When the Two Worst Teams in Baseball Go Head-to-Head...

You Bet the Underdog

In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

  • Yesterday’s Model Recap

  • NFL News

  • MLB Model Predictions, Analysis, Trends, and News

  • What Else Is Cooking?

  • Trivia Questions

  • On This Day in History…

    Let’s not waste any more time. Who wants to be a winner today?

Yesterday’s Model Recap

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

MLB Model Results

Money Line Predictions: 8-4

Over/Under Predictions: 4-8

Run Line Predictions: 4-8

Featured Matchup: 1-0

NFL🏈

New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers (Getty Images)

👀 Aaron Rodgers to make an appearance in preseason. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who has abstained from preseason games since 2018, will debut for the New York Jets in their preseason finale against the New York Giants. Despite participating in training camp practices, the four-time MVP watched from the sidelines as Zach Wilson started the first three games. Rodgers likely won’t be on the field often, but is simply looking to knock off the rust prior to the Jets' season opener against the Buffalo Bills on September 11.

🔚 Myles Jack retires from NFL after seven seasons. Myles Jack, a linebacker for the Eagles, has communicated his retirement intentions to the team, as verified by a league source. After contemplating retirement earlier and considering trade school, Jack was convinced by his high school friend Budda Baker to train together and extend his NFL career, leading to his eventual signing with the Eagles alongside Zach Cunningham. Despite initially signing a one-year contract with Philadelphia and receiving primary practice reps, Jack's quiet training camp performance caused him to slip down the depth chart, likely influencing his retirement decision.

🐏 Cooper Kupp returning to practice this week. The Rams are set to welcome back a key player, as head coach Sean McVay confirmed that receiver Cooper Kupp will rejoin practice this week. Los Angeles is set to meet with the Denver Broncos this week for joint practices and a preseason match, but it appears Kupp will only participate in practice and not suit up for the game. Kupp had been sidelined due to a hamstring injury, but his return is a great sign for a Rams offense that is looking to bounce back from a poor showing last season.

MLB⚾️

Kansas City Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. (Peter Aiken/USA TODAY Sports)

Today’s Model Predictions

There are 10 MLB games scheduled to take place today. However, due to gaps in the season data, our model has predictions for nine of today’s matchups.

Featured Matchup🎰

Kansas City Royals @ Oakland Athletics
Model Predicts- Royals ML, OVER 8.5, Royals +1.5

The Kansas City Royals will begin a six-game West Coast road trip on Monday night with a stop in Oakland, California to take on the Athletics.

The Royals were the hottest team in baseball just a few weeks ago, ripping off a stretch of seven straight wins. However, Kansas City has fallen back to Earth, going 3-7 over the last ten games.

Luckily for the Royals, the Athletics aren’t any better, entering tonight’s matchup having lost three straight games and eight of their last ten.

Betting on a matchup that includes two of the worst teams in baseball may not seem ideal, but our model has identified some value on the Royals as a road underdog. Let’s dive into why that is.

Kansas City Royals

The Kansas City Royals enter tonight’s matchup with a 40-86 record, putting them 25.5 games back in the AL Central and 30.0 games back of the final AL Wild Card spot.

At this point, it is clear that the Royals have nothing to play for and are simply trying to get the franchise’s young talent some experience in the majors. However, that doesn’t mean that Kansas City has stopped being competitive.

Per FanGraphs, the Royals rank 12th in wRC+ since August 1st, coming in at a rather solid 113. The team’s .326 BABIP and .793 OPS also rank within the top-eight of the majors since that date, further proving that the Royals have been one of the best offenses in baseball for a rather large stretch of time.

Bobby Witt Jr. has been the catalyst for this offense in August, putting up some eye-popping numbers. The 23-year-old is batting .382 with a 1.124 OPS, six home runs, 19 RBIs, and just an 11.0% strikeout rate this month, making him one of the hottest bats in the MLB.

The one concern for Kansas City tonight comes on the mound with Tucker Davidson (1-2 record, 6.40 ERA). Davidson’s 6.40 ERA is unappealing, but his 4.72 xERA shows that he has gotten unlucky on the mound and that improvement is on the way. The southpaw also ranks in the top 29% of the majors in Average Exit Velocity, Hard Hit rate, and Barrel rate, showing that opposing hitters don’t size him up nearly as much as the surface-level numbers indicate.

Oakland Athletics

The Oakland Athletics still find themselves in the basement of the MLB standings in what has been an abysmal season all around.

Oakland struggles in just about every facet of the game, but hitting has been a major issue this season. According to FanGraphs, the Athletics rank 24th in wRC+ (89), 30th in OPS (.664), and 28th in BABIP (.276) this season, numbers that simply aren’t good enough to find the win column on a consistent basis.

Things haven’t gotten much better in the month of August, with Oakland’s wRC+ and OPS only rising slightly to 92 and .685, respectively. The A’s also own a 23.5% strikeout rate and 7.2% walk rate in that time, a split that shows this team is having trouble seeing the baseball.

The lack of offensive talent is often compounded with the lack of pitching talent, with Oakland entering tonight’s matchup with a league-worst 5.81 ERA. Luckily, the A’s will have some stability on the mound tonight with Paul Blackburn (3-3 record, 4.09 ERA) set to get the start.

Blackburn has been rather solid recently, pitching two shutouts in his last three starts. A big reason for that success is because Blackburn doesn’t get sized up often, ranking in the top 12% in Average Exit Velocity, Hard Hit rate, and Barrel rate this season.

What’s the Play?

Seeing the Oakland Athletics as the favorites in any matchup is quite the surprise. However, our model doesn’t believe that the worst team in baseball should be the favorite tonight, and we agree that Kansas City can walk away with the win here.

Blackburn is excellent at limiting hard contact, but there are still some concerns. His .252 xBA ranks in the bottom 34% of the majors, with two his four-most commonly thrown pitches carrying an xBA greater than .300. Additionally, he ranks in the bottom 25% in Whiff rate, showing that he isn’t generating man swings and misses.

A hot Royals offense is going to get plenty of cracks at Blackburn tonight, which should lead to some runs. Unfortunately for Blackburn, no matter how well he pitches, it’s unlikely he gets much run support, so we feel comfortable taking Kansas City as a road underdog.

The Play: Royals ML (+110)

Relevant Betting Trends

  • Seattle Mariners- 69-55 overall this season, 6-0 in last six games

  • Boston Red Sox- 66-58 overall this season, 7-3 in last ten games, 3-0 in last three games

  • Los Angeles Angels- 61-64 overall this season, 32-30 as the home team

  • Cincinnati Reds- Over is 62-63 this season, 34-26 as the away team

  • San Diego Padres- Under is 66-51-8 this season, 34-26-3 as the home team

  • Boston Red Sox- Run line is 64-60 overall this season, 25-14 as a road underdog

  • Cincinnati Reds- Run line is 78-47 overall this season, 36-16 as a road underdog

Injury Report

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com.

News Around the League

🧹 Scherzer moves up all-time strikeout list, but Rangers gets swept. Max Scherzer moved up to 11th place on the all-time career strikeout list, but he struggled through an erratic outing as the Milwaukee Brewers defeated the Texas Rangers 6-2 in a series sweep. Despite Corey Seager's 23rd home run for the Rangers, who suffered their fourth consecutive loss, Milwaukee's Tyrone Taylor broke the game open with a two-run triple and three runs scored. Milwaukee's victory maintained its three-game division lead over the Chicago Cubs, while Texas now holds just a 2.5-game lead in the AL West.

💪 Mariners win sixth straight game, sweep rival Houston Astros. The Seattle Mariners won their sixth straight game on Sunday afternoon, simultaneously sweeping the Houston Astros in the process. Seattle jumped out to an early 6-0 lead after three innings, but saw that lead dwindle to just one run after starting pitcher Emerson Hancock was forced to leave the game. Despite the push from Houston, Seattle escaped with a 7-6 victory, and now sits just three games back in the AL West and owns the final AL Wild Card spot.

💥 Dallas Keuchel takes perfect game into seventh inning. Dallas Keuchel delivered a dominant performance for the Minnesota Twins, taking a perfect game into the seventh inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Target Field. The performance comes after Keuchel surrendered six runs in less than two inning in his last start, a tremendous bounce back for the former Cy Young winner. Edouard Julien contributed to the Twins' victory, driving in runs with a sacrifice fly and an RBI double, and the Twins' bullpen sealed the deal, with Griffin Jax, Caleb Thielbar, and Jhoan Duran securing the win and Duran earning his 23rd save of the season.

What Else Is Cooking🍳

Spain celebrates winning FIFA Women’s World Cup (Carl Recine/Reuters)

🏀 Team USA pulls off comeback win against Germany. Team USA wrapped up their exhibition games with a 99-91 victory over Germany, showcasing a dramatic comeback after being down by 16 points in the second half. Anthony Edwards impressed with 34 points and solid defense, while Tyrese Haliburton contributed 18 points, displaying his defensive and playmaking skills. The game highlighted lessons for Team USA, as they encountered challenges from Germany's game plan, emphasizing speed and size, and now they head to the FIBA World Cup in Manila.

⛳️ Viktor Hovland wins BMW Championship. Viktor Hovland showcased a remarkable performance by carding a 9-under 61 to secure a victory at the BMW Championship, surpassing Scottie Scheffler and Matt Fitzpatrick. Hovland's impeccable back nine featured birdies on nearly every hole except two, enabling him to clinch the win and break the course record at Olympia Fields. Despite a competitive weekend, Hovland's exceptional round stole the spotlight, propelling him to his second victory of the year and securing a top spot for the FedEx Cup finale.

🇪🇸 Spain wins Women’s World Cup. Spain secured their first Women's World Cup title on Sunday, defeating England 1-0 in a captivating match. Olga Carmona's first-half goal was the decider, leading Spain to victory and making them the first team to hold the under-17, under-20, and senior world titles concurrently. The triumph marks Spain as the fifth nation to win the Women's World Cup, and they join Germany as the only countries to have clinched both men's and women's titles.

Trivia Section🧠

2023 Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs (Steven M. Faulk/Philadelphia Inquirer)

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Which golfer has spent the most consecutive weeks as the world No. 1 according to the Official World Golf Ranking, and how many weeks were they in the No.1 spot?

Question #2- Tommy Brown was the youngest player in MLB history to hit a home run at 17 years old, but who was the oldest and what was their age?

Question #3- The first Super Bowl was held on January 15, 1967. What two teams faced off in the game?

On This Day in History🗓

Former Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Rollie Fingers (Rich Pilling/MLB Photo)

Anyone know what has happened on August 21st throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On August 21st…

1931- New York Yankees legend Babe Ruth becomes the first player in MLB history to reach 600 career home runs in a 11-7 victory over the St. Louis Browns. No one would join The Babe on the list for nearly 40 more years, that is until Willie McCovey launched his 600th homer in 1969. Ruth would end his career with 714 home runs, the third-most in MLB history behind only Barry Bonds and Hank Aaron.

1982- Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Rollie Fingers becomes to the first pitcher in MLB history to reach 300 career saves. Fingers reached the milestone by pitching the final two innings in a 3-2 victory over the Seattle Mariners, but surrendered a two-run homer in the ninth inning to ruin the shutout. He would retire from the MLB a few years later in 1985 with 341 saves, ranking Fingers 15th on the all-time saves list.

2020- American golfer Scottie Scheffler becomes the 12th golfer and PGA Tour history to shoot 59. Scheffler achieved the feat in the second round of the Northern Trust Open at TPC Boston, recording four birdies on the final five holes. However, Scheffler would finish the event in fifth place at 17-under par, 13 strokes behind Dustin Johnson (-30).

Trivia Answers

  1. Tiger Woods (281)

  2. Julio Franco (47)

  3. Kansas City Chiefs and Green Bay Packers