In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 6-9

Over/Under Predictions: 10-5

Run Line Predictions: 6-9

3-star Predictions: 0-1

There is one NFL game set to take place on Thursday evening, with that matchup being between the New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers.

New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers

Model Predicts- 49ers ML, UNDER 44.5, 49ers -10

The New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers will square off in an NFC battle on Thursday Night Football.

New York enters this matchup with a 1-1 record, but was flirting with 0-2 after a scare from the Arizona Cardinals. Meanwhile, San Fran is a perfect 2-0 after starting its season with wins over the Steelers and Rams.

Playing on Thursday Night Football means this is a short week for both squads, but our model is still leaning heavily towards the 49ers in this matchup. Let’s dive into why that is and see our model’s best bet for this matchup.

New York Giants

• 1-1 overall, but could not have had much worse start to season

  • Week 1- Lost 40-0 to the Dallas Cowboys

  • Week 2- Beat Arizona 31-28, but did not score until third quarter and were losing 20-0 at halftime

• Offense has struggled to get things going

  • Rank 25th in yards per play (4.6). 4 turnovers through two weeks

  • Daniel Jones- 22nd in completion % (63.1%), 26th in passer rating (72.9). Averaging 6.5 yards per pass attempt

• Defense is struggling just as much

  • 34 points allowed per game- most in NFL

  • Allowing 4.6 yards per rush attempt and 136 rush yards per game

  • 5.6 yards per play- 6th most in NFL

  • Do rank 5th in pass rush win rate

• Dealing with significant injuries

  • Saquon Barkley (OUT), Andrew Thomas (OUT), Ben Bredeson (OUT)

San Francisco 49ers

• Off to perfect start after picking up win in Weeks 1 and 2

• Offense is firing on all cylinders

  • 2nd in yards per play (6.3). Scored 30 points in both games this season

  • Brock Purdy- Ranked 9th in passer rating (102.9)

  • 174 rush yards per game, but rank 30th in run block win rate (ESPN)

• Defense continues to be great

  • Rank inside top-12 in pass rush and run stop win rate

  • Surrendering 4.5 yards per play- 5th fewest in NFL

  • Getting opponent off field fast

    • Opponent average time of possession is 27:54. Have generated 4 turnovers through 2 games

What’s the Play?

Backing any team as a double digit favorite is a tough sell. However, we feel that the 49ers can things done at home and win by double digits.

While the Giants did string together an impressive comeback las week, there is still a ton of things to worry about for this offense. Not scoring against the Cowboys in bad weather is one thing, but being shutout against the Cardinals, arguably the worst team in the league, in the first half is a bad sign. Things won’t get any easier tonight with Saquon Barkley sidelined while going against a defense that has dominated through two weeks.

San Fran is dealing with some injuries, specifically to Brandon Aiyuk, but has the superior QB and a defense that can shred an Giants offensive line that will be missing two starters. Our model is predicting the 49ers to win by roughly 12 points, so we’ll lay the points with San Francisco.

The Play: 49ers -10 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• San Francisco 49ers- 2-0 in 2023, 12-0 in last 12 regular season games

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• New York Giants- Under is 1-1 in 2023, 6-3 as the road team in 2022

• San Francisco 49ers- Under is 1-1 in 2023, 10-10 overall in 2022 and 5-5 as a home favorite

Spread Trends ➕➖

• San Francisco 49ers- 1-1 against the spread (ATS) in 2023, 13-7 overall ATS in 2022 and 9-1 ATS as home favorite

New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers

• New York Giants

  • Saquon Barkley (OUT), Andrew Thomas (OUT), Ben Bredeson (OUT), Azeez Ojulari (OUT)

• San Francisco 49ers

  • Brandon Aiyuk (Questionable)

🔄 Rams trade Akers to Vikings. The Minnesota Vikings have taken proactive steps to address their rushing deficiencies by acquiring running back Cam Akers from the Los Angeles Rams. The trade includes a 2026 draft pick exchange, with the Vikings also gaining a conditional seventh-round pick while the Rams receive a conditional sixth-rounder. The Vikings, who currently have the NFL's lowest rushing yards this season, hope Akers can bolster their running game, which has taken a back seat to their strong passing offense.

🐻 Williams resigns as Bears DC. Alan Williams, who allegedly had police activity at his home on Wednesday, has stepped down from his position as the Chicago Bears' defensive coordinator, citing the need to prioritize his health and family. He expressed gratitude for the opportunity to work with the historic NFL franchise and conveyed his intention to return to coaching after addressing his health concerns.Bears coach Matt Eberflus assumed defensive playcalling duties in Williams' absence and would continue to do so unless a resolution was reached with Williams.

📝 Raiders place Jones on NFI list. The Las Vegas Raiders have placed defensive end Chandler Jones on the non-football illness list due to an ongoing personal matter. Jones had been absent from the team since Labor Day weekend when he posted several social media messages expressing discontent with the Raiders and team personnel. Despite being on the 53-man roster, Jones had been inactive for the Raiders' first two games, and his placement on the NFI list means he will miss at least the next four games, with the possibility of remaining there for the entire season if not activated by the end of the waiting period.

There are nine MLB games scheduled to take place throughout this afternoon and evening. However, due to lines being unavailable at the time the model was run, our model has predictions for eight of today’s matchups.

Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals

Model Predicts- Brewers ML, OVER 8.5, Cardinals +1.5

The Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals will square off in the fourth and final game of a four-game series on Thursday afternoon.

Milwaukee currently owns the series lead, going 2-1 overall through the first three games. That has moved the Brewers to 86-66 for the season and given the team a seven-game lead in the NL Central. Meanwhile, St. Louis has fallen to 67-85 and is 19 games back of Milwaukee in the division.

The gap in talent between these two teams is rather significant, and our model like the better team to pull out the win today. Let’s dive into why that is and see our model’s best bet for today’s matchup.

Milwaukee Brewers

• Have been one of the most consistent teams all season long

  • As previously mentioned, sit at 86-66 overall. Have gone 7-3 in last 10 games. 12-7 in since September 1st

• Pitching staff has been largest advantage this season

  • Rank 4th in ERA (3.79) and 10th in xFIP (4.12), per FanGraphs

  • Rank inside the top-10 in ground ball rate (43.4%), walks per 9 innings (3.03), and strikeout rate (23.8%)

  • Have gotten even better in September- Rank 1st in ERA (2.57) and 3rd in strikeout rate (26.2%)

• Average offense this month though- 103 wRC+ (17th)

  • But, but rank 5th in walk rate (10.7%) and 2nd in BABIP (.329)

• Wade Miley (8-4 record, 3.38 ERA) will start on mound

  • Pitches to contact- ranks in bottom 8% of MLB in Whiff and Strikeout rate

  • But, ranks in top 7% in Hard Hit rate and owns 46.1% ground ball rate

St. Louis Cardinals

• Solid offense in 2023

  • 106 wRC+ and .749 OPS. Rank inside top-10 in walk and strikeout rate

• Have had slow month at the plate though

  • 96 wRC+, .709 OPS, .260 BABIP (FanGraphs)

• Poor pitching staff has led to downfall

  • Rank 25th in ERA (4.79), 30th in BABIP (.319), and 28th in strikeouts per nine innings (7.69)

  • ERA has risen to 5.01 in September

• Miles Mikolas (7-12 record, 4.84 ERA) will start on mound

  • Gives up dangerous amounts of contact- Ranks in bottom 5% in Strikeout rate (15.1%) and Whiff rate (16.0%)

  • Struggles to keep balls out of the air- 9.4% Barrel rate and 39.1% ground ball rate

  • 6.17 ERA in last 6 starts. 1.98 home runs per nine innings in that time

What’s the Play?

Both Miley and Mikolas can be vulnerable to blowing up at any moment given their inability to avoid contact. However, we agree with our model that Miley and the Brewers have the best shot at limiting the damage and can win this matchup.

Miley’s greatest advantage today is his consistency when it comes to generating ground balls. Despite his ERA rising to 3.89 since August 1st, he has posted a 52.6% ground ball rate and just .187 BABIP, showing that he is hard to square up.

Meanwhile, Mikolas has surrendered 45 hits in his last 41 innings, nine of which have been home runs.

We’ll back the better team to win this game and the series.

The Play: Brewers ML (-105)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Milwaukee Brewers- 86-66 overall this season, 28-17 against division opponents (Play NL Central rival At. Louis today)

• Philadelphia Phillies- 83-69 overall this season, 43-31 as the home team

• Chicago Cubs- 79-73 overall this season, 29-19 against division opponents (Play NL Central rival Pittsburgh today)

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Tampa Bay Rays- Over is 81-67-5 this season, 47-28-2 as the home team

• Atlanta Braves- Over is 85-64-3 this season, 41-34-2 as the away team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Tampa Bay Rays- Run line is 82-71 overall this season, 64-62 as a home favorite

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com.

🤕 Twins place Correa on IL. The Minnesota Twins have placed shortstop Carlos Correa on the 10-day injured list due to plantar fasciitis in his left foot. Rookie third baseman Royce Lewis is also undergoing testing for his left hamstring and was not in the starting lineup for the team's recent game. Correa's injury, which he has been dealing with since May and aggravated recently, prompted the move, with the hope of having him fully recovered for a potential playoff run.

💰Mets, Alonso discussing extension. The New York Mets and their star first baseman, Pete Alonso, appear to be in agreement on financial terms for a potential long-term contract extension. However, they diverge on the length of the deal, with Alonso seeking a 10-year contract, a proposition the Mets have not yet embraced, possibly due to his age, as he turns 29 in December. It remains uncertain whether new president of baseball operations David Stearns has been involved in these negotiations, but Alonso's contract situation has garnered attention from other teams, including the Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- What college did former San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick attend before playing in the NFL?

Question #2- Which former Philadelphia Eagles player holds the franchise record for receptions in a season?

Question #3- What former NBA first round draft pick and University of Memphis star was banned from the NBA, but later reinstated in 2021?

Anyone know what has happened on September 21st throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On September 21st…

1986- Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Fernando Valenzuela becomes the first Mexican pitcher to win 20 games in a season. He would end the 1986 season with 21 total wins, which happened to be the most in the National League. Valenzuela’s career would extend all the way until 1997, one that included getting selected to six All-Star Games, winning one World Series, and taking home the Cy Young award.

1993- Nolan Ryan pitches in his final MLB game. The performance was certainly not up to Ryan’s standards, as he threw just 46 pitches and failed to make it out of the first inning. Ryan also tore a ligament in his elbow in the matchup, which was ultimately the cause for ending his 27-year career.

2004- San Francisco Giants slugger Barry Bonds is intentionally walked four times in a nine inning game. Bonds set a new MLB record with the performance, and it was the second time that Bonds had been intentionally walked four times in a single game. Opposing pitchers didn’t have much of a choice besides walking Bonds in 2004, a season in which he hit .362 with a 1.422 OPS.

1. University of Nevada, Reno

2. Zach Ertz

3. Tyreke Evans