In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions and making it a 3-star play. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 9-5

Over/Under Predictions: 7-7

Run Line Predictions: 7-7

3-star Predictions: 1-0

✍️ Gregg Popovich signs new 5-year deal with San Antonio. Long-time San Antonio Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich isn’t going anywhere anytime soon, signing a new 5-year deal with the franchise that is reportedly worth over $80 million, per Adrian Wojnarowski. His most recent contract ended following the conclusion of the 2022 season, but the Spurs drafting Victor Wembanyama likely played a role in the Hall of Famer’s extension. Pop has been at the helm in San Antonio for 27 years, recording an NBA-record 1,366 victories in that time, and at the age of 74 is the oldest head coach in league history.

📆 NBA releases details of new in-season tournament. An in-season tournament has been rumored for the last several seasons, but it appears that the rumors will become reality with the creation of the NBA Cup. Each conference will be broken up into three groups, with each group winner advancing to the quarterfinals along with the best two second place teams. Games will start on November 3rd and end with the championship in Las Vegas on December 9th, with teams competing for a prize pool of roughly $18 million.

👀 John Wall to workout for several teams in Vegas on Sunday. Free-agent point guard John Wall will reportedly work out for teams in Las Vegas on Sunday, per Chris Haynes. Joining the five-time All-Star with work outs are Dion Waiters and Harry Giles III, although it appears that the work outs will all be separate. Wall most recently played for the Los Angeles Clippers last season, averaging 11.4 points, 2.7 rebounds, and 5.2 assists across 34 games before being traded to, and waived by, the Houston Rockets at the trade deadline.

There are 14 MLB games scheduled to take place this afternoon, which is also the last day of baseball before the All-Star break begins. However, due to gaps in the season data and lines being unavailable at the time the model was run, our model has predictions for 11 of today’s matchups.

Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros

Model Predicts- Mariners ML, OVER 8, Astros +1.5

The Seattle Mariners and Houston Astros will close out a four-game series on Sunday afternoon, the final game for both teams before the 2023 All-Star break.

Seattle lost yesterday’s matchups by a score of 3-2, but has otherwise dominated its AL West rival in the series. The Mariners won Games 1 and 2, posting a +13 run differential and holding the Astros to just one run in each matchup.

Records state that Houston is the better team, but our model projects Seattle to win today’s matchup because of its advantage on the mound. Will we see that prediction become a reality, or will we see the Astros put together a strong effort going into the break?

Seattle Mariners

The Seattle Mariners looked awful at the end of June, stumbling to a 1-5 record in the final six games of last month and falling to 38-42 on the season.

However, Seattle has completely changed the narrative since the calendar flipped to July, going 6-2 since July 1st in what was been a much needed stretch of victories in order to get back to the .500 mark.

The key to the turnaround has been Seattle’s hitting attack. Per Fangraphs, the Mariners owned a 85 wRC+ during their 1-5 stretch at the end of June, but that has risen to 134 since July 1st, the third best mark in the majors in that time.

Despite a high 26.6% strikeout rate this month, the Mariners are finding ways to get on base and bring runners around to score. A 9.1% walk rate has helped combat that number, and a .364 BABIP in July (batting average on balls in play) further proves that Seattle is capable of finding holes in the opposing defense.

Seattle’s pitching staff has also been terrific this month, posting a 1.93 ERA. Logan Gilbert (6-5 record, 3.82 ERA), who owns a 3.40 xERA and 1.02 WHIP, will get the start today and look to keep that stellar number in tact..

Houston Astros

Brandon Bielak (4-4 record, 3.81 ERA) will get the start on the mound today for Houston. His surface level numbers don’t raise many red flags, but once you dive a little deeper it becomes clear why our model is leaning towards Seattle in this one.

The most eyebrow-raising stat of Bielak’s happens to be his xERA, which comes in at 6.12 according to Baseball Savant. That is more than two runs higher than his season 3.81 season ERA, and it is up from 4.25 a season ago.

Why is the variance between Bielak’s ERA and xERA so high? Well, a large part of the reason is because of his inability to keep baseball’s off of opposing hitter’s barrels. His 12.9% Barrel rate in 2023 ranks in the bottom 5% of the majors, and that has coincided with a 49.4% Hard Hit rate, up from 40.0% in 2022.

Even though contact is often made, Bielak isn’t a super predictable pitcher on the mound, which works in his favor. The distribution between his changeup, 4-seamer, and sinker is relatively even, with each pitch being thrown at least 24% of the time, which can keep opposing hitters guessing. However, each pitch has an xBA of .277 or greater, meaning we should expect a fair amount of hits this afternoon.

What’s the Play?

Despite Houston owning a five-game lead over Seattle in the AL West standings, there isn’t much that separates these teams on any given day. However, today’s battle on the mound clearly leans in Seattle’s favor, and as a result we are comfortable with making the model’s prediction of Mariners money line a 3-star play.

Both of today’s starters are coming off shutout performances, so it is tough to say which guy has more momentum. However, Gilbert owns a strikeout rate that is more than 7% higher than Bielak’s and a walk rate that is almost 5% better. He is the much more consistent pitcher and does a far better job at keeping the opposing team off the base paths, which can be seen by his 1.02 WHIP compared to Bielak’s 1.51.

Bielak’s xERA indicates he is due for some massive regression, and we think it likely comes today against one of the hottest offense’s in the majors. Our model thinks the Mariners should be favorites at -140, so we’ll grab them at -130.

3-star play: Mariners ML (-130)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Miami Marlins- 52-39 overall this season, 29-18 as the home team

• Tampa Bay Rays- 57-35 overall this season, 34-15 as the home team

• Seattle Mariners- 44-44 overall this season, 6-2 since July 1st

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Kansas City Royals- Under is 46-42-2 this season, 26-19-1 as the away team

• Cleveland Guardians- Under is 51-35-3 this season, 29-15-1 as the home team

• San Francisco Giants- Over is 13-11 against division opponents this season (Play NL West rival Colorado this afternoon)

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Texas Rangers- Run line is 53-37 overall this season, 32-27 when favored to win

• Cleveland Guardians- Run line is 3-0 in current series with Kansas City Royals

Various injuries around the league. See full in jury report at MLB.com.

🐯 Tigers throw combined no-hitter in victory over Toronto. Matt Manning, Jason Foley, and Alex Lange combined to throw a no-hitter in Detroit’s 2-0 victory over the Toronto Blue Jays on Saturday afternoon. The performance was the ninth no-hitter in Tigers history and the first since Spencer Turnbull’s in 2021. Manning struck out five batters and walked three in 6.2 innings in his third start since returning from the injured list, with Foley and Lange combining for two strikeouts in the final 2.1 innings.

🤕 Drew Rasmussen to have season-ending surgery. Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Drew Rasmussen has not pitched since May 11th, and it appears that he will ride the pine for the significant future. It was thought the right-hander could return to the mound next month, but according to Marc Topkin, Rasmussen will instead undergo surgery that will install a small brace in his elbow. The surgery will keep the 27-year-old sidelined until the middle of 2024, putting a damper on a season where Rasmussen posted a 2.62 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 44.2 innings.

⚡️ Elly De La Cruz continues to find ways to steal the spotlight. Cincinnati Reds shortstop Elly De La Cruz has done nothing but provide entertainment to MLB fans everywhere since making his debut on June 6th. The 21-year-old continued to do just that on Saturday against the Milwaukee Brewers, stealing second, third, and home in the seventh inning against Cincinnati’s NL Central rival. De La Cruz became the 15th player to steal second, third, and home in one inning, and to make things even more impressive he is the only player in the last 50 years to steal all three bases with the same batter at the plate. Cincinnati is now 22-6 since bringing De La Cruz up from the minors, with the rookie posting a .328 batting average, .899 OPS, and 13 stolen bases in that time.

⛳️ Brendon Todd takes lead at John Deere Classic. The No.78 golfer in the world, Brendon Todd, shot a 5-under par round 66 in Round 3 of the John Deere Classic on Saturday, giving the 37-year-old a one stroke lead over the rest of the field. Giving chase to Todd is Denny McCarthy (-15), Adam Schenk (-15), and Alex Smalley (-15), all of whom shot 4-under par or better on Saturday. Smalley had the lowest score the of the day (-9), while Cameron Young, who entered the weekend as the tournament leader, shot an even par 71 round and sits tied for sixth at 13-under par.

🥊 Robbie Lawler knocks out Niko Price in retirement bout. Robbie Lawler was set to retire following Saturday night’s fight against Niko Price at UFC 290, and he surely went out with a bang. Lawler KO’d Price in just 38 seconds, hitting Price several times before sending him to the ground with an uppercut. The victory was the first for Lawler since he defeated Nick Diaz in 2021, and it was just his second victory in the last five years. Lawler began his MMA career in 2001, retiring with a 30-16-1 record.

👨‍⚖️ Bob Huggins threatens to sue West Virginia over resignation. Long-time West Virginia Men’s Basketball head coach Bob Huggins was in the headlines several times earlier this summer following remarks he made on a radio show and a DUI charge, culminating in his resignation from the program. Well, Huggins in back in the headlines again, saying that he never signed a resignation letter and never communicated with anyone at West Virginia about a resignation. Huggins has threatened a lawsuit against the university if he is not immediately reinstated, further complicating an already messy situation in Morgantown.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Eight quarterbacks in NFL history have thrown for at least 5,000 yards in a season, making it one of the rarest accomplishments. Drew Brees is one of the eight guys on the list, and he has surpassed the 5,000 yard mark more than any other quarterback. How many times did Drew Brees throw for 5,000 yards in a season?

Question #2- Manute Bol and Gheorghe Muresan share the title of “tallest player in NBA history”, both standing at 7-foot-7-inches. On the opposite end of the spectrum is a player who was just 5-foot-3-inches tall. Who was that player?

Question #3- St. Louis Cardinals legend Rogers Hornsby owns a .358 career batting average, the second-best average all-time. Who is the lone player above Hornsby on the list?

Anyone know what has happened on July 9th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On July 9th…

1933- The Frankford Yellow Jackets, a Philadelphia-based NFL team, is sold to Bert Bell and Lud Wray. The Yellow Jackets were part of the NFL from 1924-1931, but the organization’s origins date back to 1899 with the Frankford Athletic Association. The team won the NFL Championship in 1926, but would completely collapse during the 1931 season, a year in which the Yellow Jackets were shut out in all but one game. As a result, the Yellow Jackets would suspend operations, and the assets of the franchise were purchased by Bell and Wray, who then created the Philadelphia Eagles.

1968- Wilt Chamberlain becomes the first reigning NBA MVP to be traded the next season, going from the Philadelphia 76ers to the Los Angeles Lakers. Chamberlain averaged 24.3 points and 23.8 rebounds per game during his MVP campaign, but things began to fall apart following a 4-3 series loss to the Celtics in the postseason, a series in which Philadelphia was up 3-1. The turmoil between Chamberlain, who threatened to leave the NBA for the ABA, and 76ers ownership ultimately boiled over, which sent Chamberlain to the West Coast to join Jerry West and the Los Angeles Lakers.

2009- Hockey legend Joe Sakic retires after playing 21 seasons in the NHL. Sakic was selected 15th overall in the 1987 NHL Draft by the Quebec Nordiques, the team that would later become known as the Colorado Avalanche. Sakic would set several franchise records during his 21-year career, which include being the Avalanche franchsie leader in goals, assists, points, and games played. He would end his playing career with two Stanley Cups and 1,641 career points, putting him ninth on the NHL’s all-time list.

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1. 5

2. Tyrone “Muggsy” Bogues

3. Ty Cobb