In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were no model predictions yesterday, November 1, 2023.

There is one NFL game set to take place today, with that matchup featuring the Tennessee Titans and Pittsburgh Steelers. You can find our model’s predictions for that matchup below.

Tennessee Titans @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Model Predicts- Titans ML, OVER 37, Titans +3

The Tennessee Titans will hit the road for the first of three times in November, with the first stop coming in Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers.

Tennessee ended the month of October with a bang, defeating Atlanta 28-23 in what was Will Levis’ first appearance with the team. On the other hand, Pittsburgh suffered a 20-10 loss to the Jaguars to end the month.

Not everyone is buying into the Will Levis hype, but our model certainly is. Let’s take a look at why that is and see our model’s best bet for tonight’s game.

Tennessee Titans

• Tannehill injured, now led by Will Levis at QB

  • 19/29 passing, 234 yards, 4 TDs in his first start

  • Showed willingness to throw deep- 11.76 aDOT (average depth of target)

• Offense went back to ground game last week

  • Ran ball on 53.73% of plays- average 45.25% for season

  • Derrick Henry- 22 carries, 101 yards (4.6 yards/attempts)

  • Did so against Falcons defense that ranks 1st in EPA/rush and 9th in success rate

• Defense is still biggest question mark

  • 24th in EPA/play, surrendering 362.6 yards per game

Pittsburgh Steelers

• Can’t get consistent play from Kenny Pickett or run game

  • Pickett left last week’s game early. Ranks 28th in EPA/play and 31st in success rate. Has thrown 1 TD pass in last 96 pass attempts

  • Generate just 79.7 yards per game on the ground

• Defense is great up front, but can be exposed

  • Rank 7th in sacks per game (3.1)

  • Rank 27th in opponent yards per rush attempt (4.5), 25th in yards per pass attempt (7.1)

  • Allowing 400.1 yards per game

  • Will be without Minkah Fitzpatrick (Hamstring), but get Cameron Heyward back

What’s the Play?

A short week after a huge performance likely means we will see some regression from Will Levis. However, we expect Tennessee to still keep this game close.

Pittsburgh’s offense is easily bottom five in the NFL this season, largely because Kenny Pickett can’t make things happen. Pittsburgh struggles to make plays on the ground too, making the offense one of the least intimidating groups in the NFL, even against a Titans defense that has been far from impressive.

Levis is going to make some mistakes and face more pressure this week, but seeing Tennessee go back to the run last week clearly took pressure of the young QB, and we will likely see that be the game plan once again against a Steelers team that can be had on the ground. We’ll take the Titans on the spread here.

The Play: Titans +3 (-120)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Tennessee Titans- 3-4 overall this season, 3-3 as an underdog

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• None applicable to model predictions. Under has favored both teams this season

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Tennessee Titans- 4-3 against the spread (ATS) this season, 29-18-1 ATS as an underdog under Mike Vrabel

😬 Raiders bench Jimmy Garoppolo. Las Vegas Raiders' interim management, consisting of Champ Kelly and Antonio Pierce, announced Aidan O'Connell as the new starting quarterback, replacing the often-injured Jimmy Garoppolo. The decision has garnered positive support from the team, fostering enthusiasm among the players. The change comes in the wake of a challenging season, with the Raiders struggling both in terms of performance and culture, following the dismissals of Josh McDaniels and Dave Ziegler.

💪 Cam Heyward set to return for Steelers on TNF. The Pittsburgh Steelers are set to welcome back key defensive tackle Cameron Heyward just in time for a challenging matchup against Derrick Henry and the Tennessee Titans. Heyward, who had been sidelined with a groin injury since Week 1, was activated from the injured reserve and is expected to play without any injury designation. His return bolsters the Steelers' run defense, which has struggled in his absence, and his presence is highly valued by his teammates, who view him as a game-changing force on the field.

After busy day yesterday, the NBA has provided us with just three games today. You can find our model’s predictions for those three matchups below.

Detroit Pistons @ New Orleans Pelicans

Model Predicts- Pelicans ML, UNDER 219, Pistons +7.5

The Detroit Pistons will travel south to Louisiana on Thursday to battle the New Orleans Pelicans.

Detroit enters tonight’s matchup fresh off a loss to the Portland Trail Blazers last night, moving the team’s record to 2-3 this season. Meanwhile, New Orleans took home a 110-106 win last night against the Oklahoma City Thunder and now sit at 3-1.

For the most part, both Detroit and New Orleans have remained competitive this season, but injuries to both teams have forced our model to predict a low-scoring contest. Let’s dive into why that is.

Detroit Pistons

• Team has some great pieces on offense, but have had sub-par start

  • Rank 17th in Offensive Rating (107.7)

  • Have presence on perimeter and inside- shooting 40.1% from three and averaging 50.0 points per game in the paint

• Injuries have been the cause for slow offense

  • Monte Morris, Bojan Bogdanovic, and Isaiah Livers have yet to play this season

  • Jalen Duren and Alec Burks both sat last night and are questionable today

• Defense has improved tremendously

  • 106.5 Defensive Rating this season, compared to 117.8 a season ago

New Orleans Pelicans

• Team is offensively challenged, to say the least

  • 102.7 Offensive Rating ranks 29th in NBA through four games

  • Shooting 43.1% from the floor overall and 31.5% from behind the arc, per NBA.com

• Lack of bench depth is a concern

  • Rank 28th in bench points per game (24.5). Shooting 36.9% overall and 28.8% from three

  • Three starters, C.J. McCollum, Zion Williamson, and Brandon Ingram, average 63.9% of teams points

• Great defense again this season

  • 104.7 Defensive Rating- 5th best in NBA

What’s the Play?

Despite the 3-1 start, New Orleans has been far from impressive on offense, and although Detroit has a ton of potential, the Pistons have yet to put everything together. As a result, we’ll back the under in this game.

The lack of bench scoring is the Pelicans’ biggest flaw, and could be the reason they lose this game. To make matters worse, Brandon Ingram has missed the last two games and is questionable again tonight, leaving a huge chunk of the team’s scoring off the floor against a surprisingly solid Pistons defense.

It’s likely we see the Pistons’ offense turn things around once the group gets healthy, but until then we should expect a low-scoring output. This is a great spot to back the under.

The Play: Under 219 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• New Orleans Pelicans- 3-1 overall this season, 1-1 as the home team

• Utah Jazz- 2-3 overall this season, 2-1 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Detroit Pistons- Under is 3-2 this season with average total of 216.4

• New Orleans Pelicans- Under is 3-1 this season with average total of 211.5

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Utah Jazz- 3-2 against the spread (ATS) this season, 2-1 ATS as the home team

☘️ Celtics score 155 points against Pacers. The Boston Celtics scored an impressive 155 points last night against the Indiana Pacers, a feat they hadn't achieved since the days of their old Boston Garden. Jayson Tatum led the way with 30 points and 12 rebounds, helping the Celtics to a 155-104 victory. The team's dominant performance, with eight players scoring in double figures, highlighted their versatility and marked their second consecutive blowout win following a 126-107 win against the Washington Wizards on Monday.

🐺 Timberwolves hand Nuggets first loss of season. The Minnesota Timberwolves handed the defending NBA champion Denver Nuggets their first loss of the season, winning 110-89 in a rematch of their first-round playoff series from the last spring. Anthony Edwards led the way with 24 points, supported by Karl-Anthony Towns with 21 points and strong defense against Nikola Jokic. The Timberwolves showcased their maturity with a solid performance, going 26 for 27 from the foul line and maintaining their lead from start to finish, while the Nuggets struggled, shooting just 6 for 33 from beyond the arc.

After a slow last two days, the NHL has blessed us with 12 games today. Our model’s predictions for all 12 matchups can be found below.

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Boston Bruins

Model Predicts- Bruins ML, UNDER 6, Maple Leafs +1.5

The Toronto Maple Leafs will make their way to the United States on Thursday to battle the Boston Bruins.

Toronto enters tonight’s matchup with a 5-3-1 record following a 4-1 loss to the Kings on Tuesday, good enough for 5th in the Atlantic division. Meanwhile, Boston sits in first in the Atlantic with a nearly perfect record at 8-0-1.

Divisional battles are almost always tightly contested, and our mode projects Boston to win a close one here. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Toronto Maple Leafs

• Offense is getting chances to score, but rarely converting in 5-on-5 situations

  • 1.97 GF/60 ranks 24th in NHL. Most of scoring is being down on power play, where Toronto converts 31.3% of the time

  • Average 7th most shots on goal per game (33.2)

• Defense has struggled with allowing pressure on net

  • Rank 24th in High-Danger Chances Against per 60 minutes (HDCA/60) in 5-on-5 with 12.22

• Starting goalie- Ilya Samsonov

  • .864 Save % and .632 High-Danger Save % in 5-on-5

  • -5.7 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx). Ranks 68th out of 69 in category

Boston Bruins

• Defense is once again the team’s best feature

  • Rank 2nd in GA/60 in 5-on-5 situations (1.37)

  • xGA/60 sits at 2.43, signaling regression is coming, but that number ranks 8th in NHL

• Tremendous at limiting pressure near crease and while shorthanded

  • 10.94 HDCA/60 in 5-on-5 situations

  • Have killed 97.3% of power plays this season- Most in NHL

• Starting goalie- Jeremy Swayman

  • .960 Save % and .920 High-Danger Save % in 5-on-5

  • Ranks 1st in GSAx (+7.5)

What’s the Play?

Toronto hasn’t been able to generate much offense in 5-on-5 situations this season, and that is likely to continue tonight against a great Bruins defense. As a result, we’ll take Boston on the money line here.

The advantage that Boston has in net is massive, so massive that the Bruins essentially have the best goalie in the league and will go against the worst tonight in Samsonov. Toronto’s vulnerability to pressure near the crease likely won’t dissipate this evening, which puts a struggling goalie like Samsonov in an incredibly tough position.

The Maple Leafs have relied on the power play for offense, but scoring against Boston while having the man advantage has been nearly impossible this year. Our model think the Bruins should be -136 favorites, so we’ll grab them at -120.

The Play: Bruins ML (-120)

Money Line Trends 💰

• New York Rangers- 7-2 overall this season, 1-1 as the home team

• Boston Bruins- 8-0-1 overall this season, 4-0-1 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Boston Bruins- Under is 7-2 this season with average total of 4.78 goals

• Edmonton Oilers- Over is 4-3-1 this season with average total of 6.75 goals

Puck Line Trends ➕➖

• Winnipeg Jets- Puck line is 5-4 this season

⭐️ Stars hand Flames sixth straight loss. The Dallas Stars secured a 4-3 victory on Wednesday night against the Clagary Flames, with goals from Jason Robertson, Evgenii Dadonov, and Mason Marchment helping secure the win. Jamie Benn contributed with a goal and an assist as well, helping Dallas extend its impressive season record to 6-1-1. Stars' goalie Jake Oettinger made a remarkable 43 saves in the effort, one that marked the sixth consecutive defeat for Calgary.

😬 Senators part ways with GM Pierre Dorion. Pierre Dorion has been relieved of his role as the Ottawa Senators' general manager, and President of hockey operations Steve Staios will serve as the interim GM. The decision to part ways with Dorion came after the team was penalized by the NHL for an invalidated trade with the Anaheim Ducks in 2022 involving Evgenii Dadonov.. The Senators will now have to decide which season they will forfeit their first-round draft choice as part of the penalty, and Staios is tasked with finding a new general manager to instill stability and confidence in the team during a turbulent start to the season.