In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the NCAA and MLB, with our model focusing in on two of those predictions in our Featured Matchups. Those predictions went 2-0 overall, and you can see how each of the models performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 13-3

Over/Under Predictions: 9-7

Spread Predictions: 8-8

Featured Matchup: 1-0

Money Line Predictions: 7-7

Over/Under Predictions: 8-5-1

Run Line Predictions: 10-4

Featured Matchup: 1-0

There are 13 NFL games scheduled to take place throughout this afternoon and evening, and our model has predictions for all 13 matchups. You can see all model predictions below.

Chicago Bears @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Model Predicts- Buccaneers ML, OVER 41, Bears +3

The Chicago Bears will take their talents south to Tampa Bay to take on the Buccaneers in Week 2.

Chicago is a team that many expect to push for a playoff spot, but the Bears came up short in Week 1 to Jordan Love and the Packers. Meanwhile, Baker Mayfield led the Bucs to a three-point victory over the Vikings in Week 1.

Our model gives the Buccaneers a slight edge in today’s matchup, but it is also predicting that Chicago will cover the short three-point spread. Let’s dive into why that is and see our model’s best bet for this matchup.

Chicago Bears

• Poor showing from defense in Week 1

  • Secondary was shredded- allowed 15.8 yards per completion and 9.1 yards per attempt

  • Ranked 23rd in pass rush win rate. Only recorded 1 sack

  • However, held Packers to 2.9 yards per carry and ranked 9th in run stop win rate

• Balanced offensive attack

  • 2022- 32.8 rush attempts per game to 22.2 pass attempts

  • 2023- 29 rush attempts per game to 37 pass attempts (game script led to more passes, but showed more willingness to throw)

  • Fields completed 64.8% of passes, up from 59% last season

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Defense looked vulnerable in Week 1

  • Allowed 5.9 yards per play- third most in Week 1

  • Secondary was shredded- 328 pass yards allowed

  • Forced 3 turnovers- 2 fumbles and 1 interception, but only led to 3 points

• Offense was not great either

  • 242 total yards, only 3.9 yards per play

  • 2.2 yards per rush attempt, 5.1 per pass attempt

  • Offensive line struggles- finished week ranked 21st in pass block win rate and 29th in run block win rate

What’s the Play?

Not only did the Chicago Bears lose, they got blown out by 18 at home against a division rival. That likely brings the market’s confidence in the Bears down a tad, but we think this is a good spot to back them on the spread.

Baker Mayfield still doesn’t make an offense better. In fact, he likely limits it more than he helps it, which we saw in Week 1 when the Bucs struggled to move the ball down the field.

Additionally, Mayfield struggles when he is favored, going 0-8 against the spread and 2-6 straight up the last 8 times his team was favored to win.

Chicago has the Kansas City Chiefs on the schedule next week, a game where they are already 11.5-point underdogs. They need this win otherwise they likely begin the season 0-3, so we’ll back Justin Fields and Co. to put things together and cover the spread as an underdog.

The Play: Bears +3 (-120)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Los Angeles Chargers- 0-1 overall this season, 5-1 as road favorite in 2022

• Washington Commanders- 1-0 overall this season, 4-3-1 as the away team in 2022

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Detroit Lions- Over is 0-1 this season, 10-7 in 2022

• Tennessee Titans- Under is 1-0 this season, 12-5 in 2022

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Baker Mayfield is 0-8 against the spread (ATS) in last 8 starts as a favorite

• New England Patriots- 2-0 ATS at home against Miami in Mac Jones era

For additional Week 2 NFL bets, check out our analysis with the host of Chuck’s Chat on Youtube.

They also have a newsletter that dives into their best bets for the NFL and NCAA every weekend. You can sign up by clicking below ⬇️

🤕 Amari Cooper questionable for Week 2. Cleveland Browns wide receiver Amari Cooper aggravated his groin during Saturday's practice, leaving his status as questionable for Monday Night Football. Browns coach Kevin Stefanski revealed that the injury occurred late in Saturday's session, requiring Cooper to seek treatment with the training staff before practice concluded. Stefanski stated they will monitor Cooper's condition over the next 48 hours, but his absence would be a big blow to a Browns team that is looking to improve to 2-0.

💪 Jerry Jeudy is back in action. The Denver Broncos are eagerly anticipating the return of wide receiver Jerry Jeudy, who missed the season opener due to a hamstring injury sustained in August. Jeudy has practiced fully all week and is set to play against the Washington Commanders on Sunday, providing a nice boost to a struggling offense. Quarterback Russell Wilson averaged just 6.6 yards per completion in that game, and the team aims to capitalize on Jeudy's explosiveness to attack downfield in Week 2.

👎 Austin Ekeler sidelined for Week 2. The Los Angeles Chargers will be without star running back Austin Ekeler for their upcoming game as he has been ruled out due to an ankle injury sustained in the previous week. Ekeler, who led the NFL in touchdowns last season, did not participate in practice throughout the week, signaling his unavailability for the weekend. Joshua Kelley, who averaged 4.16 yards per carry last season is set to step into the lead role in Ekeler's absence.

There are 15 MLB games scheduled to take place throughout this afternoon and evening. However, due to lines being unavailable at the time the model was run ,our model has predictions for 13 of today’s matchups.

Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Model Predicts- Cubs ML, Under 9, Cubs -1.5

The Chicago Cubs and Arizona Diamondbacks will finish their three game series on Sunday Night Baseball.

Arizona has remained in firm control of the series, taking the first two games. That has been a familiar sight over the last few weeks, as the Dbacks are now 5-1 against the Cubs since September 7th.

Yet, our model gives the Cubs an edge in tonight’s matchup and expects Chicago to avoid the sweep. Let’s dive into why that is and see our model’s best bet for this matchup.

Chicago Cubs

• 0-4 in last 4 games. Now own just 0.5-game lead over Arizona and Cincinnati in wild card race

• Despite losses, offensive numbers haven’t been bad

  • Rank 13th in wRC+ (104), 10th in BABIP (.316), and 12th in OPS (.742) during losing streak

  • Seeing ball well- own 9.9% walk rate and 19.6% strikeout rate in that time

  • Averaging 4.25 runs per game over that stretch

• Pitching has been sub-par during losing streak

  • 7th worst ERA (5.15) and 5th worst FIP in MLB in last four games (FanGraphs)

• Get relief on mound today with Jordan Wicks (3-0 record, 1.99 ERA)

  • Low strikeout rate 16.9%, but owns 30.4% Hard Hit rate, 1.4% Barrel rate, 5.6% walk rate, and 52.2% ground ball rate

  • Hard to size up

Arizona Diamondbacks

• Have found life at end of season

  • 9-7 since September 1st, 16-11 since August 19th

• However, offense has been far from great in that time

  • Rank 21st in wRC+ (90), 15th in BABIP (.295), and 23rd in OPS (.701) in last 27 games

• Offense has gotten worse in last 7 games

  • 73 wRC+, .277 BABIP, and .624 OPS in that time

• Ryne Nelson (7-8 record, 5.53 ERA) will get start on mound

  • Owns 10.69 ERA and 1.94 WHIP in last four starts

  • Surrendering 2.81 home runs per nine innings in that time

  • Pitches to contact- ranks in bottom 8% of MLB in strikeout rate and whiff rate

What’s the Play?

Chicago has not played their best baseball as of late, especially against this Diamondbacks team. However, we agree with our model that the Cubs can reverse that trend tonight.

The Cubs offense has showed up, but it’s asking a lot for the team to score upwards of 7 runs every night in order to win a game. That number can be easily reached today with Nelson on the mound though, and Wicks provides Chicago with much more stability than they’ve had in recent games.

Our model think the Cubs should be nearly -180 favorites, so we’ll take them at -120.

The Play: Cubs ML (-120)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Tampa Bay Rays- 92-58 overall this season, 26-17 against division opponents (Play AL East rival Baltimore today)

• Atlanta Braves- 96-52 overall this season, 49-27 as the away team

• Cincinnati Reds- 78-72 overall this season, 42-33 as the away team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Baltimore Orioles- Over is 76-61-11 this season, 26-20-1 against division opponents

• Toronto Blue Jays- Under is 78-63-8 this season, 40-29-5 as the home team

• Los Angeles Angels- Over is 75-65-9 this season, 2-0 in series with Detroit

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Cincinnati Reds- Run line is 92-58 this season, 44-21 as a road underdog

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com.

💥 Matt Olson breaks Andruw Jones’ record. Georgia native Matt Olson fulfilled a childhood dream by breaking the Atlanta Braves' single-season home run record during his second season with the team. Olson's 52nd homer of the year pushed him past Andruw Jones' record and marked a significant achievement for the Braves, who have been setting franchise records for team homers throughout the season. Olson's accomplishment holds special meaning for him as a lifelong Braves fan, and he is now part of a group of five Braves players with 30 or more homers this season.

🤕 Shohei Ohtani done for season. Los Angeles Angels superstar Shohei Ohtani's season has come to an end due to an oblique injury. This injury, along with a torn elbow ligament, prematurely concluded what was a historic season for Ohtani, known for his two-way prowess. The 29-year-old achieved career-best statistics, leading the American League (AL) in home runs (44) and displaying remarkable versatility on the mound with his 3.14 ERA.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Sean McVay is the youngest coach to win thee Super Bowl. Which current coach held the title of “Youngest Super Bowl Winner” before McVay?

Question #2- The MLB expanded to 30 teams in 1998, adding which two teams to the league?

Question #3- 44 running backs have won the Heisman Trophy during its history, with the two most recent backs to win the award both attending the University of Alabama. Who are those two players?

Anyone know what has happened on September 17th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On September 17th…

1968- San Francisco Giants pitcher Gaylord Perry throws a no-hitter in a 1-0 win over the St. Louis Cardinals. The win was Perry’s 15th of the season, a performance in which he would strikeout nine hitters and only walk two. It would be the only no-hitter of Perry’s career, one that saw the Hall of Famer post a 3.11 ERA and 3,534 strikeouts.

2000- Former NFL quarterback Dan Marino has his #13 jersey retired by the Miami Dolphins. Marino played his entire pro career with the Dolphins, winning one MVP and becoming a nine-time Pro Bowl selection. He is still part of the Dolphins organization today and has been since 2014, with his role being a special advisor to the team

2004- MLB legend Barry Bonds hits his 700th career home run. The homer came against Padres pitcher Jake Peavy, and it put Bonds in an exclusive club as he became just the third player ever to reach the milestone. Bonds would end his career with 762 dingers, the most in MLB history.

1. Mike Tomlin

2. Arizona Diamondbacks, Tampa Bay Rays

3. Mark Ingram, Derrick Henry