In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 9-6

Over/Under Predictions: 5-9-1

Run Line Predictions: 6-9

Featured Matchup: 1-0

There are many NCAA Football games scheduled to take place throughout this afternoon and evening. Our model has predictions for 16 of today’s matchups.

Penn State @ Illinois

Model Predicts- Penn State ML, OVER 48, Penn State -14

The Penn State Nittany Lions will hit the road for the first time this season when they take on the Fighting Illini of Illinois.

Penn State enters this matchup a perfect 2-0, defeating West Virginia and Delaware to begin the year. Meanwhile, Illinois sits at 1-1, picking up a win against Toledo and losing to Kansas.

The last time these two teams squared off we were treated with nine overtimes and an Illinois victory, but our model likes the Nittany Lions to take the win on the road. Let’s dive into why that is and see our model’s best bet for this matchup.

Penn State

• +79 point differential through two weeks

  • Beat West Virginia 38-15 and Delaware 63-7

• Led by QB Drew Allar

  • Has completed 78.2% of his pass attempts and owns 183 QB Rating. Ranks in top-20 of NCAA in both categories

  • Pushes ball down field in chunks- 9.6 yards per attempt

• However, larger emphasis put on run game than the pass

  • 8th in rush attempts per game (47.5) and 15th in rush yards per game (230.5). Has run ball on 61% of plays

  • Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton split backfield- have combined for 271 yards and 5 TDs

• Not very explosive offense, but is efficient

  • 59% success rate on all downs

Illinois

• Beat Toledo by two, lost to Kansas by 11

• Struggles to defend the run

  • Ranks 124th in rush yards allowed per game (224), 108th in yards per rush attempt (5.2)

• Poor offensive line play

  • Allowed 8 sacks through two games. Bad news against a Penn State team that has 7 sacks this season

• Mobility of quarterback Luke Altmyer has helped ease the offensive line struggles

  • At least 69 rush yards in both games this season. Eclipsed 200 yards passing in both outings as well

  • Doesn’t throw ball down field though- Only one completion longer than 30 yards this season

What’s the Play?

The Nittany Lions are the far superior team in today’s matchup, and as a result we agree with our model that Penn State can cover the spread on the road this afternoon.

The two-headed monster of Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton was tough to stop last season, and their success in the run game has continued in 2023. We expect Penn State to hit the ground running with those two again against a weak rush defense, and if needed can utilize an efficient quarterback in Allar to move the ball down the field.

Penn State has the advantage on both sides of the ball and will likely take control of the line of scrimmage from the opening snap. Covering the 14-point spread is well within the realm of possibility.

The Play: Penn State -14 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Mississippi State- 2-0 overall this season, 2-0 as the home team

• Tennessee- 2-0 overall this season, 6-2 against conference opponents in 2022 (Play SEC rival Florida today)

• Colorado- 2-0 overall this season, 1-0 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Alabama- Over is 2-0 this season, 2-0 against non-conference opponents

• Georgia Tech- Over is 2-0 this season

• Michigan- Under is 2-0 this season, 2-0 as the home team

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Penn State- 2-0 against the spread (ATS) this season, 4-0 ATS as road favorite in 2022

• Hawaii- 2-1 ATS this season, 4-2 ATS as road underdog in 2022

💪 Buchner likely to start at QB for Alabama. Alabama is set to make a change at quarterback, with sophomore Tyler Buchner expected to take the starting role over Jalen Milroe for their upcoming game against South Florida. Buchner, who transferred from Notre Dame earlier this year, has been leading the first-team practices and is poised to step into the starting position. Milroe, who started the first two games, faced challenges, including two interceptions in the recent loss to Texas, prompting this quarterback switch.

🐢 Maryland overcomes slow start to beat Virginia. The Maryland Terrapins found themselves trailing by two touchdowns early in the first half of their matchup against Virginia, plagued by defensive breakdowns and offensive struggles. However, a remarkable turnaround in the second half saw the Terrapins score touchdowns on four of their first five possessions and intercepting Cavaliers quarterback Anthony Colandrea three times, securing a convincing 42-14 victory. This win extended Maryland's winning streak to five games, including 11 consecutive non-conference victories.

🏈 Deion Sanders has no desire to coach in NFL. Colorado coach Deion Sanders has expressed his commitment to remaining in his coaching role at the college level, dispelling any notion of a potential move to the NFL. Sanders emphasized his love for coaching college football, citing the impressionable nature of young athletes and their receptiveness to coaching. He also stated that he enjoys living in Boulder, which make senes as the town was voted the 4th best place to live in the United States.

There are 16 MLB games scheduled to take place throughout this afternoon and evening. However, due to lines being unavailable at the time the model was run, our model has predictions for 14 of today’s matchups.

Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals

Model Predicts- Astros ML, OVER 9, Royals +1.5

The Houston Astros and Kansas City Royals will square off in Game 2 of a three-game series on Saturday evening.

Despite being the worse team by a landslide, the Royals picked up a victory last night, defeating the Astros 4-2. The win was the third straight for Kansas City, while the loss was the third in the last four games for the Astros.

Kansas City has nothing left to play for as their playoff hopes went out the window months ago, but our model likes the Royals to keep things close once again this afternoon. Let’s dive into why that is and see our model’s best bet for this matchup.

Houston Astros

• Continue to be one of best hitting teams in baseball

  • Rank 1st in wRC+ (130) and OPS (.842) since September 1st

  • Have hit 25 home runs this month- tied for second most in MLB

• Not getting much offensive production outside of home runs though

  • Own .283 BABIP in September, the 11th lowest mark in majors

• Offensive production has cratered over last 4 games

  • wRC+ has fallen to 68 while BABIP sits at .221 (FanGraphs)

• J.P. France (11-5 record, 3.61 ERA) will get start on mound tonight

  • Owns 8.53 ERA and 1.95 WHIP in last four starts

  • Struggles to generate swings and misses- 17.8% Strikeout rate and 22.5% Whiff rate

  • Owns 4.94 xERA against a 3.61 actual ERA, showing that more regression is in store

Kansas City Royals

• Offense has caught fire and hasn’t looked back

  • Rank 7th in wRC+ (119), 3rd in BABIP (.334), and 5th in OPS (.818) since September 1st

  • Has led to 5.77 runs per game

• Have kept offensive momentum going over last four games

  • 112 wRC+ (9th), .367 BABIP (1st), and .356 on base % (5th)

  • 3-1 overall in that time with +5 run differential

• Cole Ragans (6-4 record, 3.01 ERA) will start on the mound

  • Slowly turning into one of the best pitchers in MLB

  • 0.74 ERA and 0.58 WHIP in last 4 starts

  • Ranks in top 12% of majors in Strikeout rate (29.7%) and Barrel rate (4.8%). Owns 2.83 xERA, which shows that he has gotten slightly unlucky despite great performances.

What’s the Play?

On paper the Houston Astros are the far better team, but we agree with our model that the Royals will stay competitive in this one.

Cole Ragans is already one of the league’s elite pitchers, and it gives the Royals a massive advantage today. Yes, Houston is hot at the plate, but Ragans’ ability to pile on strikeouts and keep balls off the barrel makes it very difficult to score runs.

Meanwhile, J.P. France can’t seem to keep opposing hitters off the bases, which is bad news against a Royals offense that has been one of the best in the league this month.

We saw Kansas City pull off the upset last night, and that isn’t totally out of the cards today. However, we’ll stick with them on the run line.

The Play: Royals +1.5 (-120)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Tampa Bay Rays- 92-57 overall this season, 42-32 as the away team, 8-2 in last 10 games

• Cincinnati Reds- 77-72 overall this season, 41-33 as the away team

• Philadelphia Phillies- 80-67 overall this season, 37-36 as the away team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Toronto Blue Jays- Under is 77-63-8 this season, 39-29-5 as the home team

• Baltimore Orioles- Over is 75-61-11 this season, 25-20-1 against division opponents (Play AL Easy rival Tampa Bay today)

• Los Angeles Angels- Over is 74-65-9 this season, 36-35-2 as the home team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Baltimore Orioles- Run line is 88-59 overall this season, 46-19 as an underdog

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com.

😬 Ohtani clears out locker at Angel Stadium. Shohei Ohtani has reportedly emptied his locker following the Los Angeles Angels' disappointing 11-2 loss to the Detroit Tigers. The Angels have yet to provide any official information regarding this situation, but are expected to address it tomorrow. Ohtani, who has been sidelined since September 3 due to an oblique injury and a torn UCL, had been labeled as day-to-day by Angels manager Phil Nevin, but the clearing of his locker suggests a potential conclusion to his tenure with the team.

⬆️ Rays jump into tie at top of AL East. Zac Eflin took a no-hitter into the sixth inning as the Tampa Bay Rays secured a 7-1 victory over the Baltimore Orioles last night. Eflin, with a 15-8 record, became the American League's first 15-game winner, throwing seven innings with just one hit and one run while striking out eight. Tampa Bay now sits in a virtual tie for first place in the American League East, with tomorrow’s game against Baltimore deciding who will take the lead in the division.

🟥 Phillies hand Cardinals first losing season in 16 years. Nick Castellanos delivered a pivotal three-run homer, propelling the Philadelphia Phillies, who currently lead the NL wild-card race, to a 5-4 victory over the St. Louis Cardinals. Phillies' starting pitcher Aaron Nola held a 4-0 lead before being replaced after the 4 2/3 innings, allowing seven hits and two earned runs, while Cardinals pitcher Zack Thompson allowed 4 runs in his five innings on the mound. The win was the 80th of the season for Philadelphia, and it secured the Cardinals' first losing season since 2007.

The University of Iowa has earned the nickname “Tight End University” for the amount of NFL tight ends it has produced over the years.

We’ve given you the year that the last five Iowa tight ends were drafted and the NFL team that selected them, and it is your job to guess who each player is. As always, answers are at the end of the newsletter.

Anyone know what has happened on September 16th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On September 16th…

1993- MLB legend Dave Winfield records his 3,000th career hit against the Oakland Athletics. The hit moved Winfield into 19th on the all-time list, solidifying himself as one of the greatest hitters the league has ever seen. He would end his career with 3,110 hits, ranking him 23rd on the all-time list.

2000- MLB legend Sammy Sosa becomes the third player in MLB history to hit 50 home runs in three consecutive seasons. Sosa joined Mark McGwire and Babe Ruth on the list, which are still the only three players to have accomplished the feat. Sosa would finish his career with 609 home runs, the ninth most all-time.

2018- Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes sets and NFL record for touchdown passes thrown in the first two weeks of the season. Mahomes would throw 10 TD passes across the first two games of the 2018 season, with 4 coming against the Chargers and 6 against the Steelers. Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, and Charley Johnson all previously shared the record with 9 TDs.

2014- C.J. Fiedorowicz

2017- George Kittle

2019 (Lions)- T.J. Hockenson

2019 (Broncos)- Noah Fant

2023- Sam LaPorta