Value on Total in Los Angeles

In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

Additional Model Predictions ⬇️ 

NBA Model Predictions- Click Here

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NCAAB Model Predictions- Click Here

There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the NFL, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 8-3

Over/Under Predictions: 7-4

Spread Predictions: 5-5-1

Featured Matchup: 0-1

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One NFL game is scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for that matchup can be found below.

Baltimore Ravens @ Los Angeles Chargers

Model Predicts- Chargers ML, UNDER 50.5, Chargers +2.5

The Baltimore Ravens will hit the road for the second consecutive week on Monday, traveling across the country to Los Angeles, California to battle the Chargers on Monday Night Football.

Baltimore enters this matchup fresh off a loss to an AFC North rival in the Pittsburgh Steelers, ending a two-game win streak to begin November. Meanwhile, Los Angeles enters this week off a thrilling win over the Cincinnati Bengals last Sunday night, extending the Chargers’ win streak to four games.

Our model projects the Chargers to win tonight’s game outright as a home underdog, but it has spotted far more value on the total in this matchup. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Baltimore Ravens

• Enter this week off loss to Steelers

  • Lost game 18-16. Loss ended two-game winning streak

  • Recorded 329 yards of offense. Scored seven points in first half and nine points in second half

• Offense continues to be best in NFL despite last week’s struggles

  • Rank 1st in EPA/play, second in success rate

  • Do tons of damage on ground- 177.3 rush yards/game and 5.8 yards/carry rank in top-two of NFL this season

• Defense is still struggling to stop the pass

  • Rank 19th in opponent dropback success rate. Surrendering 284.5 pass yards/game (most in NFL)

Los Angeles Chargers

• Enter this week on four-game win streak

  • Wins over Saints, Browns, Titans, and Bengals

  • Own +52 point differential in that span

• Defense has been largest reason for success this season

  • Rank fourth in opponent EPA/play and opponent success rate

  • Holding opponents to 5.2 yards/play (8th in NFL) and 14.6 points/game (1st in NFL)

• Offense is mediocre this season, and could be missing key piece in passing game

  • Averaging 5.5 yards/play (15th in NFL). Rookie wide receiver Ladd McConnkey is questionable (leads team in receptions and receiving yards)

What’s the Play?

Sportsbooks have the total for tonight’s game above 50 points, while our model projects the Ravens and Chargers to combine for roughly 46 points in this game. As a result, we’ll back the under here.

A key factor in tonight’s game is Baltimore’s and Los Angeles’ reliance on the run. Per TeamRankings, the Ravens run the ball on 50.07% of plays this season, and the Chargers aren’t far behind at 48.83%. Those rates rank in the top-eight of the NFL through 11 weeks, and that philosophy oftentimes runs the clock, as evidenced by both teams ranking in the bottom nine in seconds/play.

Additionally, even with Baltimore’s struggles defending the pass, the Ravens’ and Chargers’ defenses are both elite in the red zone, with Baltimore allowing a touchdown on 52.78% of red zone drives (13th in NFL) and the Chargers allowing a touchdown on 40.91% of red zone drives (2nd in NFL).

We don’t expect either team to veer away from their usual slow pace of play tonight, which will help churn the clock and make scoring opportunities rare, especially in the red zone. As a result, we’ll take the under on Monday Night Football.

The Play: Under 50.5 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Los Angeles Chargers- 7-3 overall this season, 4-1 as the home team, and 4-0 in last four games

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Los Angeles Chargers- Under is 7-3 this season, 2-0 as an underdog

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Los Angeles Chargers- 7-3 against the spread (ATS) this season, 4-1 ATS as the home team

😬 Giants get blown out in first game without Daniel Jones. Baker Mayfield's thrilling 10-yard scramble for a touchdown highlighted the Buccaneers' dominant 30-7 victory over the Giants, snapping Tampa Bay's four-game losing streak and extending New York's skid to six. New starter Tommy DeVito struggled for the Giants, who failed to overcome their offensive woes despite his 189 passing yards, mostly in garbage time. Tampa Bay excelled in all phases, with Mayfield throwing for 294 yards and the team racking up 450 total yards, while the Giants managed just 245 yards and were held scoreless until the fourth quarter.

✍️ Saquon Barkley rewrites record books in win over Rams. Saquon Barkley entered the MVP conversation with a record-breaking performance, rushing for 255 yards and two touchdowns while adding 47 receiving yards in the Eagles' 37-20 win over the Rams. He became the first player in NFL history to achieve at least 250 rushing yards, 45 receiving yards, and two touchdowns in a single game, highlighted by a 72-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter. Now on pace to break the NFL single-season rushing record, Barkley has revitalized his career with the Eagles after six seasons with the Giants, cementing his place in franchise history with this remarkable outing.

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Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- What quarterback from Marshall was the first QB selected in the 2000 NFL Draft, going 18th overall to the New York Jets?

Question #2- North Carolina defeated what current Big 10 team to win the 2005 NCAA March Madness tournament?

Question #3- Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love attended what Mountain West school prior to starting his NFL career?

Anyone know what has happened on November 25th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On November 25th…

1981- Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Rollie Fingers wins the American League MVP award. Fingers won the award as a result of recording a 6-3 record and 1.04 ERA across 47 appearances, which also won him the Cy Young award. Fingers became the first relief pitcher to win the American League MVP award, and only four relief pitchers have ever won the award.

1986- Oakland Athletics star Jose Canseco wins the American League Rookie of the Year award. The honor came following a dominant first pro season for Canseco, one that saw him record 33 home runs, 117 RBIs, and 85 runs scored. Canseco went on to be a dominant force for most of his career, becoming an All-Star six times and winning the MVP award in 1988.

2018- Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers completes 25 consecutive passes. The performance came in a 45-10 win over the Arizona Cardinals, and Rivers set a new NFL record for consecutive completions, breaking the previous record of 22. Rivers also set the single-game completion percentage record, completing 96.6% of his pass attempts in the game.

1. Chad Pennington

2. University of Illinois

3. Utah State University