In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how each of the models performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 7-5

Over/Under Predictions: 4-8

Run Line Predictions: 11-1

Featured Matchup 0-1

🚔 Jimmy Graham arrested following “medical episode”. New Orleans Saints tight end Jimmy Graham was taken into custody in Southern California following a medical incident marked by erratic behavior, according to the team's announcement. The Saints' statement suggests that Graham likely experienced a seizure, which led to his disorientation and subsequent arrest. He was released from the hospital and has rejoined the Saints, but it's uncertain whether he will participate in the upcoming game against the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday.

🏈 C.J. Stroud plays entire first half in second preseason game. Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud improved in his second preseason game with the Texans against the Dolphins, following a shaky performance against the Patriots. Although the Texans had an early opportunity starting on the Dolphins' 7-yard line due to an interception, Stroud faced challenges during their first drive, resulting in a delay of game penalty and incomplete passes. However, he rebounded in the subsequent drive, connecting with multiple receivers and helping the Texans earn points. He would end the first half completing 7 of 12 passes for 60 yards.

🤕 Packers/Patriots game ends early after injury. The Week 2 preseason match between the New England Patriots and Green Bay Packers was called off after Patriots' Isaiah Bolden got injured in the fourth quarter, following a collision with teammate Calvin Munson while trying to tackle Packers' Malik Heath. Bolden was hit in the head, fell motionless, and was subsequently stretchered off the field. The game concluded right after this incident by mutual agreement of both teams. Later, the Patriots provided an update stating that Bolden had sensation in all limbs and was sent to a local hospital for further evaluation, where he has since been released.

There are 12 MLB games set to take place throughout this afternoon and evening, and our model has predictions for all 12 matchups.

Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians

Model Predicts- Tigers ML, OVER 7.5, Guardians +1.5 (-192)

The Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians will square off in the final game of a three-game series on Sunday afternoon at Progressive Field.

Detroit has had the upper hand in the series up to this point, taking a 2-1 series lead after defeating Cleveland 4-3 on Saturday. The victory was also the sixth in the last ten games for Detroit, a sign that the Tigers are putting the pieces together down the stretch.

Several trends and underlying metrics have hinted that there has been value on the Tigers this entire series, and our model once again believes there is value on Detroit this afternoon. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Detroit Tigers

The Detroit Tigers are far from the most exciting team in baseball, but Detroit has shown in recent weeks that its young talent will be able to hang with the best-of-the-best in the major leagues sooner rather than later.

As previously mentioned, the Tigers are 6-4 in their last ten games, a stretch in which Detroit ranks eighth in the MLB in wRC+ (117), per FanGraphs. Surprisingly, Detroit owns an abysmal 26.1% strikeout rate and 6.3% walk rate in that same ten-game span, but the team’s league-leading 19 home runs has been able to push the Tigers into the win column.

We’ve seen that same level of power from Detroit in their season series with the Guardians. The Tigers have sent nine balls over the wall across nine games against Cleveland, including four in the last three games, catapulting Detroit to a 6-3 record in the season series.

This team isn’t known for its power, ranking 24th in home runs and 29th in OPS, but the Guardians clearly provide the Tigers with a great matchup.

Detroit will trot Eduardo Rodriguez (8-6 record, 3.13 ERA) out to the mound this afternoon to keep Cleveland off the base paths, and hopefully allow the Tigers to build a lead. Rodriguez allowed 10 hits and six earned runs in his last start against Boston, but the left-hander’s 3.50 xERA still isn’t much higher than his season ERA. He also ranks in the top 26% of the majors in Hard Hit Rate, Barrel Rate, and walk rate, showing that performances like last week’s are few and far between.

Cleveland Guardians

Logan Allen (6-5 record, 3.33 ERA) will take the mound as today’s starter for Cleveland, putting Cleveland in an interesting position in today’s matchup.

Despite his 3.33 ERA, the rookie pitcher has been the definition of average this season. Allen ranks in the bottom 50% of the majors in strikeout rate, Hard Hit rate, Barrel Rate, and Walk rate, showing that he hasn’t been as impressive as the surface-level numbers indicate. His 4.26 xERA is also nearly one full run above his season ERA, hinting at regression in the future.

The likely cause of that regression will be Allen’s lack of control and fastball velocity. Per Baseball Savant, Allen owns a 9.2% walk rate this season, one that has spiked to 13.8% in his last four starts. Additionally, his fastball, a pitch he throws 45.4% of the time, comes in at just 91 mph, resulting in a .260 xBA and 11.3% Barrel rate.

Allen has surrendered just 11 home runs this season, but 10 have come against his fastball, further proving its vulnerability.

As previously discussed, Detroit isn’t known for its power and hasn’t drawn many walks recently, but Allen puts the team in position to do both today.

What’s the Play?

Eduardo Rodriguez may have been shelled last week, but the Tigers have far more stability on the mound today when compared to Logan Allen’s erratic pitching style. As a result, we agree with our model on backing the Tigers this afternoon.

One huge factor in this game is Cleveland’s inability to hit left-handed pitching, which has shown up the entire month of August. Cleveland sits last in the MLB in wRC+ against lefties this month, and those struggles have led to a brutal .441 OPS .208 BABIP in those situations.

Detroit has had the upper hand in this series all season long, and that appears to be the case again today.

The Play: Tigers ML (-110)

Money Line Trends💰

• Seattle Mariners- 68-55 overall this season, 7-2 against the Houston Astros

• Detroit Tigers- 56-67 overall this season, 24-15 against division opponents (Play AL Central rival Cleveland this afternoon)

• Boston Red Sox- 65-58 overall this season, 7-3 in last ten games

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Toronto Blue Jays- Under is 69-49-6 this season, second-highest win percentage in MLB

• Chicago Cubs- Over is 63-54-5 this season, 35-25-4 as the home team

• Baltimore Orioles- Over is 61-53-9 this season, 33-26-5 as the away team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Cincinnati Reds- Run line is 78-46 overall this season, 38-26 as the home team

• Baltimore Orioles- Run line is 76-47 overall this season, 14-5 as a road favorite

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com.

⬇️ Toronto sends Paul DeJong to minors. The Toronto Blue Jays designated veteran infielder Pual DeJong for assignment on Saturday, just 18 days after being acquired from the St. Louis Cardinals. Initially brought in to provide depth during All-Star shortstop Bo Bichette's absence due to a knee issue, DeJong's struggles combined with Bichette's return prompted the decision to remove him from the roster. Toronto's general manager, Ross Atkins, expressed enthusiasm for the acquisition, citing DeJong's defensive skills and effectiveness against left-handed pitchers, but the infielder's lackluster performance in Toronto, where he managed just three hits and one RBI in 14 games, led to his departure.

☎️ Reds call up top prospect Noelvi Marte. The Cincinnati Reds have promoted their top prospect, Noelvi Marte, adding to a group of promising rookies as they strive to secure their first division title in over ten years. Marte, acquired in a significant trade last year involving Luis Castillo, has demonstrated consistent performance in both Double-A and Triple-A this season, boasting a .279/.358/.454 batting line along with 11 home runs and 18 stolen bases. Despite his achievements, finding a lineup spot for Marte is a challenge due to the Reds' cluster of young talents, including Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Spencer Steer, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand, all of whom play shortstop or third base.

👎 Yankees drop seventh straight game after loss to Red Sox. The New York Yankees continued to stumble down the AL East standings, losing to division rival Boston in what was New York’s seventh consecutive loss. Yankees pitcher Gerrit Cole was shelled early and often, surrendering a grand slam in the second inning and a two-run homer in the fourth. New York combatted Cole’s poor day on the mound by recording just two hits and one run, pushing New York three games below .500 with just over one month to play.

🔎 NBA launches probe into James Harden, 76ers. The NBA is investigating the incident where Philadelphia 76ers star James Harden publicly criticized the team's president of basketball operations, Daryl Morey, to determine if it violates the collective bargaining agreement. The league is trying to understand if Harden's comments implied a potential holdout in the upcoming season or involved past contract talks that might breach salary cap regulations. Despite this, Harden privately claimed his remarks were in response to trade discussions ending with the expectation that he would start the season with the Sixers. Harden, who had expected a trade to the LA Clippers, plans to attend the team's training camp as requested.

🥊 Sean O’Malley pulls off upset at UFC 292. Sean O'Malley emerged from the Octagon, embraced the crowd's cheers at TD Garden, and accepted a beer from a fan, downing it in celebration. The Gen Z sensation, known as "Suga," solidified his superstar status by defeating Aljamain Sterling in UFC 292's main event, pushing his record to a stellar 17-1. With a well-timed right-hand counter, O'Malley secured the UFC bantamweight championship, claiming victory by TKO at 51 seconds into the second round.

⛳️ Scottie Scheffler, Matt Fitzpatrick share lead at BMW Championship. Matt Fitzpatrick from England and the United States' world number one, Scottie Scheffler, are in a tie for the lead ahead of the BMW Championship's final round. Fitzpatrick, the previous year's US Open victor, posted a 66 despite a bogey on his last hole, while Scheffler, the 2022 Masters champion, recorded seven birdies in a 64 round. They hold a one-stroke lead over Brian Harman, the Open champion, at Olympia Fields in Illinois, while Northern Ireland's Rory McIlroy trails by three strokes after his third-round 67.

Today’s trivia requires you to go back to 2012. We’ve given you the first five quarterbacks selected in the 2012 NFL Draft, and it’s your job to guess which college/university each player attended before their NFL career.

As always, answers are at the end of the newsletter.

Anyone know what has happened on August 20th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On August 20th…

1945- 17-year-old Tommy Brown of the Brooklyn Dodgers becomes the youngest player in MLB history to hit a home run. Despite the history-making hit, Brown’s homer would be the only run scored by the Dodgers that day in what turned into a 11-1 loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates. Brown would play for the Phillies and Cubs in addition to the Dodgers over his 10-year career, hitting 31 home runs in that time.

2000- Tiger Woods wins the 82nd PGA Championship, hosted by Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, Kentucky. Woods took control of the tournament from Day 1, shooting 6-under par in Round 1 to jump into a tie for first with Scott Dunlap before taking a one-stroke lead into Sunday. Woods would 5-under par in the final round to win by five strokes, becoming the first golfer since Ben Hogan to win three majors in a calendar year.

2016- British distance runner Mo Farah wins the Olympic gold medal in the 5,000 meters, completing the event in 13 minutes and 3 seconds. Farah also won the 10,000 meters earlier in the week, marking the second Olympic games in a row in which he won both events. Farah’s dominance on the track stretched several years after the 2016 Rio Olympics, with Farah going undefeated in the 10,000 meter run from 2011-2021.

Andrew Luck- Stanford

Robert Griffin III- Baylor

Ryan Tannehill- Texas A&M

Brandon Weeden- Oklahoma State

Brock Osweiler- Arizona State