In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

Additional Model Predictions & Bonuses ⬇️

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There were no model predictions yesterday, July 28, 2024.

12 MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for 11 of those matchups can be found below.

New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies

Model Predicts- Phillies ML, UNDER 9, Yankees +1.5

The New York Yankees will continue their six-game road trip on Monday, with the next stop coming in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania to battle the Phillies in a three-game series.

New York started its road trip strong over the weekend, going into Fenway Park and grabbing two wins over the Red Sox. Those victories snapped a three-game losing streak for the Yankees, while the Phillies enter this series in a small slump after winning just three of their last ten games.

It appears the Yankees that have found their footing once again, but our model projects the Phillies to win tonight’s matchup, one that our model is expecting to be low scoring. Let’s take a look at why that is.

New York Yankees

• Enter tonight on two-game win streak

  • Both wins came against Red Sox

  • Outscored Boston 11-8 on Saturday and 8-2 on Sunday

• Offense has been best in MLB since All-Star break

  • Rank 1st in wRC+ (148), 7th in BABIP (.312), and 1st in OPS (.878)

  • 51 runs scored across nine games is third-most in MLB

• Starting pitcher- Luis Gil

  • Pitching to expectations- 3.10 ERA vs 3.28 xERA

  • Some command struggles (11.4% walk rate), but great at generating swings and misses (29.3% Whiff rate) and strikeouts (28.2% Strikeout rate)

Philadelphia Phillies

• Coming off series loss to Guardians

  • Outscored Cleveland 8-0 in Game 2, but lost 3-1 in Game 1 and 4-3 in Game 3

  • Now own 3-7 record in last ten games

• Normally strong offense has disappeared in recent weeks

  • Rank 20th in wRC+ (92), 23rd in BABIP (.260), and 21st in OPS (.686) in nine games since All-Star break

  • 35 runs scored in that span ranks 21st in MLB

• Starting pitcher- Zack Wheeler

  • Has been elite all season- 2.55 ERA vs 2.94 xERA

  • Ranks in top 11% of MLB in xBA (.204) and Hard Hit rate (31.7%)

What’s the Play?

The Yankees have been elite offensively since the All-Star break, but we agree with our model that Zack Wheeler can slow that offense down. As a result, we are going to back the under here.

Wheeler has been one of the more unhittable pitchers this season, and he has only gotten better as the season has gone on. He has surrendered two earned runs or less in his last five starts, a span of 31.2 innings, and allowed just one earned run in his last 12.0 innings against solid offenses in the Minnesota Twins and Los Angeles Dodgers.

However, Wheeler may not have much run support tonight due to the Phillies’ struggles at the plate and Luis Gil finding his footing on the mound again, allowing just three earned runs over his last 17.2 innings.

We expect a pitchers duel tonight between two great arms, making us believe a total of nine runs is too high for this matchup.

The Play: Under 9 (-115)

Money Line Trends 💰

• St. Louis Cardinals- 54-51 overall this season, 27-24 as the home team

• Atlanta Braves- 56-48 overall this season, 2-0 in last two games

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Philadelphia Phillies- Under is 54-46-5 this season, 29-23-3 as the home team

• Atlanta Braves- Under is 61-38-5 this season, highest win percentage in MLB (61.6%)

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Washington Nationals- Run line is 59-47 this season, 30-19 as a road underdog

🐻 Rays trade Paredes to Cubs for Morel and two prospects. The Tampa Bay Rays traded All-Star third baseman Isaac Paredes to the Chicago Cubs for third baseman Christopher Morel, right-handed reliever Hunter Bigge, and pitching prospect Ty Johnson. Cubs president Jed Hoyer emphasized the goal of adding controllable players to strengthen the team both now and in the future, highlighting Paredes’ proven bat and versatility. Morel, who has struggled this season, expressed a heartfelt goodbye to Chicago, while the Rays hope a change of scenery will unlock his potential; Bigge and Johnson are promising young pitchers added to the Rays' roster.

💪 Yankees take down Red Sox to win rivalry series. Carlos Rodón pitched into the seventh inning, and Gleyber Torres hit a two-run single in the first inning to help the New York Yankees secure an 8-2 win over the Boston Red Sox, marking their second series win in their last 12 attempts. The Yankees won the last two games of the series after losing the opener, with Aaron Judge contributing an RBI single following his standout performance on Saturday. Jazz Chisholm Jr. made his Yankees debut, while Boston's Rob Refsnyder and Connor Wong hit consecutive homers in the fourth, but Rodón’s strong performance and Oswaldo Cabrera’s two-run double in the eighth ensured New York's victory.

Today’s trivia requires you to go back to 2006. We’ve given you the logos of the top five home run hitters for the 2006 MLB season, and it is your job to guess all five players.

As always, answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Anyone know what has happened on July 29th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On July 29th…

1957- New York Yankees outfielder Mickey Mantle hits his 200th career home run in a 3-2 loss to the Detroit Tigers. Mantle was just one of two Yankees players to tally a hit on a day that saw very little offense from both sides, joining star catcher Yogi Berra in sending a baseball into the stands that day. Mantle would go on to more than double his home run total after reaching 200, retiring with 536 homers, a total that places the Hall of Fame outfielder 18th on the MLB’s all-time list.

1988- Philadelphia Phillies legend Mike Schmidt sets the National League record for games played at third base with 2,155. Schmidt would end his career with 2,212 appearances in the hot corner, the sixth-most in MLB history. Schmidt’s NL record is still standing, but the league’s current record is held by Baltimore Orioles third baseman Brooks Robinson with 2,870, all of which came in the American League.

1992- MLB legend Nolan Ryan strikes out his 100th batter for a 23rd consecutive season, the longest streak in MLB history. Arguably the most dominant pitcher in league history, Ryan set the record while playing for four different MLB teams across those 23 seasons, the New York Mets, California Angels, Houston Astros, and Texas Rangers. Ryan’s record still stands to this day, but he extended it to 24 after another dominant season in 1993, the last season of his career.

1. Ryan Howard

2. David Ortiz

3. Albert Pujols

4. Alphonso Soriano

5. Lance Berkman