Value on Total in Pittsburgh

In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

Additional Model Predictions ⬇️ 

MLB Model Predictions- End of Newsletter

NHL Model Predictions- End of Newsletter

NBA Model Predictions- End of Newsletter

There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the NFL, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 11-3

Over/Under Predictions: 8-6

Spread Predictions: 10-4

Featured Matchup: 1-0

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One NFL game is scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for that matchup can be found below.

New York Giants @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Model Predicts- Steelers ML, OVER 36.5, Steelers -6

The New York Giants will hit the road for the first time since Week 5 on Monday, taking on the Pittsburgh Steelers at Acrisure Stadium on Monday Night Football.

New York enters this matchup in the midst of a two-game losing streak, with the most recent loss coming at the hands of an NFC East rival in the Philadelphia Eagles. On the other hand, the Steelers are on a two-game winning streak, one that has Pittsburgh sitting atop the AFC North division.

Our model projects the Steelers to win this game convincingly, but we are more focused on the total in this spot. Let’s dive into why that is.

New York Giants

• Enter today on two-game losing streak

  • One loss to Bengals, one loss to Eagles

  • Own -35 point differential in that span

• Daniel Jones and rest of offense have struggled during losing streak

  • Rank 27th in EPA/play and 22nd in success rate over last two games

  • Have scored just ten points in that span. Jones completing 58.1% of pass attempts

• Defense is posting mediocre numbers alongside offense

  • Holding opponents to 5.4 yards/play (20th in NFL). Has risen to 5.6 over last three games

  • Rank 21st in opponent EPA/play and success rate

Pittsburgh Steelers

• Enter today on two-game winning streak

  • Wins over Raiders and Jets

  • Won both games by 21 points or more

• Received solid production from offense last week in Russell Wilson’s first start of season

  • Completed 16 of 29 pass attempts for 264 yards and three total touchdowns

  • Also recorded 149 rushing yards- 102 from Najee Harris, 44 from Jaylen Warren, three from Russell Wilson

• Strength of defense is stopping the run

  • Holding opponents to 81 rush yards/game (2nd in NFL) and 3.6 yards/carry (2nd in NFL)

What’s the Play?

The total for tonight’s game opened at 37.5, but has since fallen to 36.5 at the time of writing. That shift has our model showing value on the over in this spot, and that is what our best bet is for this matchup.

New York’s offense has been horrendous over the last two games, but the Giants always seem to perform better on the road. Per TeamRankings, the Giants average just 3.7 yards/play and 7.8 points per game at home at this season, but figure out the offense on the road as those averages soar to 5.6 yards/play and 22.7 points/game.

The key to offensive success on the road has been an increase in production through the air. New York averages 216 pass yards/game on the road this season (13th in NFL), up from 169 at home. We expect that trend to continue tonight against a vulnerable Steelers pass defense, one that surrenders 217.3 pass yards/game (22nd) and 10.2 yards/completion (19th).

Russell Wilson looked solid last week and the running game was clicking, and we have no reason to think that won’t continue tonight as well. As a result, we should expect both teams to be in position to put up points tonight, so we’ll back the over here.

The Play: Over 36.5 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Pittsburgh Steelers- 5-2 overall this season, 2-1 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• New York Giants- Over is 1-2 as the away team this season with average total of 41.33

• Pittsburgh Steelers- Over is 3-4 overall this season, 2-0 in last two weeks with average total of 48.5

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Pittsburgh Steelers- 5-2 against the spread (ATS) this season, 2-1 ATS as the home team

📉 Jets fall to 2-6 after loss to Patriots. Rhamondre Stevenson’s late touchdown gave the New England Patriots a 25-22 win over the New York Jets, leaving both teams with 2-6 records. Backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett filled in for the injured Drake Maye for most of the game. Despite a solid 336-yard performance from Aaron Rodgers' offense, the Jets’ eight penalties and ongoing mistakes led to their third straight loss since Robert Saleh’s dismissal.

🤕 Stefon Diggs suffers knee injury in win over Colts. Houston Texans wide receiver Stefon Diggs exited Sunday’s 23-20 victory over the Indianapolis Colts after sustaining a non-contact knee injury in the third quarter. Diggs, who had recorded five catches for 81 yards, was escorted to the locker room by trainers. His injury further strains the Texans' receiving group, already without Nico Collins, who remains on injured reserve.

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Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Two University of Kentucky players were drafted with the 12th and 13th overall picks in the 2019 NBA Draft. One of those players was PJ Washington, but who was the other?

Question #2- Which Kansas City Chiefs player led the NFL in sacks during the 2014 season, recording 22 total?

Question #3- Two players have hit more than 200 home runs as members of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Who are those players?

Anyone know what has happened on October 28th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On October 28th…

1978- NHL Legend Bobby Orr scores his final NHL goal. Orr scored the goal as a member of the Chicago Blackhawks, finding the back of the net in the third period of a 7-2 loss against the Detroit Red Wings. Orr retired with 270 goals, and added 645 assists for a point total of 915.

2015- The longest World Series game is played between the New York Mets and Kansas City Royals. The game last five hours and nine minutes, and spanned 14 innings. New York won the game by a score of 5-4, the only win for the Mets in the series.

2018- The Boston Red Sox beat the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 5 of the World Series. Boston won the game by a score of 5-1, the fourth win of the series for the Red Sox. It was the ninth World Series won by Boston, and Steve Pearce was named World Series MVP.

1. Tyler Herro

2. Justin Houston

3. Luis Gonzalez, Paul Goldschmidt

MLB Model Predictions⚾️

NHL Model Predictions🏒

NBA Model Predictions🏀