In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the NHL and MLB, with our model focusing in on two of those predictions in our Featured Matchups. Those predictions went 0-2 overall, and you can see how each of the models performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 2-1

Over/Under Predictions: 1-2

Puck Line Predictions: 1-2

Featured Matchup: 0-1

Money Line Predictions: 0-2

Over/Under Predictions: 2-0

Run Line Predictions: 1-1

Featured Matchup: 0-1

There are six NHL games set to take place all throughout tonight. You can see our model’s predictions for all six matchups below.

Colorado Avalanche @ Los Angeles Kings

Model Predicts- Avalanche ML, UNDER 6.5, Avalanche +1.5

The Colorado Avalanche and Los Angeles Kings will each take the ice for the first time this season on Wednesday night.

Colorado enters the year following a first-round playoff exit at the hands of the Seattle Kraken and looking to rebound from that surprise series loss. Los Angeles was also a first round exit last postseason, falling in six games to the Edmonton Oilers.

Colorado played rather poorly during the preseason, but our model still sees value on the Avalanche. Let’s dive into why that is and see our model’s best bet for today’s matchup.

Colorado Avalanche

• Riddled with injuries last season, and still have some lingering

  • Gabriel Landeskog and Pavel Francouz both on long-term IR

  • Andrew Cogliano listed as Day-to-Day, but is ”very close” to playing

• Offense wasn’t pretty in preseason

  • Ranked 32nd in GF/60 in 5-on-5 (1.3)

  • Still gave themselves tons of high percentage chances- 12.59 high-danger chances per 60 minutes in 5-on-5 was 3rd most

• Starting goalie- Alexandar Georgiev

  • +21.9 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) last season

  • Struggled in preseason- .873 Save %

Los Angeles Kings

• One of best defensive teams in NHL last year

  • 2.38 Expected Goals Allowed per 60 minutes (xGA/60)- 2nd in league

  • 10.85 high danger scoring chances allowed per 60 minutes in 5-on-5

• Made some solid offseason moves

  • Traded for Pierre-Luc DuBois (previously on Winnipeg)

  • Signed goalie Cam Talbot to one-year deal

• Starting goalie- Cam Talbot

  • Ranked 63rd in GSAx (-0.7) last season

  • Ranked 80th in overall Save % (.903). Posted .768 high-danger Save %

What’s the Play?

Both of these teams have some added motivation coming into the season after early playoff exits. However, we agree with our model that there is value on Colorado tonight.

Like most sports, preseason stats do not matter, regardless of how good or bad they are. Colorado’s were putrid, but neither Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon, nor Mikko Rantanen played in more than two games, and Cogliano didn’t suit up.

Cam Talbot has a long track record of struggling to defend high-danger shots, which Colorado has proven to generate with or without its stars on the ice. The Avs have the advantage in net and almost everywhere else on the ice, so we’ll back them to start the season 1-0.

The Play: Avalanche ML (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Boston Bruins- 65-12-5 overall last season, 34-4-3 as the home team

• Colorado Avalanche- 51-24-7 overall last season, 29-11-1 as the away team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Colorado Avalanche- Under was 42-34-6 last season with average total of 6.17 goals

• Edmonton Oilers- Over was 36-27-9 last season with average total of 7.13 goals

Puck Line Trends ➕➖

• Boston Bruins- Puck line was 46-36 overall last season

⚡️Lightning start season with win over Predators. Jonas Johansson made 28 saves in his first start as the Tampa Bay Lightning triumphed 5-3 against the Nashville Predators in the NHL regular-season opener. Johansson, displayed a composed and positional style of play in the absence of Andrei Vasilevskiy, earning praise from coach Jon Cooper. Brandon Hagel scored on a penalty shot and Nikita Kucherov and Nicholas Paul each notched two goals, giving Tampa Bay plenty of momentum before their next game against Detroit.

💪 Bedard makes several contributions in Chicago’s comeback win. Connor Bedard, the top pick in the 2023 draft, didn't score a goal in his NHL debut, but still managed to make a significant impact. Bedard, playing for the Chicago Blackhawks, notched his first NHL point as his team came back from a 2-0 deficit to defeat the Pittsburgh Penguins 4-2. Despite a loss in the opening faceoff against his childhood idol, Sidney Crosby, Bedard displayed his potential with impressive stats, leading all forwards in ice time and earning an assist.

Now that Baltimore has been eliminated from the postseason, there are just three MLB games scheduled to take place today. You can see our model’s predictions for those matchups below.

Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins

Model Predicts- Twins ML, OVER 8, Astros +1.5

The Houston Astros will look to close out their ALDS series with the Minnesota Twins on Wednesday night.

Houston started the series off with a bang, defeating Minnesota in Game 1 by a score of 6-4. That performance was followed up with a 6-2 loss in Game 2, and then a dominant 9-1 win on Tuesday.

Our model isn’t seeing much value on the Twins as a home favorite today, but does believe that we will have another high-scoring game. Let’s dive into why that is and see our model’s best bet for this matchup.

Houston Astros

• Put on offensive clinic in Game 3

  • Tagged Sonny Gray for 4 runs in the top of the 1st inning

  • Hit 4 home runs in the game- Two from José Abreu and one each from Yordan Alvarez and Alex Bregman

• Offense has been red hot through three postseason games

  • Rank 1st in wRC+ (147), 6th in BABIP (.314), and 1st in OPS (.900)

  • 8 home runs- second-most of any team in postseason despite playing 3 games

• Starting Pitcher- José Urquidy (3-3 record, 5.29 ERA)

  • Pitching to contact- Ranks in bottom 9% of majors in Strikeout rate and bottom 42% in Whiff rate

  • Opponents keep ball in the air- 36.5% ground ball rate is in bottom 19% of majors

Minnesota Twins

• Offense is all over the place

  • Have posted 103 wRC+, .319 BABIP, and .701 OPS in postseason

  • Biggest concern is strikeouts- 31.7% strikeout rate is highest among postseason teams

• Inconsistency at the plate led to yesterday’s loss

  • Game 2- 10 hits, 4 walks, 6 runs

  • Game 3- 3 hits, 7 walks, 1 run, stranded 9 runners on base

• Starting pitcher- Joe Ryan (11-10 record, 4.51 ERA)

  • 7.31 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in last 16.0 innings pitched

  • 8.10 ERA in 10.0 innings against Houston in regular season

  • Vulnerable to hard contact (41.6% Hard Hit rate) and barrel (8.7% Barrel rate)

  • Ranks in bottom 9% in MLB in ground ball rate (33.1%)

What’s the Play?

Once again, our model sees some value on the over in this matchup, and we feel that is the best play to be on given that it makes the winner of this game a coin flip.

Neither Urquidy nor Ryan can keep the baseball on the ground, which poses a problem moving forward. Houston has already launched 8 homers this series, and Minnesota has hit 5 across five postseason games. Both pitchers also struggle to keep the ball off the barrel, so the deep ball is certainly in play tonight.

Minnesota’s unpredictability at the plate makes it hard to take them on the money line, but this series has seen at least eight runs scored in all three games. We expect that trend to continue today.

The Play: Over 8 (-115)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Atlanta Braves- 104-58 overall in regular season, 7-3 as a road underdog

• Los Angeles Dodgers- 0-2 in postseason, 8-5 against Arizona in regular season

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Houston Astros- Over is 86-75-4 this season (including postseason), 3-0 in postseason

• Arizona Diamondbacks- Under is 44-31-6 at home this season

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Arizona Diamondbacks- Run line is 90-76 this season, 21-17 as a home underdog

🎉 Rangers punch ticket to ALCS. Corey Seager continues to hit home runs in the postseason, this time with the Texas Rangers as they surge through October. Seager and Adolis García hit early home runs in Game 3 of the ALDS, while Nathan Eovaldi delivered seven solid innings on the mound, leading the Rangers to a 7-1 victory over the Baltimore Orioles and completing a series sweep. The Rangers, initially a wild-card team, have now won all five of their postseason games and are heading to the American League Championship Series for the first time since 2011.

💪 Astros on brink of 7th straight ALCS. The Houston Astros are on the brink of securing their seventh consecutive American League Championship Series berth, following a resounding 9-1 victory over the Minnesota Twins in Game 3 of the ALDS at Target Field. The Astros got off to an early 4-0 lead with José Abreu's three-run homer in the first inning, and additional home runs from Alex Bregman and Yordan Alvarez contributed to their dominant performance. Houston aims to clinch the series in Game 4, while a Twins win would force a Game 5 back in Houston.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Who was selected with the first pick in the 1997 NBA Draft by the San Antonio Spurs?

Question #2- Which NFL coach has appeared in nine Super Bowls, winning six times in his career?

Question #3- Before being selected with the 30th overall pick in the 2011 NBA Draft, Jimmy Butler played college basketball at what university?

Anyone know what has happened on October 11th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On October 11th…

1980- The Dallas Mavericks make their NBA debut as the league’s newest expansion team. Dallas started off their season with a game against the San Antonio Spurs, one the Mavs would win 103-92. However, Dallas would record just 14 wins for the remainder of the season, ending the year with a 15-67 record.

1992- Deion Sanders suits up for the Atlanta Falcons and Atlanta Braves on the same day. Sanders began his day with the Falcons in South beach to take on the Miami Dolphins, and later flew to Pittsburgh to take on the Pirates in the NLCS. The presence of Sanders didn’t lead either of his teams to a win though, as the Falcons fell 21-17 and the Braves lost 7-1.

2020- The Los Angeles Lakers defeat the Miami Heat in Game 6 to win the NBA Finals. The victory gave L.A. its 17th NBA title in franchise history, matching the Celtics for the most by a single team. LeBron James was named Finals MVP, becoming the first player to win the award with three different teams.

1. Tim Duncan

2. Bill Belichick

3. Marquette