In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

Additional Model Predictions & Bonuses ⬇️

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There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 6-9

Over/Under Predictions: 7-8

Run Line Predictions: 15-0

Featured Matchup: 0-1

13 MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all 13 matchups can be found below.

Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs

Model Predicts- Brewers ML, OVER 8, Cubs +1.5

The Milwaukee Brewers will continue their five-game road trip on Monday, with the next stop coming in Chicago, Illinois to battle the Cubs.

Milwaukee came out of the All-Star break with very little rust, resulting in a weekend sweep against the Minnesota Twins. Those victories pushed the Brewers’ record to 57-42, good enough for first place in the NL Central, while the Cubs own a 48-53 record following a series loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks over the weekend.

Sportsbooks make the Brewers a short favorite on the road tonight, but our model projects Milwaukee to be close to a -150 favorite and sees plenty of value on the money line. Let’s dive into why that is.

Milwaukee Brewers

• Fresh off series win over Twins

  • Outscored Twins 8-4 in Game 1, 8-7 in Game 2

  • Have now won three-straight games dating back to July 14th

• Offense is largest reason for recent winning stretch

  • Rank 2nd in wRC+ (145), 3rd in BABIP (.338), and 2nd in OPS (.887) in last three games

  • Scoring 8.33 runs per game in that time- most in MLB

• Starting pitcher- Tobias Myers

  • Due for regression- 3.13 ERA vs 3.98 xERA

  • Coming off best start of season- 8.0 innings, four hits, zero earned runs

Chicago Cubs

• Coming off series loss to Diamondbacks

  • Won Game 3 in extra innings, but lost Games 1 and 2

  • Posted -5 run differential in series

• Offense is experiencing a lack of success compared to Milwaukee

  • Rank 28th in wRC+ (48), 28th in BABIP (.225), and 28th in OPS (.491) over last three games

  • Have been held to four total runs 16 hits in that span- both rank in bottom three in MLB

• Starting pitcher- Javier Assad

  • Due for significant regression- 3.27 ERA vs 4.72 xERA

  • Oftentimes pitching to contact- Ranks in bottom 4% of MLB in Whiff rate (18.1%)

What’s the Play?

There is no doubt who the better team is entering this series, as Milwaukee has cleared the Cubs in several categories over the last three games and the entire season. As a result, we’ll back the Brewers on the money line here.

Tobias Myers is due to see regression, but not an alarming amount. His xERA still comes in below 4.00, an indication that his success on the mound is likely to continue, and the rookie enters this matchup with a red-hot offense behind him that should provide plenty of run support.

Meanwhile, Assad currently owns a 1.45-run variance between his real ERA and xERA, meaning the right-hander has gotten lucky on the mound thus far and is due to give up more runs to his opponents. We’ve already seen some of that regression take place, as Assad has posted a 10.16 ERA over his last 6.2 innings, but several metrics indicate there is still plenty of room for him to regress.

Milwaukee has the far better offense at the moment and the starting pitcher that is better positioned to have success on the mound. As a result, we’ll back Milwaukee at -115.

The Play: Brewers ML (-115)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Philadelphia Phillies- 63-36 overall this season, 25-20 as the away team

• Milwaukee Brewers- 57-42 overall this season, 28-25 as the away team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Atlanta Braves- Under is 58-35-5 overall this season, 31-17-1 as the home team

• Milwaukee Brewers- Over is 54-39-6 this season, highest win percentage in MLB (58.1%)

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Cincinnati Reds- Run line is 55-45 this season, 32-22 as an underdog

🤕 Albies heading to IL after suffering wrist injury. Atlanta Braves second baseman Ozzie Albies left Sunday's game against the St. Louis Cardinals in the ninth inning with a wrist injury sustained while attempting a stolen base. Braves manager Brian Snitker described the injury as "not good" and confirmed that Albies will be placed on the injured list. Despite recording two hits in the game, Albies is having a down season with a .258/.310/.407 slash line following a career-best year in 2023.

🔄 Dodgers considering trading for several White Sox players. The Los Angeles Dodgers are considering a significant trade involving left-hander Garrett Crochet and outfielder Luis Robert Jr. from the Chicago White Sox, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today. White Sox closer Michael Kopech might also be part of the potential deal, which would upgrade the Dodgers' center field position with Robert and bolster their rotation with Crochet. The cost for acquiring Robert, a 2023 All-Star, would be high, as he has club options keeping him under contract through 2027, while Crochet would strengthen the Dodgers' rotation with his impressive stats this season.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- The Sacramento Kings haven’t always called the West Cost home, playing in several different cities before moving to Sacramento. What was the first city the Kings played in?

Question #2- Former New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning was originally selected by the San Diego Chargers in the 2004 NFL Draft, but refused to play for the team. His refusal resulted in a trade to New York, with the Giants giving up what other quarterback for him?

Question #3- The Arizona Diamondbacks came into the MLB as an expansion team in 2001, going on to become the fastest MLB expansion team to win a World Series. How many years did it take for Arizona to win its first title?

Anyone know what has happened on July 22nd throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On July 22nd…

1962- South African golfer Gary Player wins the PGA Championship, beating Bob Goalby by one stroke. Player found himself buried on the leaderboard following a 2-over par performance in Round 1, but he would respond nicely in Round 2, shooting 3-under to move into a tie for second. He would go on to shoot 1-under par across the final 36 holes, giving him his third of nine major victories in his career.

1993- New York Yankees first baseman Don Mattingly hits his 200th career home run in a 12-1 blowout victory over the California Angels. Mattingly reached the milestone in the seventh inning against Doug Linton, launching a three-run homer into the stands to give the Yankees an 11-run lead. The first baseman played for New York from 1982-1995, ending his career with 222 home runs and a .307 batting average.

1995- Former Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott is born in Alton, Illinois. Zeke played his college football at Ohio State University before being selected with the fourth overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft, where he finished second in Buckeye history with 3,961 rushing yards. Elliott collected 8,262 rushing yards and 80 total touchdowns in his seven-year career with the Cowboys, and recently returned to the team after spending one season with the Patriots.

1. Rochester, New York

2. Philip Rivers

3. 4