In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 12-1

Over/Under Predictions: 4-9

Run Line Predictions: 8-5

Featured Matchup: 0-1

There is one NFL game scheduled to take place tonight, with the Detroit Lions traveling to Wisconsin to take on the Green Bay Packers.

Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers

Model Predicts- Packers ML, UNDER 46, Packers +1.5

The Detroit Lions will hit the road for the first time since Week 1 to take on the Green Bay Packers on Thursday Night Football.

Detroit enters this matchup as the favorite, beating Kansas City and Atlanta already this season on its way to a 2-1 record. Green Bay is also 2-1 in 2023, beating the Bears and Saints but falling to the Falcons.

Green Bay entered the season as a wild card with Jordan Love at quarterback, but he has proven he can lead the Packers to wins and our model likes him to do so once again tonight. Let’s dive into why that is and see our model’s best bet for this matchup.

Detroit Lions

• Offense has remained consistent through three weeks

  • Scored at least 20 points each week, with most being 31 in Week 2

  • 7th in yards per play (5.8)

  • Jared Goff has been as solid as they come- Ranks 7th in adjusted EPA per play and 4th in completion %

  • However, offense ranks 17th in EPA per play and 16th in success rate as team

• Balanced run and pass game

  • Average 269.7 yards per game through the air, 111.7 yards per game on the ground

  • Run ball on 46.46% of plays

• Dealing with injuries all over offensive line

  • Taylor Decker (Questionable), Jonah Jackson (Questionable), Matt Nelson (OUT), and Halapoulivaati Vaitai (OUT)

• Secondary banged up as well

  • CJ Gardner-Johnson (IR), Emmanuel Moseley (Questionable)

Green Bay Packers

• Jordan Love era has gotten off to solid start

  • 2-1 overall. Blew the lead in only loss of season

• However, Love has provided mixed results

  • Ranks 3rd in Adjusted EPA per play and 1st in air yards

  • But, ranks 34th in completion % (53.4%)

  • Offense as whole ranks 21st in success rate

• Defense has been all over the place

  • Rank 10th in passing yards allowed, but can’t stop the run

    • 136.7 rush yards allowed per game (27th)

  • Good on 3rd down- holding opponents to 31% conversion rate

• Appears to be getting some players back on offense

  • Christian Watson expected to make debut. Aaron Jones has chance to play

What’s the Play?

Divisional battles are always close in the NFL, especially when first place in the division is on the line. As a result, we agree with our model that Green Bay is in a good spot to cover the short 1.5-point spread as a road underdog.

Detroit’s injuries on the offensive line are going to make things very difficult for the offense, especially on a short week. A group that is regarded as one of the best in the NFL is all of a sudden extremely thin, which is something the Packers can exploit as they rank 8th in pass rush win rate and already have nine sacks this season.

The return of Christian Watson and potentially Aaron Jones will also give a boost to an offense that hasn’t been all that impressive, which at the very least should allow them to go score for score with Detroit. We’ll take the Pack as a home underdog tonight.

The Play: Packers +1.5 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Green Bay Packers- 2-1 overall this season, 14-4 as the home team since 2021

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Detroit Lions- Under is 2-1 overall this season, 1-0 as the away team

• Green Bay Packers- Under is 1-2 overall this season, 1-0 as the home team

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Green Bay Packers- 3-0 against the spread (ATS) this season, 3-0 as a home underdog since 2021

Below is a statistical comparison between the Lions and Packers on offense and defense.

What’s included?

• Money Line, Spread, and Over/Under Records

• Quarterback Stats

• Leading Rushers and Receivers

• Defense Stats

💪 Bryce Young set to start in Week 4. Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young is set to make a comeback as the starting quarterback for their upcoming home game against the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday. Young, who missed the previous game against Seattle, fully participated in Wednesday's practice, his first since sustaining a mild ankle sprain during a Week 2 Monday night loss to the New Orleans Saints. Although his ankle was taped, it did not hinder his performance, and the team is cautiously optimistic about his return, pending his response to Thursday's practice.

🤕 More info surfaces about Peter Skoronski’s absence. Tennessee Titans left guard Peter Skoronski revealed that he suffered a ruptured appendix earlier this month, necessitating an emergency appendectomy. Skoronski experienced discomfort on September 16 and was promptly taken to a hospital, where his appendix later burst. Although he has not played for the past two weeks and lost weight due to a diminished appetite, he is on the path to recovery, gradually regaining the lost weight and returning to conditioning work under the guidance of the Titans' coaching staff.

🏈 Anthony Richardson returns to practice. Anthony Richardson was unable to play last week due to being in the concussion protocol, however, he is beginning to show signs of improvement. Coach Shane Steichen mentioned that Richardson will participate in Wednesday's practice, taking "starter's reps.” His return is crucial as the Colts are currently leading the AFC South with a 2-1 record and see Richardson as a significant part of their future, emphasizing the importance of keeping him healthy and free from concussions.

There are 11 MLB games scheduled to take place throughout this afternoon and evening. However, due to lines being unavailable at the time the model was run, our model has predictions for just 7 of today’s matchups.

Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles

Model Predicts- Red Sox ML, OVER 7, Red Sox 1.5

The Boston Red Sox will travel down to Baltimore on Thursday to face the Orioles in what is the final series of the regular season for both teams.

Boston enters this matchup with nothing left to play for, having already been eliminated from the playoffs. However, Baltimore still has something left on the table, needing to win just one game in order to clinch the AL East.

Surprisingly, our model gives a slight edge to the struggling Red Sox here, but we have our eyes set on the over in this matchup. Let’s dive into why that is and see our model’s best bet for tonight’s rivalry matchup.

Boston Red Sox

• Have been brutally bad in last 10 games

  • 2-8 overall in that stretch, 0-4 in last four games

• Non-existent offense has been the main reason why

  • Rank 30th in wRC+ (62) and 29th in OPS (.617) in last 10 games

  • Struggling to see the ball- 26.9% strikeout rate against a 6.8% walk rate

  • 3.00 runs per game

• Chris Sale (6-4 record, 4.42 ERA) will get start on mound

  • Generates swings and misses- 30.1% strikeout rate and 30.3% Whiff rate

  • However, ranks in bottom 40% of MLB in Barrel rate and ground ball rate, leading to 1.30 home runs per nine innings

  • Owns 13.50 ERA and 2.25 WHIP in three appearances against Baltimore this season

Baltimore Orioles

• One of best offenses in league this month

  • Rank 7th in wRC+ (113), 1st in BABIP (.334), and 11th in OPS (.768)

  • Killing left-handed pitchers in that time, which Chris Sale is

    • See wRC+ rise to 125, BABIP rise to .346, and OPS rise to .793

    • Also posting 13.3% walk rate and 18.6% strikeout rate in those situations this month

• Dean Kremer (12-5 record, 4.25 ERA) will get start on mound

  • Deceiving record hides the fact that he is one of worst pitchers Baltimore has to offer

  • Pitching to contact- Ranks in bottom 33% in Whiff and strikeout rate

  • Susceptible to hard contact- Ranks in bottom 37% in Hard Hit rate and average exit velocity

  • 6.64 ERA in last three starts. 9.87 ERA against Boston this season

What’s the Play?

Dean Kremer has okay surface-level numbers, but the truth is that he is more of a replacement-level pitcher, which is why our model is leaning towards Boston here. However, as previously mentioned, we would prefer the over in this spot.

Boston hasn’t been able to generate much offense lately, but it is bound to turn around at some point. That can easily happen tonight, as Rafael Devers is expected to be back in the lineup after a day off and Dean Kremer owns a 9.1% Barrel rate and 5.10 xERA, showing that regression is on the horizon for the right-hander.

This matchup has proven to be a difficult one for both of these pitchers this season, and we feel a total of seven runs is far too low given that trend.

The Play: Over 7 (-105)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Milwaukee Brewers- 89-69 overall this season, 46-31 as the home team

• Seattle Mariners- 85-73 overall this season, 30-18 against division opponents (Play AL West rival Texas today)

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Boston Red Sox- Over is 81-73-4 this season, 27-21 against division opponents

• Baltimore Orioles- Over is 79-68-11 this season, 26-21-1 against division opponents

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Minnesota Twins- Run line is 6-1 in last seven games, 5-1 as a favorite

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com.

🪄Orioles lower magic number to one. Adley Rutschman delivered a standout performance by hitting a two-run homer and driving in three runs, while Grayson Rodriguez had a solid outing on the mound as the Baltimore Orioles secured a 5-1 win over the Washington Nationals. This victory brought the Orioles' magic number to one in the AL East, although they couldn't clinch the division due to Tampa Bay's win over Boston. Baltimore now has a chance to capture its first AL East title since 2014 in a four-game series against the Red Sox, with the Orioles boasting a 99-59 record, their highest victory total since 1980.

🚨 Acuna creates 40-70 club. Atlanta Braves star Ronald Acuna Jr. continued his stellar season on Wednesday night, becoming the first player in MLB history to record 40 home runs and 70 stolen bases in a season. His 70th steal came in extra innings against the Cubs, making him the first player to swipe 70 bases since Jacoby Ellsbury did so in 2009. Acuna now stands in a league of his own, and is also the only person to reside in the 40-50 and 40-60 clubs.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Brett Favre played for four teams in his career, with the Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, and New York Jets being three of those teams. What team was the fourth?

Question #2- Which NCAA Division I school has won the most college football national titles?

Question #3- What former NBA player is now a part owner of the Washington Commanders?

Anyone know what has happened on September 28th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On September 28th…

1984- Former MLB player Ryan Zimmerman is born in Washington, North Carolina. Zimmerman made his MLB debut in 2005 for the Washington Nationals after attending the University of Virginia, playing for Washington his entire career. He would retire following the 2021 season with 284 home runs and 1,061 RBIs.

1993- Dennis Martinez becomes the 7th pitcher n MLB history to win 100 games in the National and American Leagues. Martinez accomplished the feat by recording wins with the Baltimore Orioles, Cleveland Indians, and Seattle Mariners and the AL, and for the Montreal Expos and Atlanta Braves in the NL. He would end his career with a 245-193 record and 3.70 ERA.

2022- New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge hits his 61st home run of the season in an 8-3 win over the Toronto Blue Jays. The homer tied Judge with Roger Maris for the American League record, which Judge eventually broke by hitting his 62nd homer just a few days later. Judge has hit 255 homers over his eight-year MLB career, the 17th most among active players.

1. Atlanta Falcons

2. Yale (Bet no one guessed that)

3. Magic Johnson