In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the NHL and MLB, with our model focusing in on two of those predictions in our Featured Matchups. Those predictions went 1-1 overall, and you can see how each of the models performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 1-1

Over/Under Predictions: 0-2

Puck Line Predictions: 1-1

Featured Matchup: 0-1

Money Line Predictions: 1-0

Over/Under Predictions: 0-1

Run Line Predictions: 1-0

Featured Matchup: 1-0

There is one NFL game scheduled to take place today, with that matchup featuring the Jacksonville Jaguars and New Orleans Saints. Our model’s predictions for tonight’s matchup can be found below.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ New Orleans Saints

Model Predicts- Saints ML, UNDER 40, Jaguars +1

The Jacksonville Jaguars will travel to New Orleans, Louisiana to take on the Saints on Thursday Night Football.

Jacksonville enters this matchup with an impressive 4-2 record, winning three consecutive games following a 1-2 start. Meanwhile, New Orleans sits at 3-3 after falling short against the Texans last week.

Our model makes this game a coin flip and doesn’t see much value on either team’s money line, but it has shown that there is value on the total here. Let’s dive into why that is.

Jacksonville Jaguars

• Enter this week on three-game win streak

  • Two games in London, one game on home field

  • +38 point differential in that time

• Still a middle-of-the-road offense despite recent success

  • 17th in EPA/play, 20th in yards per play (4.9)

  • Struggling to run ball- 3.8 yards per carry, rank 24th in rushing success rate

  • Poor offensive line- 32nd in pass block win rate, 30th in run block win rate

• Defense- holding opponents to 41.2% success rate on all plays, lead NFL with 2.5 forced turnovers per game

• Key injuries- Trevor Lawrence (Questionable), Brandon Scherff (Questionable), Zay Jones (Out), Walker Little (Out)

New Orleans Saints

• Defense has carried so far

  • 5th in opponent EPA/play, 3rd in opponent success rate, 8th in run stop win rate

  • One flaw is pass rush- 32nd in pass rush win rate, rank 23rd in sacks this season (13)

• Offense has been average, at best

  • 26th in yards per play (4.6), 22nd in EPA/play and success rate

  • Have scored more than 20 points only one time this season

• Derek Carr- willing to throw deep (4th in air yards), ranks 21st in adjusted EPA per play

What’s the Play?

The best quarterback that New Orleans has faced this season is likely C.J. Stroud, which is why the Saints defense looks so good on paper. A banged up Trevor Lawrence could give the Saints another cake walk matchup, but we feel more comfortable backing the under here.

Jacksonville has looked great on offense recently, but an injured Trevor Lawrence could force the Jags to run the ball tonight, something they have not done well all season. The Saints are in a similar spot, as Carr is dealing with some lingering shoulder issues after leaving the game against Green bay a few weeks back.

We think its likely that both defenses take control of this game, leading to another low-scoring contest on Thursday Night Football.

The Play: Under 40 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• New Orleans Saints- 3-3 overall this season, 1-1 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• New Orleans Saints- Under is 6-0 this season, 17-6 as the home team over last two seasons

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Jacksonville Jaguars- 4-2 against the spread (ATS) this season, 1-0 ATS as the away team

🐬 Jalen Ramsey returns to Dolphins practice. Dolphins cornerback Jalen Ramsey made a limited return to practice on Wednesday. As a result, Miami opened his 21-day practice window after suffering a left meniscus injury during training camp and undergoing surgery in July. While he won't play against the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday, there's cautious optimism that Ramsey may return before the Week 10 bye, giving the Dolphins until November 7th to activate him.

🔄 Mecole Hardman traded back to Kansas City. Wide receiver Mecole Hardman Jr., a two-time Super Bowl champion with the Chiefs, is returning to Kansas City through a trade with the New York Jets. In the exchange, the Chiefs are giving up a 2025 sixth-round draft pick in return for Hardman and a 2025 seventh-round pick. The move comes as the Chiefs have faced struggles in their wide receiver corps this season, with rookie Rashee Rice leading in key statistics, and veterans Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Kadarius Toney, and Skyy Moore falling short of expectations.

After only two NHL games yesterday, the league has blessed us with a 12-game slate today. Our model’s predictions for all 12 matchups can be found below.

Edmonton Oilers @ Philadelphia Flyers

Model Predicts- Oilers ML, OVER 7, Flyers +1.5

The Edmonton Oilers will wrap up a two-game road trip on Thursday with a matchup against the Philadelphia Flyers.

Edmonton enters this one coming off a 6-1 win over the Nashville Predators, the team’s first win of the season after starting 0-2. Philadelphia on the other hand sits at 2-1, picking up wins against the Blue Jackets and Canucks.

Every Oilers game up to this point has featured a high offensive output, and our model thinks that will be the case once again. Let’s take a look at why that is and see our model’s best bet for tonight’s matchup.

Edmonton Oilers

• Offense had slow start, but bounced back in big way against Nashville

  • Scored 4 goals in first two games, six against Nashville

• Should continue to see upward trend on offense

  • GF/60 in 5-on-5 situations sits at 2.17, but xGF/60 in 5-on-5 is at 3.17 (Natural Stat Trick)

  • Generating 13.87 high danger chances per 60 minutes (HDCF/60) in same situations, the 4th most in NHL

• Starting goalie- Jack Campbell

  • .935 Save % and .838 high-danger Save % in 5-on-5

  • +0.8 Goals Saved Above Expected this season. Was -18.3 a season ago

Philadelphia Flyers

• Due for positive regression on offense in 5-on-5 situations

  • GF/60 is 1.93, xGF/60 is 3.26

  • Great at applying pressure- Rank 2nd in HDCF/60 (14.95), average 33.3 shots on goal per game

• Will likely see defense start to get worse

  • 1.93 GA/60 in 5-on-5, but 2.48 xGA/60

  • Getting killed by penalties- 16.3 penalty minutes per game is 8th most in NHL

• Starting goalie- Carter Hart

  • Coming off shutout win over Vancouver

  • .952 Save % in 5-on-5 situations, +0.8 GSAx

What’s the Play?

Both Edmonton and Philadelphia have had tremendous success when it comes to generating pressure on opposing goaltenders, and yet both teams are still due for positive regression on offense. As a result, we’ll roll with the over here.

All three of Edmonton’s games have featured very little defense, with an average of 7.67 goals scored per game. Some of that is due to their lethal offensive attack that features Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, but it also because Stuart Skinner and Jack Campbell aren’t the most reliable options in net.

Philadelphia has looked solid defensively, but we saw them give up 5 goals to Ottawa over the weekend, and Edmonton is likely just as good on the offensive end of the ice. This total has fallen to 6.5 at most places, but we’ll take the better odds with the over at 7.

The Play: Over 7 (+100)

Money Line Trends 💰

• New York Rangers- 2-1-0 overall this season, 1-0-0 as the home team. 23-13-5 at home last season

• Minnesota Wild- 2-1-0 overall this season, 1-0-0 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• New York Rangers- Under is 1-2-0 this season with average total of 5.67 goals per game

• Edmonton Oilers- Over is 2-0-1 this season with average total of 7.67 goals per game

Puck Line Trends ➕➖

• Arizona Coyotes- Puck line is 3-0 overall this season

🤕 Gabe Vilardi to miss time with MCL sprain. Winnipeg Jets forward Gabriel Vilardi is expected to miss four to six weeks due to a sprained MCL, as confirmed by coach Rick Bowness following an injury during Tuesday's game against the Los Angeles Kings. The injury occurred when Vilardi was hit by Kings forward Blake Lizotte along the boards, resulting in an awkward fall where his right leg appeared to fold beneath him. Vilardi, who had a successful season last year, began 2023 on a solid note, recording one point and 11 shots on goal in just over three games.

💪 Senators blowout Capitals for third win of season. Josh Norris made a triumphant return to the ice, scoring two goals in his first game of the season and leading the Ottawa Senators to a 6-1 victory over the Washington Capitals. Norris had faced a challenging journey to recovery, missing most of the previous season due to shoulder problems and subsequent surgery. His return helped the Senators secure their third consecutive win, while the Capitals started strong but struggled defensively, ultimately falling to the Senators' dominance.

There are two MLB games scheduled to take place today, with the first beginning at 5:07 PM Eastern, Our model’s predictions for both matchups can be found below.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Model Predicts- Phillies ML, UNDER 9, Diamondbacks +1.5

The Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks will square off in Game 3 of the NLCS on Thursday evening.

Philadelphia dominated the opening two games of this series, outscoring Arizona 15-3. The Phillies are now 7-1 in the postseason, while Arizona sits at 5-2 after not losing a game in the Wild Card round or NLDS.

Our model is leaning towards the Phillies to pick up another win today, but it sees more value on the total in this spot. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Philadelphia Phillies

• Best offensive team remaining in postseason

  • Own 148 wRC+, .316 BABIP, and .940 OPS in postseason, per FanGraphs

  • 10.7% walk rate and .366 on base % rank 1st among remaining teams

  • 19 home runs in 8 games- 5 more than any other team

• Starting pitcher- Ranger Suárez

  • 1.10 ERA and 0.61 WHIP in postseason

  • 3.75 ERA and 1.00 WHIP against Arizona in regular season

  • Limits hard contact (36.1% hard hit rate), keeps balls on ground (48.8% ground ball rate)

Arizona Diamondbacks

• Offense has cooled off in NLCS

  • First 5 postseason games- 133 wRC+, .877 OPS, 13 home runs

  • Last 2 postseason games- wRC+ has dropped to -2, OPS to .360

• Strikeouts have been big issue in series

  • 34.8% strikeout rate to 4.5% walk rate, per FanGraphs

• Starting pitcher- Brandon Pfaadt

  • 3.85 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 7.0 postseason innings

  • Great control on mound- 6.2% walk rate

  • However, vulnerable to hard contact (44.0% hard hit rate) and barrel (11.7% barrel rate)

What’s the Play?

As we’ve already seen this postseason, both Philadelphia and Arizona will likely use today as a bullpen game, with Suárez and Pfaadt likely only going four innings max. As a result, we like the under in this spot.

The key for Arizona is stopping the Philadelphia home run barrage. Pfaadt’s vulnerability to barrel contact may make that difficult, but he has allowed just one home run over his last 12.2 innings, and behind him is a bullpen that owns a 3.51 ERA and 3.10 FIP.

Suárez and the Philly bullpen have been elite on the mound so far too, and a cold Diamondbacks offense is likely to struggle changing that. We’ll take the under in a likely bullpen game.

The Play: Under 9 (-105)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Philadelphia Phillies- 7-1 overall in postseason, 41-40 as the away team in regular season

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Arizona Diamondbacks- Under is 3-4 in postseason, 1-0 as the home team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Arizona Diamondbacks- Run line is 22-17 as home underdog this season (including playoffs)

💪 Astros hand Rangers first postseason loss. The Houston Astros rallied in Game 3 of the AL Championship Series, with Jose Altuve delivering a home run and Cristian Javier showcasing an impressive performance on the mound as they defeated the Texas Rangers 8-5. Max Scherzer made his return for Texas after recovering from a shoulder injury, but struggled and was taken out after four innings. Javier extended his remarkable postseason scoreless streak to a franchise-record 20 and one-third innings, helping Houston close the gap to a 2-1 series deficit.

🧤Arenado’s Gold Glove streak ends after 10 years. Nolan Arenado's impressive streak of winning consecutive Gold Gloves for ten years has come to an end, as he was not among the three finalists for the award this year. The finalists for the Gold Glove in third base are Pittsburgh's Ke'Bryan Hayes, Colorado's Ryan McMahon, and Atlanta's Austin Riley, with the winner to be announced on November 5. Among the 2023 finalists are previous winners, including Cleveland's Andrés Giménez, Houston's Kyle Tucker, and the versatile Mookie Betts, who is also a finalist in the utility category, having won six straight Gold Gloves.