In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the NFL and MLB, with our model focusing in on two of those predictions in our Featured Matchups. Those predictions went 0-2 overall, and you can see how each of the models performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 8-5

Over/Under Predictions: 9-4

Spread Predictions: 4-9

Featured Matchup: 0-1

Money Line Predictions: 6-7

Over/Under Predictions: 3-10

Run Line Predictions: 8-5

Featured Matchup: 0-1

There are two NFL games scheduled to take place today. Game 1 is between the Saints and Panthers, and Game 2 between the Browns and Steelers.

Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Model Predicts- Browns ML, OVER 38.5, Steelers +2

The Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers will meet for the first time this season on Monday Night Football.

Cleveland picked up a win against AFC North rival Cincinnati in Week 1, setting the tone for what many expect to be a solid season. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh was blown out at home by the San Francisco 49ers.

Divisional battles always provide an extra layer of excitement, and out model believes that we are going to have a tight game tonight in Pittsburgh. Let’s dive into why that is and see what our model’s best bet is for this matchup.

Cleveland Browns

• Run game propelled Browns to blowout win in Week 1

  • Totaled 206 yards on the ground against Cincinnati- 2nd most in Week 1

    • Nick Chubb did most of damage- 106 rush yards, 5.89 yards per carry

  • Ran ball on 55.56% of plays (TeamRankings)

• Struggled in pass game

  • Watson completed 55.2% of pass attempts for 144 yards

  • 5.3 yards per pass attempt- 24th in Week 1

  • Watson had 67.4 passer rating- 6th lowest in Week 1

• Dealing with key injuries

  • Amari Cooper likely out, Jack Conklin ruled out for season

Pittsburgh Steelers

• Brutal start to season against San Francisco

  • Lost 30-7. Only score came with 13 seconds left in first half

• Kenny Pickett can blamed for offensive struggles

  • First five drives of game were three plays or less. Only nine pass yards in that stretch

  • Finished with 68.4 passer rating. 7th lowest in Week 1

• Dealing with injuries on both sides of ball

  • Offense- star receiver Diontae Johnson is OUT with hamstring injury

    • had three catches for 48 yards in Week 1 before getting injured

  • Defense- Cameron Heyward was put on IR with groin injury

What’s the Play?

It’s tough to justify a bet on the Steelers after last week’s performance, and the injuries to Johnson and Heyward certainly don’t make the bet prettier. However, we feel this is a good spot to buy low on Pittsburgh.

Jack Conklin being out for this game is massive. If healthy, he would be in charge of stopping TJ Watt, who had three sacks in Week 1, but all of a sudden that side of the line is wide open for Watt to take advantage of. Additionally, Pittsburgh finished Week 1 ranked 6th in run stop win rate, showing they are capable of suppressing Chubb.

Mike Tomlin and the Steelers are excellent against the spread as home underdogs (see below), and we feel Cleveland’s injuries will have more of an impact here. We’ll take Pittsburgh on the spread.

The Play: Steelers +2 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• New Orleans Saints- 1-0 overall this season, 15-10 as the away team since 2020

• Cleveland Browns- 1-0 overall this season, 1-3 against Steelers in last four meetings

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• No relevant trends for the over, which model predicts for both matchups

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Pittsburgh Steelers- 7-2-1 against the spread (ATS) as home underdog since 2019, 53-31-4 ATS as an underdog under Mike Tomlin

New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers

• New Orleans Saints

  • Alvin Kamara (Suspension), Kendre Miller (Questionable)

• Carolina Panthers

  • DJ Chark (Questionable), Jaycee Horn (OUT)

Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers

• Cleveland Browns

  • Amari Cooper (Questionable), Jack Conklin (OUT)

• Pittsburgh Steelers

  • Cameron Heyward (OUT), Diontae Johnson (OUT)

🥇 Puka Nacua sets NFL record. Rookie wide receiver Puka Nacua has continued to make waves in his second NFL game after an impressive debut in Week 1. In Week 2, he recorded 15 receptions for 147 yards, adding to his total of 10 catches for 119 yards in his NFL debut. Nacua now holds the record for the most catches by any wide receiver in their first two career NFL games, with a total of 25 catches for 266 yards, surpassing Earl Cooper's 1980 record.

🤕 Burrow aggravates calf injury. Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow admitted to aggravating his previously strained right calf in Sunday’s game against the Baltimore Ravens. Burrow was visibly limping and tending to his calf on the sidelines as the Bengals suffered a 27-24 loss, dropping their record to 0-2 for the second consecutive season. Both Burrow and coach Zac Taylor indicated that he would have reentered the game if the Bengals had one more offensive possession, but the severity of the injury remains uncertain.

🤨 Cam Akers inactive, Rams looking for trade partners. Los Angeles Rams running back Cam Akers did not be play in Sunday's game against the San Francisco 49ers. Instead, second-year running back Kyren Williams led the charge in the backfield, leading to confusion amongst Akers’ teammates and around the league. It's worth noting that Akers had a period away from the Rams last season and struggled with expectations, but he eventually returned and had a strong finish to the year, earning praise from coach Sean McVay.

There are 11 MLB games scheduled to take place throughout this afternoon and evening. You can our model predictions for each matchup below.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves

Model Predicts- Phillies ML, UNDER 9, Phillies +1.5

The Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves will square off in a three-game series for the final time this season on Monday evening.

Philadelphia enters this matchup off a loss to St. Louis on Sunday, but still won that series 2-1. Meanwhile, Atlanta was swept by Miami over the weekend, which included a 16-2 loss yesterday.

Even though the Braves have already clinched a playoff spot, the recent losing streak is a concern, and our model thinks the Phillies will extend the Braves’ losing streak to four tonight. Let’s dive into why that is and see our model’s best bet for this matchup.

Philadelphia Phillies

• 7-9 overall since September 1st, but putting up solid offensive numbers

  • Rank 12th in wRC+ (109) and 12th in OPS (.771) (FanGraphs)

  • Home run ball has been best friend- 26 this month (4th most in MLB)

  • 25.2% Strikeout rate is a concern, but 10.9% walk rate and .332 on base % shows they are still getting on base at high clip

• Solid series with Cardinals over the weekend

  • 115 wRC+, .338 BABIP, .788 OPS in three games

  • Lowered Strikeout rate to 18.1%

• Zack Wheeler (11-6 record, 3.70 ERA) will get start on mound today

  • Got crushed in last start against Braves- 5.0 innings, six runs, three home runs

  • However, pitched 8.0 innings shutout in prior start against Atlanta, and 3.19 xERA shows he has gotten unlucky

Atlanta Braves

• Coming off getting swept by Miami Marlins

  • outscored 36-13 in series. Did not score more than six runs

• Obviously, pitching staff shoulders much of the blame

  • 13.13 ERA over the weekend- highest in MLB by 4.5 runs (FanGraphs)

  • Generated 44.7% ground ball rate, leading to 3.75 home runs per nine innings

• Won’t get much relief on mound today with Kyle Wright (0-2 record, 7.48 ERA) set to get the start

  • Has only pitched 21.2 innings this season

  • Last start came against Phillies- 3.0 innings, 6 runs, 6 hits, 2 walks

  • Owns 50.7% Hard Hit rate, 12.3% Barrel rate, and 10.8% Walk Rate

What’s the Play?

Is it likely we see the Atlanta Braves get swept again? We doubt it. However, we do agree with our model that the Phillies can take Game 1 of the series tonight.

Wheeler’s last start is more of a fluke than anything else, and xERA along with his prior start against Atlanta earlier in the season indicate that. Philadelphia’s offense is also starting to emerge from the middle of the pack and has far more momentum entering this series than Atlanta does.

The Phillies already lit up Wright once this season in a 7-5 victory, and his vulnerability to putting balls on the barrel is dangerous against a home run hitting team like the Phillies. We’ll take Philadelphia as road underdog here.

The Play: Phillies ML (+100)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Cleveland Guardians- 72-78 overall this season, 3-0 in last three games

• Philadelphia Phillies- 81-68 overall this season, 2-1 in last three games

• Milwaukee Brewers- 84-65 overall this season, 39-35 against division opponents (Play NL Central rival St. Louis today)

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Philadelphia Phillies- Under is 71-67-11 this season,36-34-4 this season

• Texas Rangers- Over is 72-69-8 this season, 43-26-6 as the home team

• Baltimore Orioles- Over is 76-62-11 this season, 42-27-5 as the away team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Cincinnati Reds- Run line is 92-59 overall this season, 33-17 as home underdog

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com.

💪 Rays, Orioles clinch playoff berth. The Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays secured postseason berths when the Texas Rangers lost to the Cleveland Guardians, solidifying at least a wild card spot for both American League teams. In an 11-inning thriller, the Orioles narrowly defeated the Rays 5-4, leading to an exuberant on-field celebration where the Orioles players donned orange shirts reading "TAKE OCTOBER." This achievement marked the Orioles' return to the playoffs for the first time since 2016, showcasing their successful rebuild driven by a strong minor league system.

🧹 Marlins sweep Braves, inch closer to playoffs. The Miami Marlins showed the entire world what they are capable of over the weekend, sweeping the Atlanta Braves in a three-game series. The highlight of the series was Sunday’s 16-2 victory, a game in which Miami recorded 17 hits and 4 home runs. The win moved Miami ahead of Cincinnati and Arizona in the NL standings, and now the fish sit in the final wild card spot.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Who is the youngest quarterback in NFL history to win a Super Bowl?

Question #2- The New York Yankees have won the World Series 27 times. When was their last Fall Classic victory?

Question #3- Dirk Nowitzki is the highest scoring foreign player in NBA history with 31,560 points. Where does Dirk rank on the all-time scoring list?

Anyone know what has happened on September 18th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On September 18th…

1966- Baltimore Colts quarterback Johnny Unitas throws four touchdown passes in a 38-23 win over the Minnesota Vikings. The performance gave Unitas 212 passing TDs for his career, surpassing Y.A. Tittle for the top spot all-time. Unitas ended his career with 290 touchdowns, ranking him 17th all-time.

1991- The NCAA places the University of Tennessee on two years probation. The punishment resulted from various recruiting violations, which have become an all too familiar occurrence within the Volunteer program. Tennessee was also punished for recruiting violations earlier this summer, resulting in an $8 million fine.

1996- Boston Red Sox pitcher Roger Clemens records 20 strikeouts in a 4-0 victory over the Detroit Tigers. The 20 strikeouts tied the MLB record, which Clemens set himself more than 10 years earlier in 1986. Today there are two other pitchers, Max Scherzer and Kerry Wood, who have reached the 20 strikeout mark in a single game, and eight others who have reached 19.

1. Ben Roethlisberger

2. 2009

3. 6th