In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter presented by SportSense Premium…

Additional Model Predictions ⬇️

NBA Model Predictions- Click Here

NHL Model Predictions- Click Here

There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the NBA, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 1-0

Over/Under Predictions: 0-1

Spread Predictions: 1-0

Featured Matchup: 1-0

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15 MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all 15 matchups can be found below.

Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals

Model Predicts- Nationals ML, OVER 8, Nationals +1.5

The Toronto Blue Jays and Washington Nationals will wrap up a three-game series on Sunday afternoon, with the final game taking place at 1:35 PM Eastern at Nationals Park.

Both teams have had mixed results since the weekend began, with Washington winning Game 1 and Toronto winning Game 2. The split series is an accurate reflection of how each team’s season has gone so far, as the Blue Jays enter this afternoon with a 16-18 record, while the Nationals have won 16 games and lost 17.

Alek Manoah is making his return to the mound today for Toronto, which has shifted our model’s projections tremendously toward the Nationals in Game 3. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Toronto Blue Jays

• Lost Game 1 of series, but figured things out in Game 2

  • Game 1- lost 9-3, surrendered 12 hits in total and allowed four runs in seventh and eighth innings

  • Game 2- won 6-3, recorded nine hits to Washington’s six

• Offense has struggled this season, but is better against lefties

  • Season- rank 21st in wRC+ (96) and OPS (.667), 27th in BABIP (.265)

  • Against lefties- wRC+ rises to 107, OPS to .705, BABIP to .280

  • Face left-hander MacKenzie Gore today

• Starting pitcher- Alek Manoah

  • Making first start of season after failing to make Opening Day roster

  • Ranked in bottom 10% in xERA (6.12), Walk rate (14.2%), and Hard Hit rate (44.2%) last season

Washington Nationals

• Similar offensive struggles to Toronto this season

  • 23rd in wRC+ (93), 22nd in BABIP (.277)

  • Been held to three runs or less in three of last four games

• Offense sees slight uptick in production against right-handers

  • wRC+ increases to 98, while BABIP rises to .283

  • Six out of eight earned runs for Toronto pitchers in this series have been from right-handed pitchers

• Starting Pitcher- MacKenzie Gore

  • Pretty much playing to expectations- 3.19 ERA vs 3.51 xERA

  • Has made big strides from last season- Hard Hit rate improved by 10.4%, Strikeout rate (29.0%) up 3.1% while walk rate (6.9%) down 2.9%

What’s the Play?

Toronto facing a left-handed pitcher certainly benefits its offense, but we agree with our model that Washington can pick up another win this afternoon.

The only reason Alek Manoah is back in the majors is because Yariel Rodriguez was placed on the IL, and if that did not occur then Manoah would still be in the minor leagues. Manoah has posted a 8.69 ERA and 1.98 WHIP across 19.2 innings in the minor leagues this season, showing that the 26-year-old is nowhere close to being the pitcher he used to be.

Additionally, Toronto doesn’t have a great supporting cast behind Manoah, as the Blue Jays’ bullpen ranks 27th in ERA (5.18) and xFIP (4.55). That group owns a poor 11.18 ERA in this series, and has posted a 36.4% ground ball rate and 1.59 home runs per nine innings (HR/9), showing that Washington is sizing up the ball well late in games.

The Nationals shouldn’t have much trouble getting out to an early lead today and continuing to build on it in the late stages of the game. As a result, we’ll take the Nationals on the money line, which our model believes should be closer to -130.

The Play: Nationals ML (-115)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Oakland Athletics- 17-17 overall this season, 6-0 in last six games

• San Diego Padres- 18-18 overall this season, 4-0 in last four games

• Baltimore Orioles- 22-11 overall this season, 10-4 as the away team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Milwaukee Brewers- Over is 19-12-1 this season, highest win percentage in MLB

• Seattle Mariners- Under is 24-7-2 this season, 11-3 as the away team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Kansas City Royals- Run line is 21-13 this season, 11-8 as the home team

📖 Arraez makes history in Padres debut. After being traded to the San Diego Padres, NL batting champion Luis Arraez made an immediate impact by becoming the first player in Padres history to achieve a four-hit game in his debut with the team. His stellar performance included a double and three singles, contributing to a 13-1 victory over the Arizona Diamondbacks. Arraez expressed excitement about his new team's energy and credited his successful day to bringing his own enthusiasm to the game.

💪 Athletics score 20 runs in win over Marlins. The Oakland Athletics put on an offensive performance on Saturday that is rarely seen, scoring 20 runs in a 20-4 win over the Miami Marlins. Brent Rooker played a key role in the slaughter, hitting two home runs and recording five RBIs in the third inning, while Brett Harris also hit two homers in the game. Oakland recorded 21 hits in total, and now sits at the .500 mark and in third place in the AL West.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Three guards were selected inside the top-five in the 2017 NBA Draft, one from Washington, one from UCLA, and one from Kentucky. Who were those players?

Question #2- What MLB team did Anthony Rendon play for from 2013-19 before his current stint with the Los Angeles Angels?

Question #3- What Oklahoma City Thunder player led the NBA in blocks during the 2012-13 season, recording 242 in total?

Anyone know what has happened on May 5th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On May 5th…

1978- Former MLB player Pete Rose records his 3,000th career hit. Rose became the 14th player in MLB history to reach the milestone, a result of hitting a single in the fifth inning against the Montreal Expos. Rose would end his career with 4,256 hits, which is currently the most by a player in MLB history.

1985- American basketball player P.J. Tucker is born in Raleigh, North Carolina. Tucker stormed on to the basketball scene during his time at William G. Enloe High School, where he was named the North Carolina player of the Year and earned a scholarship to the University of Texas. He would later be selected in the second round of the 2006 NBA Draft, and currently plays for the Los Angeles Clippers.

2021- Baltimore Orioles pitcher John Means throws a no-hitter in a 6-0 win over the Seattle Mariners. It took Means 113 pitches to record 27 outs, with 12 of those outs being strikeouts. The no-hitter was the first for Means in his career, and it was the third of the 2021 season.

1. Markelle Fultz, Lonzo Ball, De’Aaron Fox

2. Washington Nationals

3. Serge Ibaka