In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

Additional Model Predictions ⬇️

NBA Model Predictions- Click Here

NHL Model Predictions- Click Here

There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the NBA, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 8-3

Over/Under Predictions: 7-4

Spread Predictions: 4-7

Featured Matchup: 1-0

One NFL game is scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for that matchup can be found below.

San Francisco 49ers @ Kansas City Chiefs

Model Predicts- 49ers ML, UNDER 47.5, Chiefs +2

The 2023-24 NFL season will come to a close this evening, as the San Francisco 49ers take on the Kansas City Chiefs in the Super Bowl.

San Francisco is coming off two narrow victories in the postseason, needing comeback victories to defeat the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions by three points. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have taken down the Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills, and Baltimore Ravens to reach this point, with two of those wins coming on the road.

Our model is predicting a San Francisco win today, but it expects the Chiefs to keep things close. Let’s take a look at why that is.

San Francisco 49ers

• Slow starts are big concern

  • Held scoreless in 1st quarter of both playoff games

  • Outscored 30-14 in 1st half of both games

  • Came against weaker defenses- Green Bay and Detroit rank in bottom 12 in EPA/play

• Inability to stop the run and force punts will be deciding factor

  • Allowed 136 rush yards to Packers, 182 to Lions

  • Been a common theme for much of season- rank 24th in opponent rush success rate

  • Bad on 3rd down- Opponents converting 42.08% of 3rd down attempts this season, has jumped to 55.00% in last three games

Kansas City Chiefs

• Come out of gates quick

  • Scored at least 13 points in 1st half of all playoff games

  • +15 point differential in 1st half this postseason

• Problem- offense tends to disappear late

  • Rank 28th in second half points per game (7.6)

  • Held scoreless in second half against Baltimore in AFC Championship

• Luckily have strong defense to make up for lack of scoring late

  • 6th in opponent EPA/play, 4th in opponent success rate

What’s the Play?

Our model expects the 49ers to win their first Super Bowl since the 1994-95 season, but we think this is a great spot to back the Chiefs on the spread.

San Francisco’s inability to stop the run and force punts is a massive concern. It will open up the door for Isiah Pacheco to pick up large chunks of yardage on the ground, and help sustain long drives to keep Brock Purdy and the 49ers offense on the sideline.

Additionally, San Francisco needed two comeback wins against sub-par defenses to reach this point, but another slow start could be tough to come back from as Kansas City is far better than Green Bay and Detroit on that side of the ball. As a result, we’ll back the Chiefs as a short underdog.

The Play: Chiefs +2 (-115)

Money Line Trends 💰

• San Francisco 49ers- 14-5 overall this season, 9-2 in last 11 games

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Kansas City Chiefs- Under is 14-6 this season, 2-1 in playoffs

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Kansas City Chiefs- 12-7-1 against the spread (ATS) this season, 3-0 ATS as an underdog

😬 Kadarius Toney likely sidelined for Super Bowl. Sources have indicated that Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Kadarius Toney is unlikely to participate in Super Bowl LVIII against the San Francisco 49ers. Despite not being listed on the injury report, Toney has been sidelined since Week 15 and hasn't surpassed five receiving yards in any game this season. Although head coach Andy Reid mentioned that Toney has been practicing, his availability for the Super Bowl remains uncertain, with Toney previously dealing with hip and ankle injuries but asserting his fitness ahead of the Chiefs' recent playoff matchups.

👀 Patriots likely to move off Mac Jones in offseason. Quarterback Mac Jones is reportedly likely to depart from the New England Patriots during the upcoming offseason. Drafted in the first round in 2021, Jones initially impressed by leading the team to a playoff berth and finishing second in Offensive Rookie of the Year voting, but faced struggles in subsequent seasons. With significant changes within the Patriots organization, including the departure of longtime head coach Bill Belichick, Jones' future with the team appears uncertain, especially considering the likelihood that his fifth-year rookie option won't be picked up.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- What two NFL franchises have won the most Super Bowls?

Question #2- Who did the Los Angeles Clippers select with the first overall pick in the 2009 NBA Draft?

Question #3- Zack Wheeler played for what MLB team prior to his stint with the Philadelphia Phillies?

Anyone know what has happened on February 11th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On February 11th…

1984- NHL legend Wayne Gretzky sets the NHL record for short-handed goals in a season. Gretzky set the mark by netting his 11th short-handed goal. His record would eventually be broken by Mario Lemieux, who scored 13 short handed goals in the 1988-89 season.

1990- The 40th NBA All-Star game is played in Miami Arena in Miami, Florida. The Eastern Conference defeated the Western Conference by a score of 130-113, opening up a 17-point in the first quarter and never looking back. Magic Johnson was named MVP of the game despite the Western Conference’s loss.

1997- Bill Parcells becomes the head coach of the New York Jets. Parcells would also become the general manager of the team, giving him a position in the front office in addition to the coaching staff. His tenure with the Jets would last from 1997-99, and he would finish with a 20-12 regular season record.

1. Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots

2. Blake Griffin

3. New York Mets