In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter presented by Betstamp…

Additional Model Predictions & Bonuses ⬇️

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There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 6-1

Over/Under Predictions: 3-3-1

Run Line Predictions: 4-3

Featured Matchup: 1-0

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15 MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all 15 matchups can be found below.

Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds

Model Predicts- Reds ML, OVER 9.5, Reds +1.5

The Cleveland Guardians will continue their eight-game road trip on Tuesday, with the next leg coming in Cincinnati, Ohio for a two-game series with the Reds.

Cleveland’s road trip got off to a good start over the weekend, picking up two wins in three games against the Miami Marlins. Those victories pushed the Guardians’ season record to 42-22, good enough for first place in the AL Central, while Cincinnati enters tonight’s matchup at 32-34.

Both of these squads have been playing great baseball as of late, but our model projects the Reds to win tonight’s game by a narrow margin as a home underdog. Let’s dive into why that is.

Cleveland Guardians

• Enter this week off series win over Marlins

  • Outscored 3-2 in Game 1, but won 8-0 in Game 2 and 6-3 in Game 3

  • Now own 4-3 record since June 1st

• Offense has been clicking in June despite some losses

  • Rank 11th in wRC+ (112), 15th in OPS (.724)

  • Making loads of contact and drawing walks- Rank in top-five in strikeout rate (19.4%) and walk rate (10.1%) this month

• Starting pitcher- Triston McKenzie

  • Due for regression- 4.17 ERA vs 4.94 xERA

  • Lacks control and is vulnerable to fly balls- Ranks in bottom 10% of MLB in walk rate (13.1%), bottom 13% in Ground Ball rate (34.3%), and bottom 7% in Barrel rate (11.4%)

Cincinnati Reds

• Enter this week off series win over Cubs

  • Won three of four games in series. Posted +4 run differential in that span

  • Now own 7-2 record since June 1st, with both losses coming against Cubs

• Production at plate has been key to recent success

  • Rank 5th in wRC+ (128), 4th in BABIP (.335), and 4th in OPS (.821) since June 1st

  • have scored 56 runs and hit 12 homers in nine games this month

• Starting pitcher- Brent Suter

  • Relief pitcher serving as opener

  • Will likely hand ball off to Nick Martinez for bulk relief

What’s the Play?

There is a sizable gap between Cleveland and Cincinnati in the win column this season, but we agree with our model that the Reds are in position to win this matchup as a home underdog.

For those of you that don’t know, Triston McKenzie is currently pitching through a UCL injury, which is likely responsible for a majority of his struggles. The 26-year-old has very little control on the mound, as evidenced by his 13.1% walk rate, and to make matters worse, he has been crushed by opposing teams when he does give them pitches to hit. McKenzie has surrendered 20 hits, 12 earned runs, and eight home runs over his last 15.1 innings, and the gap between his real ERA and xERA shows that things are likely to continue to spin out of control.

Meanwhile, Nick Martinez, who we will likely see on the mound for most of the game for Cincinnati, has many metrics on his side, including a 4.13 ERA against a 2.89 xERA and ranking inside the top 5% of the MLB in Walk rate (2.8%), Barrel rate (3.0%), and Hard Hit rate (29.6%). Those metrics combined with Cincinnati’s hot offense gives the Reds plenty of value as an underdog today.

The Play: Reds ML (+110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Cincinnati Reds- 32-34 overall this season, 8-2 in the last ten games

• Milwaukee Brewers- 39-27 overall this season, 19-10 as the home team

• San Francisco Giants- 33-34 overall this season, 18-14 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Baltimore Orioles- Over is 34-24-7 this season, 16-13-4 as the home team

• Detroit Tigers- Over is 37-25-3 this season, highest win percentage in MLB (59.7%)

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Baltimore Orioles- Run line is 40-25 this season, 10-2 as an underdog

💎 Carlos Rodon pitches gem to lead Yankees to win over Royals. Carlos Rodón pitched a strong game, allowing only one run and five hits in seven innings, leading the New York Yankees to a 4-2 victory over the Kansas City Royals. Juan Soto returned to the Yankees lineup after an injury and contributed with a hit, a run, and a walk. The Yankees, now with the best record in the AL, secured their 10th win in 13 games, while Rodón's performance marked a significant comeback from his struggles last September.

🧹 Orioles bring out the brooms against AL East rival. Gunnar Henderson homered on the first pitch, and Ryan O’Hearn drove in three runs to lead the Baltimore Orioles to a 5-2 victory over the Tampa Bay Rays, completing their first four-game sweep at Tropicana Field. Corbin Burnes pitched seven strong innings, allowing two unearned runs and five hits, while Craig Kimbrel secured his 15th save. The Orioles, now 22-10 on the road, also set a franchise record with their second four-game series sweep this season, as Henderson and O’Hearn each had three hits, with Henderson scoring three times for the second consecutive game.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- The Villanova Wildcats have won three NCAA Basketball Championships in their history, including in 1985 when the Wildcats became the lowest seed (8) to win the national title. However, the most memorable came in 2016, when Villanova beat North Carolina 77-74 on a buzzer beating three-pointer. Who made the shot that crowned Villanova as National Champions in 2016?

Question #2- Greg Popovich has had two coaching stints with the San Antonio Spurs. The first stretched from 1988-1992 as an assistant, and the second began in 1996 and is still going to this day. However, Popovich was on the coaching staff of one other franchise from 1992-1994. What team was that?

Question #3- Seven duos in NFL history have rushed for 1,000 yards in a single season, with the most recent coming in 2019 with two players from the Baltimore Ravens. Lamar Jackson was one of those players, but what other Ravens player surpassed the 1,000 yard mark that season?

Anyone know what has happened on June 11th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On June 11th…

1913- Legendary NFL head coach Vince Lombardi is born in Brooklyn, New York. Lombardi is considered to be one of the greatest head coaches the NFL has ever seen, posting a 96-34-6 record across ten seasons in the league. He is mostly known for his time as the coach of the Green Bay Packers, the team he would lead to five NFL Championships in seven years, including the first two Super Bowls in 1966 and 1967.

1990- Nolan Ryan throws his sixth career no-hitter in a 5-0 victory over the Oakland Athletics. The Hall of Famer was 43 years old at the time, but still struck out 14 and only walked two in the victory. The no-hitter also made Ryan the only player in MLB history to throw a no-hitter for three different teams in three different decades.

2012- The Los Angeles Kings defeat the New Jersey Devils by a score of 6-1 in Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Finals. The Kings came out of the gates red hot, going up 3-0 in the first 20 minutes. The win was also Los Angeles’ fourth of the series, marking the first Stanley Cup in the Kings’ 45-year history. Long-time NHL goalie Jonathan Quick, who most recently played for the New York Rangers, was crowned the MVP.

1. Kris Jenkins

2. Golden State Warriors

3. Mark Ingram