In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the NCAA, NHL, and MLB, with our model focusing in on three of those predictions in our Featured Matchups. Those predictions went 3-0 overall, and you can see how each of the models performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 14-6

Over/Under Predictions: 10-8-2

Spread Predictions: 11-9

Featured Matchup: 1-0

Money Line Predictions: 9-6

Over/Under Predictions: 6-6-3

Puck Line Predictions: 8-7

Featured Matchup: 1-0

Money Line Predictions: 1-0

Over/Under Predictions: 1-0

Run Line Predictions: 0-1

Featured Matchup: 1-0

There are 11 NFL games scheduled to take place today, and our model has predictions for all 11 matchups. You can see all of our model’s predictions below.

Green Bay Packers @ Denver Broncos

Model Predicts- Packers ML, OVER 45, Packers -1

The Green bay Packers will travel to the Mile High City to take on the Broncos on Sunday afternoon.

Green Bay enters this week fresh off a bye, with the Packers’ last game being a loss to the Raiders on October 9th. Denver also enters this game on extended rest, most recently suffering a 19-8 loss at the hands of the Kansas City Chiefs.

Neither one of these teams has played good football, but our model gives the Packers a sizable advantage here. Let’s take a look at why that is and see our model’s best bet for today’s matchup.

Green Bay Packers

• Dealing with injuries on defense

  • Jaire Alexander, Quay Walker, and Darnell Savage all questionable, but returned to practice in some capacity this week

• Great spot for Jordan Love

  • Coming off 3 INT game against Las Vegas, low completion rate (55.6%)

  • But, ranks 1st in air yards this season. Great news against Broncos

  • Offense has deep threat everywhere- Christian Watson (23.6 yards per reception), Jayden Reed (16.2 yards per reception), Dontayvion Wicks (13.6 yards per reception)

  • Chance Aaron Jones returns to lineup as well

Denver Broncos

• Still in midst of historically bad defensive season

  • 32nd in EPA/play, can’t defend the pass

    • surrendering 268 pass yards per game

  • Allowed just 19 points in last outing, but surrendered nearly 400 yards of offense

  • Allow 6.7 yards per play, most in NFL

• Drama all over the franchise

  • Sean Payton criticizing Russell Wilson, Jerry Jeudy blaming coaching staff, Wilson, and offensive line for struggles

What’s the Play?

On paper this is an ugly game. However, Denver is a franchise that is in shambles, and we think that opens up the door for Green Bay to get back to .500 today.

Green bay has done two things well this season- throw the ball down field and score in the second half. The Packers lead the NFL in second half points per game with 17.6, but rank 31st in 1st half points per game (5.1), but the utilization of the deep ball against a weak pass defense should allow the Packers to get on the board early and often.

The Packers’ losses have been from growing pains with a new QB and system, while Denver’s are due to being a dysfunctional franchise that doesn’t appear it wants to win. We’ll take the Packers on the money line in this spot.

The Play: Packers ML (-120)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers- 3-2 overall this season, 1-0 against division opponents (Play NFC South rival Atlanta today)

• Baltimore Ravens- 4-2 overall this season, 1-1 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• New England Patriots- Under is 5-1 this season, 2-0 against division opponents (Play AFC East rival Buffalo today)

• Chicago Bears- Over is 5-1 this season with average total of 50.67

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Los Angeles Rams- 4-1-1 against the spread (ATS) this season, 2-1 ATS as the home team

• Miami Dolphins- 5-1 ATS this season, 1-1 ATS as an underdog

For additional Week 3 NFL bets, check out our analysis with the host of Scalies Media on Youtube.

They also have a newsletter that dives into their best bets for the NFL and NCAA every weekend. You can sign up by clicking below⬇️

💪 Cardinals activate Budda baker from IR. Arizona Cardinals safety Budda Baker is set to make his return to the field on Sunday against the Seattle Seahawks after being activated from injured reserve. Baker had been sidelined due to a hamstring injury he sustained in Week 2, marking his first-ever stint on injured reserve. Despite his questionable status on the Friday injury report, the Cardinals have confidence in his readiness to bolster the team's defense as the Cardinals head into a crucial NFC West matchup.

⏰ It’s Brian Hoyer time in Las Vegas. Veteran quarterback Brian Hoyer is set to start for the Las Vegas Raiders against the Chicago Bears today, as reported by NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport. This decision comes in the context of injuries affecting both teams' quarterbacks, with Justin Fields and Jimmy Garoppolo sidelined. The 38-year-old, who recently played a pivotal role in the Raiders' Week 6 victory over the Patriots, will take the helm as Vegas aims to stay competitive in the AFC playoff race.

After 15 games yesterday, the NHL has given us just two games to look at on Sunday. Our model’s predictions for both matchups are below.

There is no Featured Matchup today in the NHL, as our model doesn’t show a significant advantage in any of its predictions.

Money Line Trends 💰

• Boston Bruins- 4-0-0 overall this season, 2-0-0 as the away team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• No over/under trends that back model predictions

Puck Line Trends ➕➖

• Detroit Red Wings- Puck line is perfect 5-0 this season

🤕 McDavid injured in overtime loss to Winnipeg. Edmonton Oilers' standout player Connor McDavid sustained an injury during a 3-2 overtime defeat to the Winnipeg Jets. McDavid's last appearance in the game occurred with just over four minutes left in the third period, during which he appeared to clutch his side during a rush. The injury left the Oilers without their NHL MVP, and Jets center Mark Scheifele capitalized with an overtime goal, cratering Edmonton’s record to 1-3-1.

📝 Vegas makes early-season history. The Vegas Golden Knights secured a 5-3 victory over the Chicago Blackhawks in a Saturday evening game at the United Center. The game began with a power-play goal by the Chicago Blackhawks' Connor Bedard, but the Golden Knights responded three minutes later with their own power-play goal from William Karlsson. Throughout the match, Vegas pulled ahead with goals from Jonathan Marchessault and Nicolas Roy, eventually winning 5-3 and becoming the first defending Stanley Cup champions to start a season 6-0.

Only one MLB game is scheduled to take place on Sunday, with that matchup featuring the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros. Our model’s predictions for both matchups can be found below.

Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros

Model Predicts- Rangers ML, UNDER 8.5, Rangers +1.5

The Texas Rangers and Houston Astros will take the ALCS back to Houston for a pivotal Game 6 on Sunday

Texas began the series with two wins on the road at Houston, but has since fallen apart. The Rangers now find themselves down 3-2 in the series and face elimination in this game.

Our model has predicted the road team to win every matchup in this series, and that is not changing today as it expects the Rangers to even the series. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Texas Rangers

• Offensive output has cratered in ALCS

  • Own 82 wRC+, .230 BABIP, and .678 OPS in five games, per FanGraphs

  • Batting just .217 as a team

• Pitching has been horrific over last three games

  • 7.67 ERA and 6.07 FIP

  • 40.4% ground ball rate shows Houston is sizing the group up

• Starting pitcher- Nathan Eovaldi

  • 2.29 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in postseason

  • Has had mixed results against Astros this season- 4.47 ERA in 14.1 innings

  • Vulnerable to hard contact, but keeps ball on ground (51.5% ground ball rate)

Houston Astros

• Have seen dramatic shift in offensive output

  • Games 1 and 2- 52 wRC+, .178 BABIP

  • Games 3 to 5- 141 wRC+, .306 BABIP, and incredible 15.7% strikeout rate

• Bullpen has played key role, but may be over-performing

  • 1.23 ERA in series, but 3.21 FIP and 4.05 xFIP

  • Still far better than Texas’- 5.56 ERA and 6.21 FIP

• Starting pitcher- Framber Valdez

  • 11.57 ERA and 2.57 WHIP in postseason

  • Lit up by Texas last time out- 7 hits, 5 runs in 2.2 innings

  • Has issues with hard contact- ranks in bottom 6% of MLB in hard hit rate and average exit velocity allowed

What’s the Play?

The Houston Astros are scorching hot right now, but we agree with our model that backing the Rangers in this spot is a solid play.

Texas has been terrific on the road in the postseason, going a perfect 6-0 and posting a +17 run differential. Additionally, Framber Valdez doesn’t pose a threat on the mound, as he has yet to find his footing in the postseason and has been clobbered in just 7.0 postseason innings.

Surprisingly, Houston was really bad at home this season, going 39-42 compared to the Astros road record of 51-30. This is a great spot for Texas to even the series and force Game 7.

The Play: Rangers ML (+100)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Texas Rangers- 6-0 overall on the road in postseason

• Houston Astros- 39-42 at home in regular season, 1-3 at home in postseason

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Texas Rangers- Over is 4-4-2 in postseason, 44-39-4 as the away team (including playoffs)

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Texas Rangers- Run line is 7-3 overall in postseason

💪 Zack Wheeler, Phillies take 3-2 series lead back to Philadelphia. Led by Zack Wheeler's dominant pitching, the Phillies defeated the Arizona Diamondbacks 6-1, taking a 3-2 series lead in the NLCS. Wheeler strung together yet another fantastic outing, going 7.0 innings and allowing just one run and striking out eight, while home runs from Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, and J.T. Realmuto sealed the deal. Now, the Phillies are on the brink of a return to the World Series, with their swagger fully restored and the next games scheduled at their undefeated home ground in Philadelphia.

😬 Bryan Abreu handed two-game suspension. Houston Astros pitcher Bryan Abreu has been handed a two-game suspension and an undisclosed fine for “intentionally” hitting Texas Rangers outfielder Adolis García with a pitch. The incident, which took place during Game 5 of the ALCS, led to both benches clearing as tempers flared. Abreu expressed that he intended to throw a pitch up and in but missed, while García had previously hit a three-run homer and reacted to being hit by the pitch, causing the confrontation that resulted in ejections.