In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

Additional Model Predictions & Bonuses ⬇️

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There were no model predictions yesterday, June 30, 2024.

Three MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all three matchups can be found below.

Houston Astros @ Toronto Blue Jays

Model Predicts- Astros ML, UNDER 9, Astros -1.5

The Houston Astros will continue their 10-game road trip on Monday afternoon, with the next stop coming in Canada to take on the Toronto Blue Jays.

Houston enters todays matchup as one of the hottest teams in the MLB, posting victories in nine of its last ten games. That hot stretch now gives the Astros a 42-41 record for the season, while Toronto sits in the basement of the AL East with a 38-45 record.

These two teams are trending in opposite directions at the moment, and our model expects that to continue today as it projects the Astros to win by a significant margin. Let’s dive into why that is.

Houston Astros

• Enter series with Toronto red hot

  • Have won nine of last ten games dating back to June 19th

  • +31 run differential in that span

• Offense is crushing left and right-hander pitching in last 10 games

  • Vs righties- 143 wRC+ (4th), .350 BABIP (1st), and .865 OPS (4th)

  • Vs lefties- 130 wRC+ (13th), .429 BABIP (2nd), .801 OPS (13th)

• Starting pitcher- Hunter Brown

  • Due to see positive regression- 4.37 ERA vs 3.33 xERA

  • Ranks in top 13% in Hard Hit rate (32.3%) and Barrel rate (4.5%)

Toronto Blue Jays

• Enter this series in big slump

  • Have lost nine of last 12 games dating back to June 17th

  • Own -20 run differential in that span

• Pitching staff has been reason for sub-par stretch

  • Starters- 6.27 ERA (28th), 4.32 xFIP (24th), and 2.24 HR/9 (29th) since June 17th

  • Relievers- 5.04 ERA (25th), 4.23 xFIP (22nd)

• Starting pitcher- Yariel Rodriguez

  • Pitching to expectations- 5.94 ERA vs 5.78 xERA

  • Struggling with control and hard contact- 13.6% Walk rate, 42.3% Hard Hit rat

What’s the Play?

Houston being in the midst of a grueling road trip might be a small concern for some, but we agree with our model that the Astros should take care of business in Game 1 this afternoon.

The gap in talent of the mound this afternoon is significant. Hunter Brown, who was getting lit up to begin the year, has finally found his footing, allowing just one earned run over his last 25.0 innings. His 3.33 xERA shows that we should continue to see performances just like that in the future, while Rodriguez is likely to still find himself in some tough spots due to his high walk rate and vulnerability to hard contact.

It took over three months, but this Astros team is finally above .500 and has the tools on the mound and at the plate today to keep their momentum going. Our model projects Houston as a -220 favorite today, so we’ll be taking the Astros at -140.

The Play: Astros ML (-140)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Houston Astros- 42-41 overall this season, 9-1 in last ten games

• Milwaukee Brewers- 50-34 overall this season, 23-21 as the away team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Houston Astros- Under is 48-31-4 this season, 23-14-1 as the away team

• New York Mets- Over is 43-36-2 this season, 22-10-2 as the away team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Washington Nationals- Run line is 48-35 this season, 16-12 as a home underdog

⚾️ MLB makes rule changes to Home Run Derby. Major League Baseball announced changes to the Home Run Derby, reintroducing "outs" and implementing a pitch count limit. In the new format, contestants have a limited time and number of pitches in each round, with the first round featuring all eight participants and the top four advancing to the semi-finals based on the most home runs. The event will no longer use an extra-time tiebreaker, instead deciding ties by the longest home run, and Gunnar Henderson is the first confirmed participant for this year's Derby, which will be held in Texas on July 15.

🔄 White Sox likely to trade Crochet after extension talks fall through. The Chicago White Sox plan to trade ace Garrett Crochet before the July 30 trade deadline after unsuccessful extension talks, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Crochet, who won't reach free agency until after the 2026 season, has shifted to a starting role this year and is having a breakout season with a 3.02 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and 141 strikeouts in 101 1/3 innings. Despite trade rumors, Crochet is focused on his current performance with the White Sox, who drafted him 11th overall in 2020.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Who led the MLB in hits during the 2006 season, recording 224 in total?

Question #2- After signing with the Philadelphia 76ers, Paul George will now have played for four teams in his NBA career. What are the other three teams?

Question #3- Aaron Rodgers led the NFL in touchdown passes during the 2016 season. How many did he throw?

Anyone know what has happened on July 1st throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On July 1st…

1982- MLB legend Cal Ripken Jr. makes the start at shortstop for the Baltimore Orioles. The start would mark the beginning of an historic run for Ripken Jr., one that saw him play in 2,632 consecutive games. He still holds the consecutive games played record to this day, with Lou Gehrig sitting in second at 2,130.

1991- MLB pitcher Michael Wacha is born in Iowa City, Iowa. Wacha stormed onto the baseball scene during his time at Pleasant Grove High School in Texas, where he played well enough to earn a spot on Texas A&M’s roster. He would later be selected in the first round of the 2012 MLB Draft by the St. Louis Cardinals, and has also played for the Mets, Rays, Red Sox, Padres, and Royals in his career.

2018- NBA star LeBron James signs with the Los Angeles Lakers. James’ deal was worth $154 million over four years, and marked the second time in is career he left the Cleveland Cavaliers organization. James led the Lakers to and NBA title in 2020, and still plays for the team today.

1. Ichiro Suzuki

2. Indiana Pacers, Oklahoma City Thunder, Los Angeles Clippers

3. 40