The College Football Playoff Continues

In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

Additional Model Predictions ⬇️ 

NBA Model Predictions- Click Here

NHL Model Predictions- Click Here

NCAAB Model Predictions- Click Here

There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the NFL, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 1-0

Over/Under Predictions: 0-1

Spread Predictions: 1-0

Featured Matchup: 1-0

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Five college football games featuring an FBS opponent are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all five matchups can be found below.

Penn State Nittany Lions @ Boise State Broncos

Model Predicts- Penn State ML, OVER 54, Boise State +11.5

The Penn State Nittany Lions will make the journey across the country on Tuesday, as they will take their talents to Glendale, Arizona to battle the Boise State Broncos in the second round of the College Football Playoff.

Penn State enters this New Year’s Eve matchup with a College Football Playoff win already under its belt, taking down SMU in State College on December 21st. Meanwhile, Boise State has not played a game in nearly one month, with the Broncos’ last matchup being a win over UNLV on December 6th.

Our model projects Penn State to advance to the next round of the postseason with roughly a eight-point win this evening, but we are more focused on the total in this matchup. Let’s dive into why that is.

Penn State Nittany Lions

• Enter tonight off win over SMU in Round 1 of College Football Playoff

  • Won game 38-10. Scored 28 points in first half and 10 points in second half

  • Defense was responsible for two touchdowns and three turnovers in game

• Offense relies heavily on the run, but has had great success in doing so

  • Run ball on 56.84% of plays this season- ranks 34th out of 134 FBS team

  • Rank inside top-20 in rush yards/game (201.21) and yards/carry (5.30)

• Defense is among one of strongest units in country

  • Holding opponents to 4.55 yards/play (6th in FBS) and 37% success rate

Boise State Broncos

• Enter tonight with plenty of rest

  • Last game was December 6th vs UNLV. Won game 21-7

  • Win was 11th straight victory. Ended year with 12-1 record

• Like Penn State, have had tremendous success with run this season

  • Rank 5th in FBS in rush yards/game with 250.4, 2nd in yards/carry (6.32)

  • Led by Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty- 2497 rush yards (7.26 yards/carry), 29 rushing TDs

• Largest defensive weakness is stopping explosive plays

  • Have surrendered 35 plays of 30+ yards (121st out of 134 in FBS)

What’s the Play?

Our model sees some value in backing a well-rested Boise State squad on the spread here, but we’d prefer the back the over in this spot.

Boise State’s bread and butter offensively is the run, which on the surface may be difficult to get going against a Penn State defense that surrenders just 3.11 yards/carry. However, the Nittany Lions rarely faced a strong rushing attack this season, including facing five opponents that ranked in the bottom 26 of the the FBS in rushing yards/game. One of the strongest rush offenses Penn State faced was Oregon in the Big 10 Championship, a game in which the Ducks tallied 183 yards on the ground, giving us confidence the Broncos and Jeanty can find success in that area.

However, Boise State is likely in trouble defensively. Not only will the Broncos have to stop a two-headed monster at running back in Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, but their vulnerability to the explosive pass gives Drew Allar and an otherwise sluggish passing attack a great chance to take the top off. Boise also struggles to produce much pressure, producing a havoc play of 20.4% of snaps, which will give Penn State’s passing offense plenty of time to develop.

In summary, we expect Boise State and Penn State to move the ball on the ground here, and the Broncos’ lack of pressure along with vulnerability in the secondary puts Penn State in a position to pile on the points. Our model projects 57 points to be scored, giving us plenty of room to back the over at its current total of 54.

The Play: Over 54 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Louisville- 8-4 overall this season, 7-2 as a favorite

• South Carolina- 9-3 overall this season, 4-3 vs ranked opponents

• Penn State- 12-2 overall this season, 12-0 as a favorite

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Michigan- Over is 7-5 this season, 4-2 as an underdog

• LSU- Under is 8-4 this season, 2-1 as an underdog

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Boise State- 7-6 against the spread (ATS) this season, 1-0 ATS as an underdog

🎶 Missouri rallies late to beat Iowa in Music City Bowl. Missouri rallied from a 24-14 deficit in the Music City Bowl, scoring the final 13 points to defeat Iowa 27-24, highlighted by Blake Craig's game-winning 56-yard field goal with 4:36 remaining. Brady Cook threw for 287 yards and two touchdowns, while the defense secured the victory with key stops and Johnny Walker's second sack of the game. Iowa, despite an early lead and standout plays like Kaden Wetjen's 100-yard kickoff return, fell short as Missouri celebrated its eighth 10-win season.

🗳 Bowling Green’s Fannin declares for NFL Draft. Bowling Green tight end Harold Fannin Jr., who set FBS records for receptions and receiving yards, announced he will forgo his final college season to enter the NFL draft. Fannin, a consensus All-American, led the nation with 117 catches for 1,555 yards and tied for the most 100-yard receiving games with eight. The 6-foot-4 junior capped his career with an FBS postseason record 17 catches for 213 yards in the 68 Ventures Bowl and is projected as a top tight end prospect in the draft.

Today’s Top Sportsbook/DFS Offers🎰

Sportsbooks and Daily Fantasy sites are providing new users with a plethora of offers and bonuses when they sign up, and our staff has provided it’s top three for December 31, 2024!

To claim an offer, click the “Open Account” button on the corresponding banner, complete the sign up process, make a deposit, and start betting!

DraftKings- Bet $5 and get $150 bonus bets!

Fanatics- Sign-up and bet to earn up to $1,000 in no-sweat bets!

Underdog Fantasy- Receive a free pick plus a first deposit offer up to $1,000 after sign-up!

To see all sportsbooks and offers available in your area, click HERE

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Who is the only active NBA player to play college basketball at Oral Roberts?

Question #2- What school is the only 15-seed to reach the Elite 8 in March Madness history?

Question #3- How many times has Connor McDavid won the Hart Trophy (MVP) since 2017?

Anyone know what has happened on December 31st throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On December 31st…

1988- Mario Lemieux scores or assists on every Penguins goal in an 8-6 win over the New Jersey Devils. Lemieux famously recorded five goals in the match, all of which were scored in a different manner: even strength, power play, shorthanded, penalty shot, and empty net. He also recorded three assists in the game.

2017- The Cleveland Browns suffer a 28-24 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Losing was a common theme for Cleveland that season, as the Browns became just the second team in NFL history to finish the regular season 0-16. The only other team to finish 0-16 was the Detroit Lions, which came in the 2008 season.

2018- James Harden scores 43 points in a 113-101 win over the Memphis Grizzlies. The performance was the 4th straight game in which Harden scored 40+ points, as well as the 8th straight contest that he scored 35+ points. He would also record at least five assists in all eight of those matchups, joining Oscar Robertson as the only players to record 35 points and five assists in eight straight games.

1. DaQuan Jeffries

2. Saint Peter’s

3. 3

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