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There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 6-9

Over/Under Predictions: 5-10

Run Line Predictions: 10-5

Featured Matchup: 1-0

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15 MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all 15 matchups can be found below.

Baltimore Orioles @ Cleveland Guardians

Model Predicts- Guardians ML, UNDER 9, Guardians +1.5

The Baltimore Orioles and Cleveland Guardians will continue their four-game series on Saturday, with the first pitch of Game 3 scheduled to take place at 7:15 PM Eastern.

Baltimore has had its fair share of struggles thus far in the series, resulting in a loss in each of the first two contests. However, the Orioles still sit in first place in the AL East with a 65-46 record, while Cleveland’s dominance in the series pushed its record to a stellar 67-42.

Our model makes this game a coin flip, but it has spotted plenty of value on the total. Let’s dive into why that is.

Baltimore Orioles

• Have yet to win game in series

  • Outscored 10-3 in Game 1, 8-4 in Game 2

  • Now own 5-8 record in last 13 games

• Offense in series has been worst we’ve seen all season

  • Have posted a 45 wRC+, .200 BABIP, and .476 OPS across last two games

  • Has resulted in just seven runs scored and one home run

• Starting pitcher- Zach Eflin

  • Due for positive regression- 4.11 ERA vs 3.48 xERA

  • Elite command- 2.7% Walk rate ranks in top 2% of MLB

Cleveland Guardians

• Enter today on five-game win streak

  • One win over Phillies, two over Tigers, and two over Orioles

  • Own +21 run differential in that span

• Pitching staff has been elite during win streak

  • Starters- 2.92 ERA (3rd), .224 BABIP (4th), 45.7% Ground Ball rate (5th)

  • Relievers- 2.66 ERA (8th), .159 BABIP (1st), 57.8% Ground Ball rate (2nd)

• Starting pitcher- Joey Cantillo

  • Surrendered four hits and three runs in only start of season (3.1 innings)

What’s the Play?

Joey Cantillo is a bit of a wild card on the mound due to his limited innings, but we agree with our model that him and Zach Eflin can do enough to keep this total under nine.

One thing Cantillo did well during his first start of the season was produce ground balls, doing so at a rate of 50%, per Basbeall Savant. He also showed that he has solid stuff on the mound by posting a 31.8% Chase rate and 30.3% Whiff rate in that game, two more statistics that bode well against a struggling Baltimore offense.

Additionally, although Cleveland is red hot at the plate, several metrics point toward Eflin experiencing positive regression on the mound, and his ability to limit walks will help keep the Guardians’ hitters off the base paths.

Even if Cantillo struggles early, he has arguably the best bullpen in the MLB behind him to shut down Baltimore, and we’re confident Eflin can keep Cleveland in check at the plate. As a result, we’ll back the under here.

The Play: Under 9 (-120)

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Money Line Trends 💰

• Chicago Cubs- 54-58 overall this season, 29-25 as the home team, and 3-0 in last three games

• Cleveland Guardians- 67-42 overall this season, 8-2 in last ten games and 5-0 in last five games

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Atlanta Braves- Under is 64-40-5 this season, highest win percentage in MLB (61.5%)

• New York Mets- Over is 58-48-3 this season, 29-17-3 as the away team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Los Angeles Angels- Run line is 60-50 this season, 25-17 as a home underdog

💪 Blake Snell throws no-hitter vs Reds. San Francisco Giants pitcher Blake Snell threw a no-hitter against the Cincinnati Reds, striking out 11 batters in a 3-0 win. This achievement marks the 18th no-hitter in Giants history and the first in Snell's career. Notably, Snell is the fifth reigning Cy Young winner to accomplish this feat, joining an elite group that includes Sandy Koufax and Clayton Kershaw.

😬 Twins hand White Sox 18th consecutive loss. Royce Lewis hit a home run and had four RBIs, leading the Minnesota Twins to a 10-2 victory over the Chicago White Sox, who suffered their 18th consecutive loss. The White Sox, outscored 112-39 during this skid, managed only three hits, including a home run by Miguel Vargas. Joe Ryan earned the win for the Twins, allowing three hits and striking out seven in 6 1/3 innings, while Lewis's performance included a two-run homer and double.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- NBA shooting guard Norman Powell has played on three teams in his NBA career, the Toronto Raptors, Portland Trail Blazers, and Los Angeles Clippers. However, none of those teams are the team that drafted him out of UCLA in 2015. What team drafted Powell?

Question #2- Two NFL players have recorded the most sacks in a season at 22.5. Who are those two players?

Question #3- Stephen Curry owns the NBA record for career three-pointers made with 3,747. Which active NBA player is the closest to Curry on the list?

Anyone know what has happened on August 3rd throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

1930- Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Chuck Klein records a hit in his 26th straight game, his second 26-game hit streak of the season. Unfortunately, the star hitter would fail to stretch the streak to 27 games, seeing the streak come to an end after being held hitless in the second game of a doubleheader against the Boston Braves. Klein was a lethal hitter in each of his three stints in a Phillies uniform, posting a .320 career batting average, 2,076 hits, and 300 home runs before retiring.

1936- American sprinter Jesse Owens wins the 100 meter dash at the Berlin Olympics in Germany, completing the race in 10.3 seconds. The victory was just the tip of the iceberg for Owens, as he would go on to win three more gold medals in the long jump, 200 meter dash, and 4×100 meter relay. Prior to his Olympic champion status, Owens was a star at Ohio State University in Columbus, Ohio, where his gold medals can be seen on display today.

1989- The Cincinnati Reds set an MLB record for most hits in the 1st inning of a game, collecting 16 against the Houston Astros. Astros starting pitcher Jim Clancy failed to record an out in the inning while allowing six hits and seven runs, and Bob Forsche would surrender 10 hits and seven runs in relief. Cincinnati would go on to score 14 runs in the first inning of the matchup, ending the game with 26 hits in an 18-2 blowout victory.

1. Milwaukee Bucks

2. Michael Strahan and T.J. Watt

3. James Harden (third)