis (Questionable)

Golden State Warriors

• Enter tonight on two-game win streak

  • Beat Nets and Trail Blazers. Won by four points in both games

• Team has struggled to find winning formula

  • 12-14 overall this season, 6-6 at home

  • +0.1 Net Rating for season, -1.4 Net Rating at home

• Injuries are affecting depth

  • Draymond Green and Gary Payton are OUT, Chris Paul questionable

What’s the Play?

Boston has struggled to get much done on the road this season, but we agree with our model to back the Celtics in this spot.

Golden State’s struggles at home are evident, and it starts with weak perimeter defense. The Warriors allow their opponents to shoot 36.2% from behind the arc while at home this season, presenting a major flaw that a Celtics team shooting 41.5% from three over the last five games can exploit.

Boston will be a prime fade candidate as the Celtics get further along in this road trip, but with tons of momentum on their side and some serious matchup advantages, tonight isn’t that night.

The Play: Celtics -5.5 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• New Orleans Pelicans- 16-11 overall this season, 4-0 in last four games

• Boston Celtics- 20-5 overall this season, 5-0 in last five games

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Phoenix Suns- Under is 6-5 this season as the away team

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Boston Celtics- 12-11-2 against the spread (ATS) this season

⭐️ Big 3 shines in Clippers’ win over Pacers. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George led the Clippers in a dominant victory against Indiana, contributing 28 and 27 points, respectively. James Harden took charge in the fourth quarter, scoring 21 of his season-best 35 points, securing the Clippers' eighth consecutive win, the franchise's longest streak since 2015-16. The Pacers struggled defensively, allowing the Clippers to post the fourth-highest scoring total in franchise history, while George continued to haunt his former team with an average of 36 points in his last five games at Indiana.

📉 Pistons extend losing streak to 24 games. Trae Young continued his impressive form with 31 points and 15 assists, leading the Atlanta Hawks to a 130-124 victory over the Detroit Pistons, who suffered their 24th consecutive loss. Cade Cunningham had a career-high 43 points for the Pistons, but did receive much help along the way. The Hawks dominated early with a lead they maintained, hitting 16-of-36 three-pointers, while Detroit struggled despite Cunningham's leadership through the tough stretch without a win.

11 NHL games are scheduled to take place all throughout the country tonight. Our model’s predictions for all 11 matchups can be found below.

Columbus Blue Jackets @ Buffalo Sabres

Model Predicts- Sabres ML, OVER 6.5, Blue Jackets +1.5

The Columbus Blue Jackets will hit the road for a short one-game road trip on Tuesday, making the journey to Buffalo, New York to take on the Sabres.

Columbus enters this matchup in a bit of a free fall, losing five of its last seven games after their recent 6-3 loss to the New Jersey Devils. However, Buffalo isn’t much better, as the Sabres have yet to win consecutive games this season, resulting in a poor 13-16-3 record.

Neither one of these teams is all that appealing to bet on, but our model spots an edge on the total in this matchup, Let’s dive into why that is.

Columbus Blue Jackets

• Defense has struggled a ton over last seven games

  • Surrendering 4.43 goals per game in that time

  • -9 goal differential in that time

• Poor defense has been case for most of season

  • Rank 30th in xGF/60 in 5-on-5 as the away team

  • Allow far too much pressure on net- 34.5 shots on goal per game

• Expected goalie- Elvis Merzlikins

  • .906 Save % in 5-on-5. Ranks 36th in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) with +1.2.

Buffalo Sabres

• Struggling offensive attack

  • Rank 21st in shots on goal per game. 27th in power play success

  • Rank 21st in xGF/60 on 5-on-5

• Offense has seen improvements at home

  • xGF/60 in 5-on-5 is 0.28 goals higher at home than on road

  • 3.33 goals per game in last three home games

• Expected goalie- Devon Levi

  • .912 Save % in 5-on-5. Ranks 26th in GSAx (+3.7)

What’s the Play?

Goals haven’t always been easy to come by for Columbus and Buffalo this season, but we agree with our model on the over in this spot.

Buffalo’s offense has seen notable improvement in home games this month, posting a stellar 3.14 xGF/60 in 5-on-5 situations. The pucks haven’t always found the back of the net, but that is a sign that they will in the near future, and it can easily happen against a poor road defense like the Blue Jackets.

However, we shouldn’t count out the Blue Jackets to score some goals of their own, as Columbus ranks 10th in GF/60 in 5-on-5 and has shown to be a capable offense.

The over is a perfect 6-0 in the last six Blue Jackets games, with the average total coming in at 8.50. We’ll back that trend to continue.

The Play: Over 6.5 (-120)

Money Line Trends 💰

• New Jersey Devils- 16-12-1 overall this season, 7-3-0 in last 10 games

• Los Angeles Kings- 17-6-4 overall this season, 12-1-1 as the away team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Philadelphia Flyers- Under is 18-12 this season with average total of 5.63

• Columbus Blue Jackets- Over is 19-13 this season with average total of 6.66

Puck Line Trends ➕➖

• Philadelphia Flyers- Puck line is 21-9 this season

• Vancouver Canucks- Puck line is 23-8 this season

😬 Senators fire D.J. Smith. The Ottawa Senators have fired head coach D.J. Smith after losing four straight games, appointing Jacques Martin as interim coach and adding Daniel Alfredsson as an assistant coach. Smith, in his fifth season, had a 131-154-32 record without reaching the playoffs. Martin, a former coach of the team, brings detailed and structured play, while Alfredsson, the franchise's all-time leader, joins after a brief stint with the coaching staff in November.

💪 Larkin returns to Red Wings lineup. Detroit Red Wings captain Dylan Larkin returned to the lineup against the Anaheim Ducks on Monday. Larkin missed four games due to an injury sustained on Dec. 9 when he was hit in the head by Mathieu Joseph and had Artem Zub fall on his legs. Despite the absence, Larkin is close to the team lead in goals and points for the season, with 11 goals and 15 assists in 24 games, contributing to the Red Wings' 15-12-4 record in the Atlantic Division.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- The Buffalo Bills made four consecutive Super Bowls from 1991-1994. How many of those games did they win?

Question #2- Six active NBA players attended Texas A&M University. Which of those players is on the Milwaukee Bucks?

Question #3- Matt Olson led the MLB in what two stat categories last season?

Anyone know what has happened on December 19th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On December 19th…

1984- Scotty Bowman wins his 691st game as an NHL head coach. The win moved Bowman into first place on the all-time list, where he remains to this day. He would end his career with 1,244 wins, becoming the only coach to surpass 970 wins.

2010- The Philadelphia Eagles pull off a stunning comeback against the New York Giants, a game that would be known as the “Miracle in the New Meadowlands”. The Eagles trailed the Giants by 21 points with eight minutes left to play, but scored four late touchdowns to win the game. Star receiver Desean Jackson scored the winning TD, a walk-off punt return.

2018- The Houston Rockets set an NBA record by making 26 three-pointers. The record came in a 136-118 win over the Washington Wizards, with eight different Rockets players making at least one three-pointer. James Harden led the way from behind the arc, nailing six of his 11 three-point attempts.

1. 0

2. Khris Middleton

3. Home runs, RBIs