In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the NBA, NHL, and MLB, with our model focusing in on two of those predictions and making them 3-star plays. Those predictions went 1-1 overall, and you can see how each of the models performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 1-0

Over/Under Predictions: 1-0

Spread Predictions: 1-0

3-star Predictions: 1-0

Money Line Predictions: 1-2

Over/Under Predictions: 3-0

Puck Line Predictions: 2-1

3-star Predictions: 0-0

Money Line Predictions: 7-2

Over/Under Predictions: 4-4-1

Run Line Predictions: 5-4

3-star Predictions: 0-1

Today we have two NBA games scheduled to take place. The Miami Heat will go up against the New York Knicks in what is the first game of the Eastern Conference semifinals, and the Golden State Warriors will travel to Sacramento to take on the Kings in a Game 7 matchup.

Golden State Warriors @ Sacramento Kings

Model Predicts- Kings ML, OVER 229, Kings -1.5

The Golden State Warriors and Sacramento Kings will face off for the final time this season in a Game 7 matchup in Sacramento.

Golden State owned a 3-2 series lead entering Game 6, but fell short of the mark against Sacramento in that matchup, losing 118-99 at home.

Sacramento came out of the gates hot to start the series, but cooled off before winning Game 6. The Kings are 2-1 at home in this series, and Golden State is known to struggle on the road. Will that be the difference maker in this matchup as the Kings look to advance to Round 2 in front of their home crowd, or will the defending NBA Champs step up to the plate and win the series?

Golden State Warriors

Last season’s NBA Champions are looking to make yet another NBA Finals appearance, further establishing the Golden State Warriors as a dynasty.

However, this is not the same Warriors team that we are used to seeing, especially on the defensive end of the floor.

Golden State’s kryptonite has been playing defense. During the 2021-22 regular season the Warriors owned a 106.6 Defensive Rating, the second best in the NBA. Things changed dramatically during the 2022-23 season, an 82 game span where we saw that rating rise to 113.4.

Defense appears to have taken a backseat for this aging Warriors squad, and it has tanked their chances of winning games on the road. Golden State owned an 11-30 road record during the 2022-23 regular season, a result of posting the third worst Defensive Rating the NBA (118.3).

The low defensive production on the road has followed Golden State into the postseason, where they are 1-2 overall and have surrendered an average of 118.2 points per game.

Sacramento Kings

Regardless of today’s outcome, the 2022-23 season will go down as a success for Sacramento. Prior to this season the Kings have not made the playoffs since 2006, giving fans and the organization some hope that its young core can make a run for several years to come.

Sacramento’s resurgence to NBA relevance started on the offensive end of the floor. During the 82 game regular season the Kings posted a 118.6 Offensive Rating, the best rating in the NBA. It was a 9.0-point improvement from Sacramento’s season rating a season ago, which ranked 24th in the league.

That spike can be attributed to several things, but the biggest reason is because of Sacramento’s improvement from behind the arc. The offseason acquisitions of Kevin Huerter and Malik Monk, along with drafting Keegan Murray out of Iowa in the 2022 draft, improved Sacramento’s three-point shooting by 2.4% this season, per NBA.com. Huerter and Murray shot above 40% from deep in the regular season while Monk shot 36%.

Just like Golden State though, defense hasn’t always been a priority for the Kings. Sacramento ranked 24th in Defensive Rating during the regular season (116.1), but has improved that rating to 109.7 in the postseason.

What’s the Play?

Home court advantage has proven to be the largest factor in this series. Both Golden State and Sacramento are 2-1 while at home, and given that this game is being played in Sacramento we agree with the model on its prediction of Kings -1.

The road struggles for the Warriors are simply too much to ignore, and the fact that it has carried over into the postseason is a concern. Normally the Warriors make up for the lack of defensive production with its tremendous three-point shooting, but in games played in Sacramento this series the Warriors are shooing just 31.3% from behind the arc.

Sacramento’s offense hasn’t slowed down much while playing at home in this series, and given that it has made significant improvements on defense we think the Kings can take this one. Sacramento is younger, faster, and at this point has much better depth, so we would play this spread up to the model’s threshold of 3.5 points.

3-star play: Kings -1 (-110)

Miami Heat @ New York Knicks

• Miami Heat

  • 4-1 overall in the postseason, 2-1 on the road

  • 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in five postseason games

• New York Knicks

  • 4-1 in the postseason, 2-0 at home

  • Point differential of +29 at Madison Square Garden in postseason

• Over/Under

  • Over is 5-0 for Heat in postseason, but 0-5 for the Knicks

Golden State Warriors @ Sacramento Kings

• Golden State Warriors

  • 1-2 as away team this postseason

  • 2-4 ATS in six postseason games

• Sacramento Kings

  • 2-1 as home team this postseason, point differential of +4 across those three games

  • 4-2 ATS in postseason

• Over/Under

  • Over is 3-3 in the series

  • Average point total is 231.17 in those six games

  • Average point total in games played in Sacramento is 236.0

Miami Heat @ New York Knicks

• Miami Heat

  • Victor Oladipo (OUT), Tyler Herro (OUT), Bam Adebayo (Game Time Decision)

• New York Knicks

  • Julius Randle (Game Time Decision), Quentin Grimes (Game Time Decision), Jericho Sims (OUT)

Golden State Warriors @ Sacramento Kings

• Golden State Warriors

  • Andre Iguodala (OUT), Patrick Baldwin (OUT), Ryan Rollins (OUT)

• Sacramento Kings

  • Matthew Dellavedova (OUT)

🤕 Joel Embiid likely out for Game 1 in Boston. 76ers star and MVP candidate Joel Embiid will likely miss Game 1 of Philly’s series against Boston on Monday night. Embiid suffered a sprained LCL in Game 3 against Brooklyn and has not participated in basketball activities since, although there is a possibility he plays with a brace. This is the second year in a row that Embiid suffered an injury in the playoffs, with last season’s injuries being a torn thumb ligament, a concussion, and an orbital fracture.

💻 LeBron James heads to social media after sending the Grizzlies home. LeBron James hit Instagram and Twitter after defeating the Grizzlies by 40 in Game 6 to give the Lakers their first series win of the postseason. James tweeted some lyrics to Jay Z’s song “Trouble”, which many have speculated is in direct response to Dillon Brooks and the Grizzlies’ comments about James and the rest of the Western Conference.

👟 Nuggets take down Suns to kick off Round 2. Denver defended its home court and now owns a 1-0 series lead over Phoenix in Round 2. Phoenix cut Denver’s lead to single digits in the third quarter, but the Nuggets pulled away late on their way to a 125-107 victory. Jamal Murray led the way for Denver, scoring 34 points and shooting 54.2% from the floor in a vintage “Bubble Murray” performance.

Today we have two NHL games scheduled to take place, both of which are a Game 7. The Boston Bruins were up 3-1 in the series before losing the last two games. The defending Stanley Cup Champs, the Colorado Avalanche, are on the ropes against the NHL’s newest franchise.

There are no 3-star plays in the NHL today.

Florida Panthers @ Boston Bruins

• Florida Panthers

  • 2-0 in the last two games, scoring an average of 5.5 goals per game

  • 2-1 in series with Sergei Bobrovsky as starter

• Boston Bruins

  • 1-2 at home in the series

  • Goal differential of +127 in regular season, but -2 in series.

• Over/Under

  • Over is 4-2 in series, 2-1 in Boston

Seattle Kraken @ Colorado Avalanche

• Seattle Kraken

  • 2-1 on the road in this series

  • 2-1 against Colorado in regular season

• Colorado Avalanche

  • 1-2 in last three games, but goal differential of +1 in that time

  • Allowing just 2.7 goals per game at home in series, but scoring 2.7 goals of their own

• Over/Under

  • Under is 5-1 in the series

  • Under was 3-0 in regular season series

Florida Panthers @ Boston Bruins

• Florida Panthers

  • Ryan Lomberg (OUT)

• Boston Bruins

  • No players

Seattle Kraken @ Colorado Avalanche

• Seattle Kraken

  • Andre Burakovsky (OUT), Jared McCann (Day-to-Day)

• Colorado Avalanche

  • Andrew Cogliano (OUT), Valeri Nichushkin (OUT), John Manson (OUT)

🍁 Maple Leafs end the playoff curse. The Toronto Maple Leafs FINALLY make it out of the first round after defeating the Tampa Bay Lightning 2-1 in overtime last night. The series victory was the first for Toronto since 2004 when it lost in the conference semi-finals. It marks the end of one of the longer droughts in NHL history, putting Toronto one step closer to raising the Stanley Cup for the first time since 1967.

🤕 Andrew Cogliano out indefinitely for Colorado. Avalanche Center Andrew Cogliano will miss some time after fracturing his neck in Game 6 against Seattle. Cogliano was shoved head-first into the boards by Kraken Forward Jordan Eberle, but Eberle received just a two minute minor for boarding and no suspension. Cogliano came back into the game after a short trip to the locker room to help the Avalanche win, but Colorado will be without a key player the rest of the way.

🏙 Rangers defeat Devils to force Game 7. The New York Rangers were DOMINANT in their Game 6 win over the New Jersey Devils, forcing a Game 7 in the process. New York jumped out to an early 2-0 series lead but went on lose three consecutive games before last night’s 5-2 victory. Game 7 will take place in New Jersey on Monday, where New York is 2-1 in the series.

15 MLB games are scheduled to take place today, with our model making predictions for 12 of those matchups due to some gaps in the early season data.

Tampa Bay Rays @ Chicago White Sox

Model Predicts- Rays ML, OVER 9, Rays -1.5

The Tampa Bay Rays and Chicago White Sox will finish off a four-game series this afternoon, a series that Tampa Bay has dominated from the jump.

The Rays are a perfect 3-0 in the series against the White Sox. Tampa Bay now owns a 23-5 record, making them the best team in the MLB in the young season.

On the other hand, the White Sox have not nearly had as much success. Chicago is an abysmal 7-21 this season and is tied for last in the AL Central.

The gap in talent is rather significant in this matchup, one of the main reasons why our model identified a 3-star play. Will we see Tampa Bay continue its dominance this afternoon, or will Chicago find its way back into the win column?

Tampa Bay Rays

The Tampa Bay Rays started off the 2023 season with a bang, winning their first 13 games of the regular season. Tampa Bay has been in the loss column a handful of time since then, but for the most part this Rays team has yet to take its foot off the gas.

Per TeamRankings the Tampa Rays are the highest scoring team in the MLB with 6.64 runs per game. That is 2.57 more runs per game when compared to last season’s average of 4.07, a rather significant improvement that may lead many to assume that regression could be on its way for a team that didn’t make many significant offensive signings in the offseason.

However, it does not appear that regression is going to start today. Tampa Bay has dominated Chicago from Game 1 of this series, posting a +19 run differential through three games. What is even more impressive about that differential is the Rays were being no-hit yesterday through six innings, but managed to put 12 runs on the board in the final three frames.

Drew Rasmussen (3-2 record, 3.33 ERA) is set to get the start for Tampa Bay this afternoon. Rasmussen has had three starts this season in which he did not surrender a run, but in his two losses he allowed five earned runs in both games.

Chicago White Sox

There isn’t much to be excited about if you are a Chicago White Sox fan, and many people from the south side of the city aren’t too happy about their team’s performance through 28 games. Just ask this guy what his thoughts are.

That video was the result of some pent-up anger that was forced to be let loose after the White Sox lost their tenth straight game yesterday. In that ten game stretch the Sox are being outscored 70-25, making them owners of the second worst run differential in the MLB at -68.

Things aren’t set up to get better any time soon. Tim Anderson, Yoán Moncada, and Andrew Benintendi are dealing with varying injuries and have missed some time, hindering Chicago’s offensive output.

Additionally, Mike Clevinger (2-2 record, 4.81 ERA) will get the start this afternoon. Per Baseball Savant, Clevinger ranks in the 20th percentile or worse in Strikeout %, Walk %, and Whiff %, leading to a 1.60 WHIP this season. He lets opposing hitters put balls in play, a major concern against the league’s best offense.

What’s the Play?

There is no question that the Rays have the advantage on the mound and at the plate in this matchup. Our model likes Tampa Bay to win this game by roughly three runs, making Rays -1.5 is a 3-star play.

Clevinger has allowed 17 baserunners in his last 8.0 innings, striking out just four batters in that time. That is simply not going to cut it against Tampa Bay, a team that crushes right-handed pitchers. Per StatMuse the Rays rank first in the MLB in OPS against righties at .856, with the next closest team being the Dodgers (.797).

Even when Clevinger’s day is done, the Rays get the good fortune of hitting against a bullpen with a 6.59 ERA, the second worse in the league. Back Tampa Bay to win big again today.

3-star play: Rays -1.5 (-115)

Money Line Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates- Winners of four straight games, 11-4 on road this season

• Atlanta Braves- 11-2 as road team this season

• Houston Astros- 6-9 overall as home team, but 8-4 after a loss

Over/Under Trends

• Oakland Athletics- Over is 18-8-2 this season, highest win percentage in the MLB

• Toronto Blue Jays- Under is 8-2-1 as the home team this season, 8-0 in last eight games regardless of home/away

Run Line Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays- Run line is 19-9 overall, 8-4 as road team

• Pittsburgh Pirates- Run line is 19-9 overall, 12-3 as road team

• Houston Astros- Run line is 8-4 coming off a loss. Fade the model’s prediction of Phillies +1.5?

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com

⚾️ Giants, Padres combine for 27 runs in Mexico City. The San Diego Padres defeated the San Francisco Giants by a score of 16-11 in Mexico City, part of the MLB’s World Tour series. The stadium where the game took place, Estadio Alfredo Harp Helú, is 7,349 feet above sea level, allowing baseballs to fly out of the park at a high clip. San Diego and San Francisco combined for 11 home runs in the match, the most in any game in the 2023 season.

🤕 Jacob deGrom lands on the IL. Rangers star pitcher Jacob deGrom was placed on the 15-day injured list on Saturday with what the team is calling “elbow inflammation”. DeGrom exited in the fourth inning in Texas’ game against the Yankees on Friday, but his exit was supposedly for forearm soreness. He missed time in 2018 and 2019 with an elbow injury and received Tommy John surgery in 2010, so this is certainly not the first time deGrom has dealt with elbow problems.

❌ Lance Lynn’s no-hitter ruined in the seventh inning. Lance Lynn was pitching a gem against the MLB’s best team, the Tampa Bay Rays, before getting lit up in the seventh inning. Lynn surrendered four runs in the inning, but Tampa Bay would go on to score six additional runs once Lynn was pulled. Blowing up late in games has been a trend for the White Sox this season, as evidenced by the bullpen’s 6.59 ERA. Lynn is now 0-4 on the season with a 7.16 ERA and the White Sox own a 7-21 record.

🏈 The year of the Quarterback. There was one major focus for many NFL teams in this year’s draft, and that focus was on the quarterback position. 12 QB’s were taken in the first 5 rounds of the NFL Draft, breaking the previous record set in 1995. In total there were 14 quarterbacks drafted this year, up from 9 in 2022.

❌ D’Andre Swift out of Detroit. The Detroit Lions traded running back D’Andre Swift to the Philadelphia Eagles on Saturday for a 2023 seventh round pick and a fourth-round pick in 2025. The Lions drafted Alabama running back Jahmyr Gibbs and signed former Chicago Bears running back David Montgomery to a 3 year, $18 million contract earlier in the offseason, signs that Swift was likely on his way out the door. Swift grew up in Philadelphia and will now play a key role in the backfield for his hometown team.

🤞 Desjuan Johnson- AKA Mr. Irrelevant. The Los Angeles Rams selected Desjuan Johnson, a defensive tackle from Toledo, with the last pick of this year’s NFL Draft. Johnson played five seasons for Toledo, generating 210 tackles, 14.5 sacks, and even one interception. Last year’s Mr. Irrelevant was 49ers QB Brock Purdy, so hopes are high for Mr. Johnson.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

1. Fenway Park is one of the more iconic ballparks in Major League Baseball, with the most interesting aspect being the wall in left field known as the “Green Monster”. How tall is the Green Monster (in feet)?

2. The first Super Bowl took place in 1967. The loser of the game was the Kansas City Chiefs, but which team beat them by a score of 35-10 to be crowned the first Super Bowl Champion?

3. Kareem Abdul-Jabaar and LeBron James are widely regarded as two of the greatest basketball players ever. James recently passed Abdul-Jabaar on the all-time scoring list, and earlier this season tied him in All-Star game appearances. How many All-Star games have both players been nominated for?

4. The Olympics are a competition held every four years, an event that brings together the best athletes in the world across several sports. What are the colors of the Olympic rings?

Anyone know what has happened on April 30th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On April 30th…

1939- Lou Gehrig played in his 2,130th consecutive baseball game. It would be the last game that he played for the New York Yankees.

1961- NBA point guard Isiah Thomas is born in Chicago, Illinois. Thomas would go on to be selected No.2 overall in the 1981 NBA Draft by the Detroit Pistons, playing his entire career in the Motor City and winning two consecutive NBA Championships in 1989 and 1990.

1971- The 25th NBA Championship took place, a battle between the Milwaukee Bucks and Baltimore Bullets. Milwaukee defeated Baltimore in four games, and Lew Alcindor (Kareem Abdul-Jabaar) was named the Finals MVP.

2015- Florida State QB Jameis Winston is selected first overall by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFL Draft. Winston would go on to play five seasons with Tampa Bay and is now a member of the New Orleans Saints.

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1. 37 feet

2. Green Bay Packers

3. 19

4. Blue, Yellow, Black, Green, and Red