In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

Additional Model Predictions & Bonuses ⬇️

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There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the NFL, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 1-1

Over/Under Predictions: 1-1

Spread Predictions: 1-1

Featured Matchup: 1-0

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15 MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all 15 matchups can be found below.

Texas Rangers @ Oakland Athletics

Model Predicts- Athletics ML, OVER 7.5, Athletics +1.5

The Texas Rangers will begin their final road trip of the 2024 regular season on Tuesday, with the first stop coming in Oakland, California to battle the Athletics.

The defending World Series Champions have had a rough season after reaching the pinnacle of baseball less than a year ago, as the Rangers own a 74-82 record and are well outside of playoff contention. Oakland hasn’t faired any better as we approach the regular season’s end, entering tonight with a 67-89 record.

Both Texas and Oakland have been eliminated from playoff contention, but our model expects the Athletics to have some juice left in the tank that will propel the team to a win tonight. Let’s dive into why that is.

Texas Rangers

• Have lost three of last four games

  • One loss to Blue Jays, two losses to Mariners

  • Own -13 run differential in that span

• Offense has been amongst MLB’s worst over last four games

  • Rank 24th in wRC+ (77), 16th in BABIP (.291), and 23rd in OPS (.263) since September 19th

  • Showing no signs of power- Rank in bottom seven in home runs (3) over last four games. Has led to just 12 runs being scored

• Starting pitcher- Nathan Eovaldi

  • Pitching to expectations- 3.96 ERA vs 3.98 xERA

  • Vulnerable to hard contact- 43.3% Hard Hit rate ranks in bottom 13% of MLB

Oakland Athletics

• Enter series with Texas on three-game losing streak

  • All three losses came to Yankees. Posted -15 run differential in series

  • Have now lost six of last eight games

• Offense has been poor during losing stretch, but is better for entire month of September

  • Last three games- 19 wRC+, .221 BABIP, .393 OPS. Averaging 2.0 runs/game

  • Since September 1st- 90 wRC+, .308 BABIP, .659 OPS. Averaging 3.40 runs/game

• Starting pitcher- Mitch Spence

  • Due for positive regression- 4.30 ERA vs 3.98 xERA

  • Great command on mound- 6.6% Walk rate

What’s the Play?

Neither Texas nor Oakland’s offense has been good enough as of late to give many sports bettors confidence in backing either. However, someone has to win this game, and we agree with our model that the Athletics are in position to do so.

Nathan Eovaldi has been pitching to expectations thus far, but he has been consistently lit up the last few times he has stepped on the mound. The right-hander owns a 10.76 ERA and 2.28 WHIP across his last 9.2 innings, and in that stretch has surrendered four home runs. His struggles go back even further too, as Eovaldi has allowed at least three earned runs in seven of his last nine starts dating back to July 29th.

Meanwhile, Mitch Spence owns a 2.75 ERA across his last 26.2 innings, and the 0.32-run gap between his real ERA and xERA shows he should continue to put together strong performances on the mound.

Oakland’s offense has looked awful over the last three games, but we expect this matchup against a struggling Eovaldi to get the team back on track. As a result, we’ll back the A’s at even money.

The Play: Athletics ML (+100)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Detroit Tigers- 82-74 overall this season, 7-3 in last ten games

• Milwaukee Brewers- 89-67 overall this season, 44-34 as the away team

• Los Angeles Dodgers- 93-63 overall this season, 50-28 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• San Francisco Giants- Over is 44-29-5 as the away team this season, highest win percentage in MLB (60.3%)

• Arizona Diamondbacks- Over is 89-61-7 this season, 46-27-3 as the home team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Pittsburgh Pirates- Run line is 82-74 this season, 21-12 as a home underdog

👑 Phillies secure NL East crown for first time in over a decade. The Philadelphia Phillies clinched their first NL East title since 2011 by defeating the Chicago Cubs 6-2. After taking the division lead in May, they held it comfortably for 143 days, marking their third consecutive postseason appearance. With the division secured, the Phillies now aim to claim the National League’s top playoff seed, holding a tiebreaker advantage over the Los Angeles Dodgers.

👏 Charlie Blackmon set to retire at end of 2024 season. Colorado Rockies outfielder Charlie Blackmon announced his retirement after 14 seasons, during which he earned four All-Star selections, a 2017 NL batting title, and two Silver Slugger awards. Blackmon, who spent his entire career with the Rockies, reflected on his journey, expressing gratitude to the organization, his teammates, and fans. The Rockies will honor him during their final home series, with his last game set for September 29 against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

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Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- The Oregon Ducks came within minutes of shutting out Colorado in Week 4 of last season. When was the last time Oregon shut out a Pac 12 team, and which team did it come against?

Question #2- Before attending the University of Oklahoma, Baker Mayfield played for what other Big 12 school?

Question #3- The Milwaukee Bucks traded Stephon Marbury to the Minnesota Timberwolves for what player during the 1996 NBA Draft?

Anyone know what has happened on September 24th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On September 24th…

1957- The Brooklyn Dodgers play their last game at Ebbets Field, defeating the Pirates 2-0. Owner Walter O’Malley would move the team to Los Angeles the following season, ending what was a 60-year run in Brooklyn. The Dodgers remain in Los Angeles today, winning the World Series six times since relocating.

1979- MLB legend Pete Rose records 200 hits in a season for the 10th time in his career. The achievement came in Rose’s first season with the Philadelphia Phillies, the team he would record 826 hits with from 1979-1983. Rose would end his career with 4,256 hits, the most in MLB history.

1992- Toronto Blue Jays player Dave Winfield becomes the oldest player in MLB history to record 100 RBIs in a season. Winfield would end the 1992 season with 108 RBIs, his 8th 100 RBI season in his career and first since 1988. He would end his 22-year MLB career with 1,833 RBIs, which currently ranks 19th in MLB history.

1. 2012 (Arizona State)

2. Texas Tech

3. Ray Allen