In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

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There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 0-0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 8-5

Over/Under Predictions: 5-6-2

Run Line Predictions: 8-5

Featured Matchup: 0-0-1

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15 MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all 15 matchups can be found below.

Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals

Model Predicts- Guardians ML, OVER 8.5, Guardians +1.5

The Cleveland Guardians and Kansas City Royals will wrap up their three-game series on Wednesday, with the first pitch of Game 3 scheduled to take place at 7:40 PM Eastern.

Cleveland has been in control of this series from the first pitch, resulting in victories in each of the first two games. The Guardians have now won three consecutive games as a result of those victories, while the Royals are in the midst of a massive slump, dropping seven straight games entering this evening.

Cleveland and Kansas City are trending in opposite directions at a crucial point in the season, and our model expects that trend to continue today despite the Guardians being an underdog. Let’s dive into why that is.

Cleveland Guardians

• Enter today on three-game win streak

  • One win over Pirates, two wins over Royals

  • Own +13 run differential since September 1st. Have won all three games by at least two runs

• Hitting and pitching staffs have been among MLB’s best in September

  • Hitting- 162 wRC+ (2nd), .316 BABIP (14th), .928 OPS (3rd)

  • Pitching- 1.00 ERA (2nd), 3.47 xFIP (9th), 4 runs allowed (5th)

• Starting pitcher- Ben Lively

  • Pitching to expectations- 3.92 ERA vs 4.03 xERA

  • Vulnerable to hard contact- ranks in bottom 21% of MLB in Hard Hit rate (42.1%)

Kansas City Royals

• Enter today on seven-game losing streak

  • Four losses to Astros, three losses to Guardians

  • Own -22 run differential in that span

• Normally a top offense in MLB, but hitting attack has disappeared

  • Rank 28th in wRC+ (39), 29th in BABIP (.194), and 28th in OPS (.506) dating back to August 28th

  • .233 on base % in that time- resulting from ranking in bottom half of MLB in walk rate (6.9%) and strikeout rate (24.1%)

• Starting pitcher- Seth Lugo

  • Due for regression- 3.12 ERA vs 3.92 xERA

  • Great command- 6.0% walk rate ranks in top 19% of MLB

What’s the Play?

Cleveland may be an underdog today, but we agree with our model that the Guardians are in a position to win tonight’s ball game.

Seth Lugo has better surface-level numbers than Ben Lively, but a key factor here is going to be pending regression. Lively’s xERA is just 0.11 runs higher than his real ERA, showing that he has pitched to expectations and is expected to keep doing so. Meanwhile, Lugo’s xERA sits 0.90 runs higher than his real ERA, showing that he has gotten lucky on the mound thus far and should start allowing more runs in the future.

Additionally, Lively has the far better bullpen behind him at the moment, providing the Guardians with an additional layer of insurance. The Guardians’ bullpen ranks 1st in ERA this season (2.80), 0.42 runs better than the next closest team, while the Royals’ sit in 26th with a 4.54 ERA.

Cleveland has the far better offense right now, as well as more pitching support down the stretch if things get tough early on. Our model makes Cleveland a -126 favorite, so we’ll gladly grab them at +120.

The Play: Guardians ML (+120)

Money Line Trends 💰

• New York Mets- 75-64 overall this season, 8-2 in last ten games, and 6-0 in last six games

• Cleveland Guardians- 80-59 overall this season, 3-0 in last three games

• Arizona Diamondbacks- 78-61 overall this season, 39-30 as the away team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Toronto Blue Jays- Over is 74-63-3 this season, 40-27-1 as the home team

• Arizona Diamondbacks- Over is 79-54-6 this season, 36-29-4 as the away team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Cincinnati Reds- Run line is 77-62 this season, 47-28 as an underdog

💥 Schwarber leads Phillies to epic comeback vs Blue Jays. Kyle Schwarber hit three home runs, including a go-ahead three-run shot in the ninth inning, leading the Philadelphia Phillies to a 10-9 comeback win over the Toronto Blue Jays. Schwarber's performance, which included five hits and six RBIs, made him the first Phillies player with two three-homer games in a season. Despite a shaky start from Tyler Phillips, the Phillies matched a season high with 18 hits and secured their third consecutive win.

😬 Orioles hands White Sox 12th straight loss. Cade Povich struck out 10 batters and pitched into the eighth inning as the Baltimore Orioles dominated the White Sox 9-0, handing Chicago its 12th consecutive loss. The White Sox, now 31-109, became the first team since 1900 to have three separate 12-game losing streaks in a season, and are on pace for one of the worst records in modern baseball history. Baltimore, meanwhile, moved into first place in the AL East with the win, highlighted by an early offensive surge and a strong pitching performance from Povich.

Today’s trivia will test your college sports knowledge, specifically football and basketball.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- The three largest stadiums in the United States all belong to football teams in the Big 10 conference. Can you name all three schools, in order, that top the list?

Question #2- Kentucky, Duke, Kansas, UCLA, and North Carolina have the most wins in college basketball history. Which school ranks No.1?

Question #3- Villanova defeated North Carolina to claim the NCAA national title in 2016. Who was the Villanova player to hit the game-winning three-pointer as time expired?

Anyone know what has happened on September 4th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On September 4th…

1993- Penn State University plays its first football game as a member of the Big 10, defeating Minnesota 38-20. Nittany Lions quarterback John Sacca and wide receiver Bobby Engram were the stars of the show, connecting on four touchdowns in the game. Penn State would finish the 1993 season 10-2, with the two losses coming to Michigan and Ohio State.

1994- Miami Dolphins quarterback Dan Marino throws five touchdown passes in a 39-35 win over the New England Patriots. The significance of the performance is that it was the 18th time Marino threw for at least four touchdowns in a game, a new NFL record. Marino would go on to throw 420 touchdowns in his career, the 7th most all-time.

2005- 20-year-old Kyle Busch becomes the youngest driver to win a NASCAR Cup Series race. Busch accomplished the feat at the Sony HD 500 at California Speedway, out-dueling Greg Biffle on his way to victory. The win was just the tip of the iceberg for Busch, who now has 63 Cup Series victories in his career.

1. Michigan, Penn State, Ohio State

2. Kentucky

3. Kris Jenkins