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In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

Additional Model Predictions ⬇️ 

NCAAF Model Predictions- End of Newsletter

NBA Model Predictions- End of Newsletter

NCAAB Model Predictions- End of Newsletter

There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the NFL, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 1-0

Over/Under Predictions: 1-0

Spread Predictions: 0-1

Featured Matchup: 1-0

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Seven NHL games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all seven matchups can be found below.

Anaheim Ducks @ Chicago Blackhawks

Model Predicts- Blackhawks ML, OVER 6, Ducks +1.5

The Anaheim Ducks will wrap up a short two-game road trip on Tuesday, with the final stop coming in Chicago, Illinois to battle the Blackhawks at the United Center.

Anaheim got its road trip off to a solid start last night, taking down the Dallas Stars by a score of 4-2. That win was the second-consecutive victory for the Ducks, pushing their record to 7-8-2, while the Blackhawks are in the midst of a two-game losing streak and own a 6-11-1 record through 18 games.

This game is the second half of a back-to-back for Anaheim, and as a result our model projects Chicago to win on its home ice in a relatively high-scoring affair. Lets dive into why that is.

Anaheim Ducks

• Enter today on two-game win streak

  • One win over Red Wings, one win over Stars

  • Own +4 goal differential in that stretch. Have combined to score 10 goals

• Defense has been solid this season on paper, but underlying metrics show regression is near

  • Surrendering 3.06 goals/game (13th in NHL). Rank top-five in fewest penalty minutes/game (7.20)

  • However, Goals Against per 60 minutes (GA/60) in 5-on-5 sits at 2.35, while Expected Goals Against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) is up at 3.59

• Expected goalie- John Gibson

  • Owns .960 Save % in 5-on-5 situations. Ranks 23rd in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) with +1.7

Chicago Blackhawks

• Enter today on two-game losing streak

  • One loss to Kraken, one loss to Canucks

  • Own -5 goal differential in that span. Have scored one goal in each game

• Similar to Anaheim, defense is due for regression in near future

  • Own 2.13 GA/60 in 5-on-5 this season, but xGA/60 in same situations is higher at 2.69 (25th in NHL)

  • Vulnerability on defense has enabled opponents to score three or more goals in four of last five games

• Expected goalie- Petr Mrazek

  • Owns .918 Save % in 5-on-5. Ranks 24th in GSAx (+1.4)

What’s the Play?

Our model is right in line with the market at making the Blackhawks a -161 favorite at home tonight, so there isn’t much value in backing Chicago as an outright winner. However, we agree with our model to bet the over in this spot.

Underlying metrics show Anaheim’s defense has been horrific this season, and as previously mentioned, should begin to see its opponents find the back of the net at a higher rate. A large reason for that is due to the amount of pressure the Ducks allow on their goaltenders, resulting in opponents recording 34.9 shots on goal per game and 15.4 High-Danger Scoring Chances per 60 minutes (HDCA/60) in 5-on-5 situations. Both of those metrics rank last in the NHL this season.

Those weaknesses will help Chicago’s offense get out of its slump, but we still believe Chicago’s defense will struggle despite Anaheim being on no rest, as the Blackhawks rank 25th in HDCA/60 in 5-on-5 and also are due to see regression defensively.

In summary, both teams surrender far too much pressure on net, giving each a great opportunity to pile on the goals. As a result, we’ll back the over in this spot.

The Play: Over 6 (-115)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Ottawa Senators- 8-8-1 overall this season, 5-2-1 as the home team

• Winnipeg Jets- 15-3-0 overall this season, 8-1-0 as the home team

• New York Rangers- 11-4-1 overall this season, 6-1-0 as the away team, and 2-0 in last two games

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Florida Panthers- Over is 12-6-0 this season with average total of 6.78

• Calgary Flames- Under is 12-5-1 this season with average total of 5.56

Puck Line Trends ➕➖

• St. Louis Blues- Puck line is 12-7 this season

• Anaheim Ducks- Puck line is 11-6 this season

🤕 Nurse expected to miss 5-10 days with head injury. Edmonton Oilers defenseman Darnell Nurse is expected to miss 5-10 days after suffering a head injury from a hit by Toronto Maple Leafs’ Ryan Reaves, who received a five-game suspension. Head coach Kris Knoblauch expressed relief at Nurse’s progress, noting that he’s recovering well following the second-period collision in Saturday’s game. Nurse, currently in the third year of his eight-year, $9.25 million annual contract, has tallied nine points in 18 games this season while averaging over 20 minutes of ice time per game.

🐧 Oilers, Canucks interested in acquiring Pettersson from Penguins. The Edmonton Oilers and Vancouver Canucks are reportedly interested in acquiring Pittsburgh Penguins defenseman Marcus Pettersson, who is in the final year of his contract with a $4.025 million cap hit. Pettersson has been a key player for the Penguins, averaging over 22 minutes of ice time per game this season and posting solid underlying metrics despite the team's struggles. The 28-year-old Swede, acquired from the Anaheim Ducks in 2018, has tallied eight points in 20 games this season, while Pittsburgh sits near the bottom of the Metropolitan Division standings.

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Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Former NBA point guard Ty Lawson began his NBA career with what Western Conference team in 2009?

Question #2- What NFL quarterback led the league in yards per rushing attempt during the 2004 season, averaging 7.5 yards per attempt?

Question #3- The Carolina Hurricanes defeated what Western Conference team in seven games to win the 2006 Stanley Cup Finals?

Anyone know what has happened on November 19th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On November 19th…

1991- Baltimore Orioles star Cal Ripken Jr. wins his second American League MVP Award. The honor came after yet another dominant season by Ripken, one in which he recorded 34 home runs, 114 RBIs, and 99 runs scored. It would be the final MVP Award of Ripken’s career, but he would still produce solid seasons and was named an All-Star in all ten years afterwards.

2018- The Los Angeles Rams defeat the Kansas City Chiefs 54-51 at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. The game was one for the record books, as it was the first time two teams scored 50 or more points in the same game, and the 105 total point scored were the third-most in a game in league history. Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes threw for six touchdowns in the game, which also set a Monday Night Football record.

2019- LeBron James records 25 points, 11 rebounds, and 10 assists in a game vs the Oklahoma City Thunder. The performance led James and the Lakers to a 112-107 win over the Thunder, and it made James the first player in NBA history to record a triple-double against all 30 NBA teams. James currently has 117 triple-doubles in his career, which ranks fifth on the NBA’s all-time list.

1. Denver Nuggets

2. Michael Vick

3. Edmonton Oilers

NCAAF Model Predictions🏈

NBA Model Predictions🏀

NCAAB Model Predictions🏀