In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions and making it a 3-star play. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 5-3

Over/Under Predictions: 2-6

Run Line Predictions: 5-3

3-star Predictions: 0-1

❌ Draymond Green declines player option, will test free-agency. The Golden State Warriors trio of Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green have been together since 2012, but it appears there is a chance that the group splits this offseason. Per Shams Charania, Draymond Green intends to decline his $27.5 million player option for the 2023-24 season, clearing the way for Green to become an unrestricted free-agent. However, new Warriors general manager Mike Denleavy has come out and said that Golden State would like to sign Draymond to a new deal before the season begins. Green has been with Golden State since being drafted out of Michigan State in 2012, winning four NBA titles and one Defensive Player of the Year award as a Warrior.

There are 15 MLB games scheduled to take place throughout this evening and into the late night. It is also a rare occasion where there are no gaps in the season data or odds not being posted, so our model has predictions for all 15 of today’s matchups.

Texas Rangers @ Chicago White Sox

Model Predicts- Rangers ML, OVER 8.5, Rangers -1.5

The Texas Rangers and Chicago White Sox will square off in Game 2 of a three-game series on Tuesday night in the south side of the Windy City.

Texas took Game 1 on Monday with a 5-2 victory. The win was Texas’ third in as many days, improving the Rangers’ overall record to 45-27 in 2023.

Meanwhile, last night’s loss was the seventh in the last ten games for the White Sox, dropping Chicago further down the AL Central standings.

The pitching matchup of Nathan Eovaldi and Dylan Cease has many books thinking this will be a tight game, but our model gives a massive advantage to the Rangers in this one. Will we see one of the best teams in baseball grab its fourth win in a row like the model says, or will the White Sox snap out of their slump and get back in the win column?

Texas Rangers

Jacob deGrom stole the headlines when he was signed by the Rangers in the offseason. Obviously a signing like that would make a ton of noise, however, the signing on Nathan Eovaldi (9-3 record, 2.59 ERA) has proven to be the better move for Texas.

Eovaldi has done nothing but dominate since signing with the Rangers following a decent 2022 season with the Red Sox. In just one year we have seen his ERA drop from 3.87 to 2.59, which has come about for a variety of reasons.

One reason for the improvement has been a bump in velocity. Eovaldi’s 4-seam fastball, his most commonly thrown pitch, came in at 95.7 mph in 2022 and has remained steady in 2023, but his split finger and cutter have each seen an increase of 0.5 mph or more. He is also throwing his cutter on 18.3% of pitches this season compared to just 10.3% in 2022, per Baseball Savant, showing an increase level of confidence in his high-velocity pitches.

The increased velocity has coincided with a rise in strikeout rate, with Eovaldi striking out 25.5% of hitters this season compared to 22.4% in 2022. His control has slipped away a bit, but his 5.3% walk rate still ranks Eovaldi in the top 11% of the majors this season.

Putting Eovaldi on the mound with a Rangers team that ranks first in the MLB in runs per game and third in OPS is often a lethal combo, so it shouldn’t come as much of a surprise that Texas is 9-5 this season when Eovaldi gets the start.

Chicago White Sox

The Chicago White Sox began the 2023 season a miserable 8-21 through the team’s first 29 games. The Sox have turned things around since then, going 23-22 overall, but there still isn’t much for White Sox fans to be excited about.

The problems oftentimes begin at the plate. According to Fangraphs, Chicago enters today’s matchup with an 86 wRC+, putting the White Sox in the bottom three of the major leagues. Chicago is also striking out at a concerning clip, going down on strikes in 23.4% of at-bats in 2023, up from 20.7% in 2022.

Even when the Sox manages to make contact with the baseball, not much damage is ever done. Baseball Savant has Chicago listed with a 38.2% Hard Hit rate this season, well below the MLB average of 39.8%. The White Sox are also failing to size up opposing pitchers, posting a 7.8% Barrel rate through 74 games.

There has clearly been a decline at the plate this season, and to make matters worse, Dylan Cease (3-3 record, 4.31 ERA), today’s starting pitcher, has seen a decline in performance in 2023 as well.

Cease’s 4.31 ERA is nearly double what it was in 2022 (2.20). The cause of that isn’t exactly clear, but seeing his Hard Hit rate rise to 47.2% this season from 31.7% in 2022 has certainly played a role. Cease has also seen his strikeout rate fall 4.2% while simultaneously seeing his Barrel rate rise 1.7%, further proving that he is not nearly as sharp as he was in 2022.

What’s the Play?

If there is one thing that Dylan Ceases has going for him it is that he has pitched well in the month of June. Cease owns a 2.22 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP this month, dramatic improvements from his season-long numbers.

However, Cease will go up against a Rangers offense tonight that has been dominant in 2023, especially against right-handed pitchers. Texas owns the second-best wRC+ in the majors against righties at 118, and according to ESPN is batting .266 with a .788 OPS against right-handers.

Meanwhile, Chicago ranks 29th in wRC+ against righties while posting a .229 batting average and .664 OPS. Its’s likely we see them struggle today against Eovaldi.

Cease has been great on the mound this month, but we think that recency bias is creeping its way into the line for this game. Our model thinks the Rangers should be a -200 favorite, so we’ll gladly grab them on the money line, which can be found for as low as -125 at some places.

3-star play: Rangers ML (-135)

Money Line Trends💰

• Miami Marlins- 42-31 overall this season, 22-13 as the home team

• Texas Rangers- 45-27 overall this season, 21-14 as the away team

• Arizona Diamondbacks- 44-29 overall this season, 21-11 as the away team, 11-6 as a road underdog

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Colorado Rockies- Under is 43-32 overall, 25-15 as the away team

• Texas Rangers- Over is 40-28-4 this season, 18-17 as the away team

• Los Angeles Dodgers- Over is 40-27-5 this season, highest winning percentage in MLB this season

Run Line Trends➕➖

• Texas Rangers- Run line is 46-25 overall this season, 9-7 as an away favorite

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com.

💨 A Monday full of blowout victories. Many MLB teams failed to show up to begin the week, going down early and never catching back up. Four of yesterday’s ten matchups had one team score one run or less, and seven matchups saw a margin of victory that was three runs or more. Only one team, the Colorado Rockies, managed to keep the scoring deficit to just one run, but hopefully today’s matchups will be much more exciting.

5️⃣ Arraez has another five-hit night, brings batting average back to .400. Miami Marlins second baseman Luis Arraez has been having a dominant season at the plate in 2023, most recently posting a five-hit performance in Miami’s 11-0 win over Toronto on Monday. It wasn’t the flashiest of performances as all of his hits were singles, but it was the second five-hit game for Arraez in the last three games, bringing his season batting average back to .400 after seeing it drop to .388 prior to Monday’s matchup. Ted Williams is the only player in MLB history to bat above .400 in a season, but Arraez is putting himself in the running to become the second as we approach the halfway mark of the 2023 season.

💪 Joey Votto returns to the diamond for Cincinnati. The Cincinnati Reds were the hottest team in baseball entering the week, winning eight straight games. The Reds extended that win streak to nine with a 5-4 victory over the Rockies last night, and the return of Joey Votto was a big reason why. The highlights of Votto’s return were the home run he sent into the right field bleachers, the 343rd of his career, and his go-ahead single in the sixth inning to give the Reds a 5-4 lead. Votto underwent surgery on his rotator cuff and biceps last season, but appears to be fully healthy following a two-hit, 3 RBI performance.

🤝 Dalvin Cook wants to team up with DeAndre Hopkins. Former Minnesota Vikings running back Dalvin Cook was released by Minnesota a short time ago, becoming a free-agent after six years with the team. Another big name, DeAndre Hopkins, was released by the Arizona Cardinals a few weeks prior, and now Cook has come out and said that he would love to be on the same sideline as Hopkins in 2023. “If we end up on the same roster, that would be something epic for the NFL,” Cook said on The Adam Schefter Podcast. Hopkins has already had visits with the Tennessee Titans and New England Patriots, but Cook has yet to make reservations with a team as he does not want to rush the free-agency process.

🤬 Stefon Diggs frustrated with his role in Buffalo. Stefon Diggs skipped out on the first day of Bills mandatory minicamp last week, causing tons of speculation about his future with the team. Things simmered down when he reported to the facility the next day, but Ben Volin of the Boston Globe reports that the issues between Diggs and Buffalo have not gone away. The three-time Pro Bowler is apparently frustrated with his role on the team, mainly due to his lack of say in the play-calling. If you remember, Diggs was seen yelling at Josh Allen on the sideline during a 27-10 loss to the Bengals this past postseason, ending when Diggs stormed off the field and out of the locker room. It appears that frustration has carried over into the start of the 2023 season, causing lots of tension early on in Buffalo.

🐊 Florida lands a five-star defensive lineman. The Florida Gators added some talent to their defensive line yesterday, with five-star defensive end Jamonta Waller announcing his commitment to the program on Monday. Per ESPN, Waller is the No.3 defensive end and No.16 overall recruit in the Class of 2024, making him the sixth top-100 prospect to commit to the Gators. Waller chose Florida over Auburn and Penn State.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- The NBA hands out several awards at the end the of regular season, two of which are the Sixth Man of the Year award and Most Improved Player award. Several players have won each award over the years, but only one player has won both in the same season. Who was that player?

Question #2- Before moving to Los Angeles, the Dodgers called Brooklyn, New York their home. The “Dodgers” name stuck with the team, and it was originally created if reference to “dodging” ________ throughout the city of Brooklyn?

Question #3- Robert Griffin III took the NFL by storm his rookie season, setting a rookie NFL record with a 102.4 passer rating. That record would only last a few seasons though, eventually being broken by a quarterback that posted a 104.9 passer rating in his rookie season. Who is that quarterback?

Anyone know what has happened on June 20th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On June 20th…

1936- Jesse Owens sets the 100 meter dash World Record, completing the event in just 10.2 seconds. What makes the feat more remarkable is that Owens was still a student at Ohio State University, setting the World Record at the 1936 NCAA National Championships. That record would be the catalyst for an historic summer for Owens, who would go on to win four Olympic gold medals in the 1936 Olympics in Berlin just two months later.

1950- New York Yankees legend Joe DiMaggio records his 2,000th career hit in a 8-2 victory over the Cleveland Indians. DiMaggio was one of the more consistent hitters during his era of baseball, batting .325 for his career and recording 2,214 hits by the time he retired, ranking him 183rd in MLB history. He is also the owner of a 56-game hitting streak, which remains the MLB record to this day.

1993- The Chicago Bulls defeat the Phoenix Suns 99-98 in Game 6 of the NBA Finals, giving Chicago its third consecutive NBA title. The Bulls became just the second NBA team to win three NBA titles in a row, joining a Boston Celtics franchise that won eight championships in a row from 1959-1966. John Paxson sank the series-clinching three-pointer, and Michael Jordan won Finals MVP after averaging 41.0 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 6.3 assists in the series.

Our referral program is currently being migrated over from our old provider. You will eventually see your referral count here along with your unique code.

1. Darrell Armstrong

2. Trolleys

3. Dak Prescott