In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 8-3

Over/Under Predictions: 5-5-1

Run Line Predictions: 6-5

Featured Matchup: 0-1

🏈 Anthony Richardson named Colts starter for Week 1. Anthony Richardson has reportedly solidified his position as the starting quarterback for the Indianapolis Colts after just one quarter of preseason play. The Colts' head coach, Shane Steichen, made the announcement that Richardson, the fourth overall draft pick this year, will lead the team this season, beating our Gardner Minshew for the starting spot. Despite a sub-par first preseason game, Richardson provides Colts fans with some hope for the future, drawing comparisons to Cam Newton for his large frame and dual-threat ability.

✈️ Breece Hall activated from PUP list. New York Jets running back Breece Hall was activated from the physically unable to perform list on Tuesday, one day after the Jets signed free agent running back Dalvin Cook. Hall was on the PUP list as he rehabbed a torn ACL, an injury he suffered in Week 7 last season against the Broncos. The 2022 second round pick our of Iowa State showed some promise before the injury, tallying 463 yards on 80 rush attempts last season, and is till viewed as the Jets’ long-term option even with Cook now on the roster.

💪 Brock Purdy set to be 49er starting quarterback. Second year quarterback Brock Purdy appears to have a firm grasp on the 49ers starting QB position, with head coach Kyle Shanahan stating that Purdy “would have to melt in practice” in order to lose his spot. The move comes following Purdy’s outstanding run last season, going 8-1 across nine starts and taking San Francisco to the NFC Championship game. Purdy will look to duplicate that performance this season, while once promising QBs Trey Lance and Sam Darnold battle to be second fiddle.

There are 15 MLB games scheduled to take place throughout this afternoon and evening. However, due to gaps in the season data and lines being unavailable at the time the model was run, our model has predictions for 10 of today’s matchups.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Mets

Model Predicts- Pirates ML, OVER 9, Pirates +1.5

The Pittsburgh Pirates and New York Mets will square off in the third and final game of their series on Wednesday afternoon.

Pittsburgh enters this one with a tiny bit of momentum on its side, winning last night’s battle by a score of 7-4 after falling to the Mets 7-2 on Monday.

Both of these teams have had miserable seasons after getting off to respectable starts, but our model sees a significant advantage for Pittsburgh as a road underdog for the second day in a row. Let’s take a look at why that is and where our model sees value in this matchup.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Remember when the Pittsburgh Pirates began the season 20-9? Well, those days are long gone, with the Pirates posting a 34-57 record since then, cratering this team to the basement of the NL Central.

The fast start was clearly a fluke, showing this team wasn’t equipped to win many games in the 2023 season. However, Pittsburgh does have a plethora of young talent at its disposal, a group that has started to show its potential over the last week.

Things looked like they could turn around for the Pirates in the team’s series with the Atlanta Braves last week. Pittsburgh split the four-game series with the best team in baseball, posting a +0 run differential in what was a surprisingly even series on the mound and at the plate.

We have seen that momentum spill into the current day, with Pittsburgh ranking 13th in wRC+ and 10th in OPS since Game 1 of the Atlanta series, per FanGraphs. Strikeouts have still been an issue for the Buccos in that time, but the Pirates have combatted that with the second best walk rate (12.0%) in the majors.

This team is finally getting on base, seeing its on base % rise to .335 over the last nine games, leading to an average of five runs per game.

Johan Oviedo (6-12 record, 4.42 ERA) will get the start for Pittsburgh this afternoon. The 25-year-old has had an up and down season, but as of today ranks in the top 1/3 of the the majors in Average Exit Velocity and top 50% in Whiff rate. He has also posted a 3.50 ERA and .190 BABIP in 36.0 innings since the All-Star break, more signs of continued improvement.

New York Mets

The New York Mets decided that 2023 was not their season to compete, selling off many of their key players before the August 1st trade deadline.

The impacts of the fire sale have been felt up and down the roster. New York owns an 88 wRC+, .258 BABIP, and 6.40 ERA since August second, ranking the Mets in the bottom ten in all three categories and leading to a 4-10 record.

Tylor Megill (6-6 record, 5.64 ERA) will take a stab at calming things down on the mound this afternoon, but recent trends are not in his favor.

Megill came off a month and a half stay on the IL earlier this month, and things have gone quite poorly for the 28-year-old since. In just two starts he has posted a 9.00 ERA and 1.90 WHIP, showing that opposing hitters are having no issues sizing him up.

That was often the case for Megill prior to injury as well. Per Baseball Savant, the right-hander ranks in the bottom 25% of the majors in Hard Hit rate, Average Exit Velocity, Barrel rate, strikeout rate, and walk rate, among others. All of that has contributed to his 5.64 ERA, and his 6.38 xERA shows that even more regression could be on its way.

What’s the Play?

Neither one of these teams poses a huge threat in any aspect of the game. However, we agree with our model that the Pirates should be favored in this matchup.

The underlying numbers heavily favor Oviedo here. The difference between his season ERA (4.42) and xERA (4.53) is just 0.11 runs, showing that expectations and reality are in line. Neither number is impressive, but we know what we are getting out of him as opposed to Megill.

New York lags behind in the offensive department as well, giving Pittsburgh the advantage on the mound and at the plate. Our model thinks the Pirates should be favored with odds around -125, so we’ll back them at +105 this afternoon.

The Play: Pirates ML (+105)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Houston Astros- 69-52 overall this season, 36-26 as the away team

• Texas Rangers- 72-48 overall this season, 42-20 as the home team, 8-2 n last ten games

• Baltimore Orioles- 74-46 overall this season, 25-19 as a road underdog

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Oakland Athletics- Over is 61-52-7 this season, 35-21-5 as the road team

• Texas Rangers- Over is 59-53-8 this season, 35-21-6 as the home team

• Los Angeles Dodgers- Over is 67-45-6 this season, highest win percentage in MLB

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Texas Rangers- Run line is 72-48 overall this season, 31-19 as a home favorite

• Baltimore Orioles- Run line is 74-46 overall this season, 32-12 as a road underdog

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com.

🤕 Shane McClanahan set to undergo Tommy John surgery. Tampa Bay Rays star left-handed pitcher, Shane McClanahan, is set to undergo Tommy John surgery on Monday. The surgery comes after McClanahan was placed on the IL due to forearm tightness, sidelining him after a successful season with an 11-2 record and 3.29 ERA. The loss of McClanahan marks another for an injury ravaged Rays pitching rotation, one that has already lost Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen, and Shane Baz to elbow injuries this season.

👍 Toronto activates Jordan Romano, gives Bichette rehab assignment. The Toronto Blue Jays received positive news for their playoff aspirations as they activated closer Jordan Romano from the 15-day injured list, a move aimed at bolstering their bullpen. Romano, who experienced a back injury during the All-Star Game, resumed pitching but had to exit a game on July 28 due to the same issue. With 28 saves this season and a 2.79 ERA, Romano's return adds depth to the late innings, allowing relievers Jordan Hicks and Erik Swanson to take on set-up roles. Simultaneously, All-Star shortstop Bo Bichette has begun a rehab assignment with Triple-A Buffalo, with expectations of rejoining the major league roster soon.

🌎 Porzingis out of FIBA World Cup. Latvian forward Kristaps Porzingis has revealed that he won't be participating in the upcoming FIBA Basketball World Cup due to a persistent issue with plantar fasciitis in his foot. Although he was originally slated to lead Latvia in the tournament, which is set to commence on August 25th, Porzingis shared that he and the Latvian medical and coaching teams decided it's best for him not to play. Porzingis, a towering 7-foot-3 player, recently joined the Celtics and agreed to a substantial contract extension through the 2025-26 season following an impressive previous season with Washington where he achieved a career-high 23.2 points per game.

🏒 Paul Byron to retire before 2023-24 season. Montreal Canadiens GM Kent Hughes announced in a press conference on Tuesday that forward Paul Byron will be retiring before the upcoming season. Hughes mentioned that Byron will have a meeting with the team in September to explore potential roles within the organization, but it does not appear that any of the roles will involve Byron being on the ice. Byron’s NHL career spanned 12 seasons and involved stints with the Buffalo Sabres and Calgary Flames as well, amounting to 521 games, 98 goals, and 110 assists.

🇪🇸 Spain earns first World Cup Final appearance. Following hard-earned triumphs in the quarterfinals of the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, Spain and Sweden clashed on Tuesday in the women’s World Cup semi finals. Both teams were held scoreless until late in the match, when a flurry of action unfolded from the 80th minute onward, resulting in three goals being scored within a mere 10 minutes of gameplay. Salma Paralluelo struck first for Spain, followed shortly after Olga Carmona after Sweden tied the game at one. Spain's victory marks their first appearance in a World Cup final, and they will now face the winner of Australia and England.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Only one Penn State player was selected in the 2017 NFL Draft. Who was that player, and what team selected him?

Question #2- Only one current NFL quarterback ranks in the top-11 in NFL history in touchdown passes, entering this season with 475 in his career. Who is that player?

Question #3- Four No.8 seeds have made the NCAA Basketball Championship, two of which are currently in the Big East Conference. Name those two teams.

Anyone know what has happened on August 16th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On August 16th…

2003- Cristiano Ronaldo makes his debut for Manchester United in a 4-0 victory over the Bolton Wanderers. Ronaldo, originally for Portugal, would represent Manchester United from 2003-2009, appearing in 196 contests and scoring 84 total goals. He would go on to suit up for Real Madrid and Juventus before returning to Manchester United in 2021, scoring 19 goals in 41 appearances. Ronaldo is now a member of Al Nassr, one of the most successful clubs in Saudi Arabia.

2008- Jamaican sprinter Usain Bolt sets a new world record in the 100 meter dash at the Beijing Olympics, completing the event in 9.69 seconds. That win was just the tip of the iceberg for Bolt in Beijing, as he would go on to set records in both the 200 meter dash and 4×100 meter dash at a later point in the games. Bolt’s 100 meter dash record only stood for about a season, with Bolt lowering the time to 9.58 seconds exactly one year later, which remains the record to this day.

2022- The Philadelphia Phillies defeat the Cincinnati Reds 11-4, giving Philadelphia its 10,000th win in franchise history. The Phillies became just the ninth team in MLB history to reach the 10,000 win mark, joining the Giants, Dodgers, Cubs, Cardinals, Braves, Reds, Pirates, and Yankees. However, it took a lot of losing seasons in order to get there, with the Phillies also becoming the first team in MLB history to reach 10,000 losses back in 2007.

1. Chris Godwin (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

2. Aaron Rodgers

3. Villanova (1985), Butler (2011)