In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were no model predictions yesterday, July 30, 2023.

Money Line Predictions: 0-0

Over/Under Predictions: 0-0

Run Line Predictions: 0-0

3-star Predictions: 0-0

💰 Danielle Hunter gets PAID by Minnesota. The Minnesota Vikings and edge rusher Danielle Hunter came to terms on a one-year, $20 million contract on Sunday, per Ian Rapoport. The deal comes after Hunter skipped mandatory minicamp earlier in the offseason over a dispute about his previous contract, which was set to pay the three-time Pro Bowler $4.9 million. Hunter’s deal includes $17 million guaranteed and a no-tag clause, a great deal for a guy who finished last season with 10.5 sacks, 12 tackles for loss, and 22 QB hits.

😬 Jonathan Taylor’s situation got even more murky over the weekend. Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor requested a trade from the Colts over the weekend, but new reports could make Taylor’s situation even more complex moving forward. According to ESPN’s Stephen Holder, the star running back suffered a back injury during an offseason workout before making the trade request, causing Taylor to fail a pre-training camp physical. As a result, Taylor could be placed on the non-football injury list, which would allow Indianapolis to withhold Taylor’s salary from him once the season begins. Taylor has amassed 3,841 rushing yards and 33 touchdowns in 43 career games, but it appears that Indianapolis has no plans of trading him or giving him an extension.

🤕 Injuries are piling up in Seattle’s backfield. The Seattle Seahawks have already seen the injury bug wander into the locker room, with the running backs taking a majority of the damage. Seahawks tailbacks Kenneth Walker III and rookie Zach Charbonnet have both missed practices early on, with Walker nursing a groin injury and Charbonnet, who was selected with the 52nd overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, working out some shoulder discomfort. The injuries are a massive blow to a talented backfield, one that saw Walker tally 1,050 yards and nine touchdowns last season as a rookie.

There are 10 MLB games scheduled to take place on Monday. However, due to lines being unavailable at the time the model was run, our model has predictions for nine of today’s matchups.

Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs

Model Predicts- Reds ML, OVER 8, Reds +1.5

The Cincinnati Reds will take their talents to the Windy City to begin a four-game series with the Chicago Cubs on Monday.

Cincinnati has had a stellar season up to this point, entering today’s matchup in first place in the NL Central with a 58-49 record. However, the Reds will have to go up against a Cubs team that is arguably the hottest team in baseball, one that has won 10 of its last 12 games.

Chicago’s resurgence has catapulted the Cubs above the .500 mark for the first time in several months, but last night’s 3-0 loss to the Cardinals brought their hot streak to an end. Will we see Cincinnati give the Cubs their second consecutive loss, or will Chicago bounce back against a division rival?

Cincinnati Reds

The Cincinnati Reds are beginning the back-end of a ten-game road trip on Monday, potentially making fatigue a factor in this one.

However, if yesterday’s 9-0 victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers has taught us anything, its that Cincinnati is ready to roll on the mound and at the plate despite traveling from the West Coast.

The Reds are 7-3 dating back to July 20th, a stretch in which the offense has been one of the best in baseball, particularly against right-handed pitching. According to FanGraphs, Cincinnati owns the 13th-highest wRC+ against righties since that date, which comes in at 109.

Additionally, we’ve seen the Reds post a .317 BABIP, .806 OPS, and .344 wOBA against righties in that same 10-game stretch. They rank in the top-10 in the major leagues in all three categories.

Andrew Abbott (6-2 record, 1.90 ERA) will be in charge of keeping Chicago off the base paths this evening in order for his team to build a lead, something that he has done quite well in his rookie season.

Abbott enters today on a 14.0 inning scoreless stroke, holding the Brewers and Giants to zero runs in his last two starts. His 27.8% strikeout rate and .212 xBA (expected batting average) put the 24-year old in the top 23% of the majors this season, a big reason why he has allowed more than two earned runs only twice in 10 starts this season.

Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs are back in the mix following a hot stretch that saw the Cubbies win eight of their last nine games. However, a lot of Chicago’s success has come against right-handed pitching, which it will not be facing today with Andrew Abbott on the mound for Cincinnati.

Right-handed pitchers have had no success against the Cubs since the All-Star Break, a stretch in which the Cubs have posted a 155 wRC+, .385 BABIP, and .935 OPS, per FanGraphs.

Unsurprisingly, the Cubs rank first in the MLB across all three categories, further showing how dominant this offense can be in the right situation.

However, Chicago has not had nearly as much luck against left-handed pitching during that same stretch, seeing its wRC+ drop to 90, its BABIP drop to .276, and OPS fall .700. Last night’s 3-0 loss to St. Louis was a prime example of their struggles against southpaws, a game in which Chicago collected just four hits against lefty Steven Matz, who owned a 4.35 ERA coming into the game.

To make matters worse, Marcus Stroman (10-7 record, 3.51 ERA) will get the start this evening. Stroman own a 7.99 ERA since July 1st, which has been made possible by allowing 16 hits, 11 earned runs, and six walks across his last two starts, which were both less than 4.0 innings.

What’s the Play?

This NL Central battle features two of the hottest teams in baseball, but Chicago’s struggles against lefties and Stroman’s issues on the mound are hard to ignore. As a result, we agree with our model that the Reds can pull out a win as a road underdog.

The biggest issue for Stroman is not keeping balls on the ground, something he was elite at prior to July. His ground ball rate this month comes in at 53.3%, down from 59.3% prior to July beginning, which coincides with a 4.5% increase in Hard Hit rate.

Abbott is vulnerable to allowing hard contact as well, but we feel much more comfortable riding the hot hand on the mound and a team that has performed much better situationally at the plate in recent weeks. Our model thinks the Reds should be favorites with odds right around -110, so we’ll back them on the money line at +100.

3-star play: Reds ML (+100)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Tampa Bay Rays- 64-44 overall this season, 18-13 against division opponents (Play AL East rival New York tonight)

• Baltimore Orioles- 64-41 overall this season, 20-16 as a road underdog

• Cincinnati Reds- 58-49 overall this season, 7-3 in last ten games, 24-21 as a road underdog

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Cincinnati Reds- Over is 56-51 overall this season, 29-24 as the away team

• Chicago Cubs- Over is 54-46-5 this season, 29-20-4 as the home team

• San Diego Padres- Under is 57-42-7 this season, 26-22-4 as the away team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Baltimore Orioles- Run line is 63-42 overall this season, 27-9 as a road underdog

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com.

💪 Justin Verlander picks up 250th career win. New York Mets pitcher Justin Verlander picked up his 250th career win in a 5-2 victory over the Washington Nationals on Sunday. The 40-year-old right-hander pitched 5.1 innings in the game, allowing five hits and one run while striking out five to become the 49th player to reach the 250 win milestone. Verlander is now 4-1 with a 1.69 ERA in the month of July, but could be the next Mets pitcher to be traded after Max Scherzer and David Robertson were traded over the weekend.

⚾️ Cody Bellinger staying in Chicago. Per Jesse Rogers of ESPN, the Chicago Cubs have notified teams that Cody Bellinger is no longer on the trade block. The decision comes after Chicago won 11 of its first 15 games coming out of the All-Star break, which Bellinger played a key role in. The 28-year-old and former National League MVP signed a one-year, $17.5 million deal with Chicago during the offseason, and it has paid dividends as Bellinger is batting .314 with 15 home runs and 46 RBIs.

⛳️ Lee Hodges wins 3M Open, earns first PGA Tour victory of his career. Lee Hodges (-24) took home first place at the 3M Open in Blaine, Minnesota on Sunday, giving the 28-year-old his first PGA Tour victory of his career. Hodges dominated the field all week long, defeating Martin Laird, Kevin Streelman, and JT Poston by seven strokes following a 4-under par round on Sunday, which was highlighted by two birdies and two eagles. Hodges also set the 54-hole tournament record at 193 strokes, helping propel him from 74th to 33rd in the FedEx Cup standings.

💰 Jack McBain signs two-year deal with Coyotes. The Arizona Coyotes and forward Jack McBain have reportedly come to terms on a two-year $3.2 million deal, avoiding arbitration in the process. McBain’s arbitration hearing was set to take place on Sunday, but the two sides came to a deal at the buzzer to keep the 23-year-old in Arizona for the next few seasons. McBain, who played four seasons at Boston College before turning pro, tallied 12 goals and 26 points last season as a rookie with the Coyotes.

🏎 Max Verstappen wins Belgian Grand Prix. Formula 1 star Max Verstappen continued his unbeaten streak on Sunday, cruising to his 10th victory of the season at the Belgian Grand Prix. The win was also the eighth straight for Verstappen, who was followed closely by Red Bull teammate Sergio Perez in second. Red Bull has now won all 12 races to begin the season, the longest streak in Formula 1 history.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- As of the 2023 inductions, 271 former MLB players are in the Hall of Fame. Which team currently has the most players in the Baseball Hall of Fame?

Question #2- Three teams from the NFC and AFC qualify for a wild card spot in the postseason, giving them a chance to win the Super Bowl despite failing to win their division. Only seven wild card teams have ever won the Super Bowl, but what team was the first?

Question #3- Six players in NBA history have led their team in points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks during the regular season. Who was the most recent player to lead his team in all categories?

Anyone know what has happened on July 31st throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On July 31st…

1987- Baltimore Orioles third baseman Eddie Murray hits his 299th and 300th career home runs in an 8-4 win over the Texas Rangers. Murray’s homers came in the top of the first and ninth innings, both of which were two-run shots that helped Baltimore open and close the game. Murray would end his career with 504 home runs, the 28th most in MLB history, which he hit as a member of the Dodgers, Mets, Indians, and Angeles organizations in addition to the Orioles.

1990- Texas Rangers pitcher Nolan Ryan records his 300th career victory in an 11-3 blowout win over the Milwaukee Brewers. Ryan pitched a stellar 7.2 innings in what would become his 11th victory of the season, allowing six hits, three runs (one earned) and striking out eight batters along the way. Ryan became just the 20th pitcher in league history to reach the 300 win milestone, and he currently ranks 14th on the MLB’s all-time wins list with 324.

2012- American swimmer Michael Phelps becomes the greatest medal winner in Olympic history, winning his 19th career medal as a member of the winning American 4 × 200m freestyle relay. The win also gave Phelps his 15th gold medal. The swimmer would end his Olympic career, which began in 2004 at the age of 19, with 28 medals in all (23 gold), 10 more medals than any other Olympian.

1. New York Yankees

2. Oakland Raiders

3. Nikola Jokic