Value on Vancouver as an Underdog

In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

Additional Model Predictions ⬇️ 

MLB Model Predictions- End of Newsletter

There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the NFL, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 1-0

Over/Under Predictions: 1-0

Spread Predictions: 1-0

Featured Matchup: 1-0

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Nine NHL games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all nine matchups can be found below.

Vancouver Canucks @ Tampa Bay Lightning

Model Predicts- Canucks ML, OVER 6.5, Canucks +1.5

The Vancouver Canucks will begin a four-game road trip on Tuesday night, with the first stop coming in Tampa, Florida to battle the Tampa Bay Lightning.

Vancouver’s 2024-25 season has gotten off to a slow start, as the Canucks own an 0-2-0 record following losses to the Flames and Flyers last week. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay sits at 1-0-0 through one week of play, with the Lightning taking down an Eastern Conference foe in the Carolina Hurricanes to begin their season.

Sportsbooks make the Lightning the favorite in tonight’s game, but our model projects the Canucks to come out on top. Let’s dive into why that is.

Vancouver Canucks

• Have yet to win a game this season

  • Lost to Flames last Wednesday and Flyers last Friday

  • Own -2 goal differential in that span

• Have experience bad luck defensively that should start to turn

  • Own a 2.65 GA/60 in 5-on-5 situations, but xGA/60 (Expected Goals Against per 60 minutes) sits much lower at 1.59

  • Have allowed very little pressure on net- 5.29 High-Danger Chances Against per 60 minutes (HDCA/60) in 5-on-5 ranks 1st in NHL

• Projected goalie- Arturs Silovs

  • 0-1-0 record this season. Owns .857 Save % in 5-on-5 situations.

  • Ranks 54th out of 55 in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) at -3.9

Tampa Bay Lightning

• Began season with win over Carolina Hurricanes

  • Won game 4-1. Scored four unanswered goals to win game

  • Three of four goals came in final eight minutes of third period

• Significantly out-performed expectations in first game

  • Posted GA/60 in 5-on-5 of 1.36, but xGA/60 in 5-on-5 came in at 4.14

  • Offense did not score a goal in 5-on-5 situations- two power play goals, two empty net goals

• Projected goalie- Andrei Vasilevskiy

  • 1-0-0 record this season. Owns .944 Save % n 5-on-5 situations

  • Ranks 7th in GSAx at +2.5

What’s the Play?

Vancouver has yet to win a game this season, but we agree with our model that the Canucks are in position to start their road trip off with a win against the Lightning.

It’s tough to draw many conclusions after just one game, but Tampa Bay’s performance against Carolina certainly was not a good one despite finding the win column. As previously mentioned, the Lightning did not score a goal unless they had the man-advantage or no goalie was in net, and their xGA/60 in 5-on-5 was 2.78 goals higher than their GA/60, hinting that regression is on the horizon.

Additionally, Tampa Bay’s defense put Vasilevskiy in plenty of bad spots vs Carolina, posting a 16.38 HDCA/60 in 5-on-5 in that matchup. It’s clear the Lightning are rusty on both sides of the ice, and a Canucks team that has scored seven goals through two games can take advantage of that.

Vancouver will need better play from Silovs in net and be better on the penalty kill (71.4% Penalty Kill % ranks 22nd) in order to win this game, but we believe both of those factors will take place here and Vancouver’s defense will prevail. As a result, we’ll back the Canucks as a road underdog.

The Play: Canucks ML (+115)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Vegas Golden Knights- 3-0-0 overall this season with average margin of victory being 2.33 goals

• Calgary Flames- 3-0-0 overall this season, 1-0-0 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Florida Panthers- Over is 3-1 this season with average total of 7.00

• Vancouver Canucks- Over is 1-1 this season with average total of 8.00

• Seattle Kraken- Under is 2-1 this season with average total of 5.33

Puck Line Trends ➕➖

• New Jersey Devils- Puck Line is 4-1 this season

💪 Islanders take down Avalanche in Patrick Roy’s return to Colorado. Brock Nelson scored twice in the second period, leading the New York Islanders to a 6-2 win over the Colorado Avalanche, marking coach Patrick Roy’s return to Denver. Nelson’s short-handed goal during a power play was a key moment, while Ilya Sorokin made 32 saves for the Islanders. Colorado's Alexandar Georgiev had 32 saves, but his mistakes contributed to New York's early goals, while Calum Ritchie scored his first NHL goal for the Avalanche.

😈 Jake Allen posts first shutout as Devils hand Utah its first loss of season. Jake Allen earned his first shutout with New Jersey, while rookie defenseman Seamus Casey scored early in the second period, leading the Devils to a 3-0 victory over the Utah Hockey Club. Stefan Noesen and Nico Hischier added goals as New Jersey secured its fourth win in five games, while Karel Vejmelka made 30 saves for Utah in the team's first loss of the season. Casey’s power-play goal broke a scoreless tie and was a key moment in the game, with Allen stopping 20 shots to secure the shutout.

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Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Two UCONN players were selected within the top-12 of the 2006 NBA Draft. One of those players was Rudy Gay, who was the other?

Question #2- Three pitchers recorded an ERA below 2.30 during the 2013 season: Clayton Kershaw, Matt Harvey, and what other pitcher?

Question #3- The Houston Astros lost the 2019 World Series in seven games to what NL East team?

Anyone know what has happened on October 15th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On October 15th…

1989- Wayne Gretzky passes Gordie Howe to become the NHL’s all-time top scorer. Gretzky achieved the milestone as a member of the Los Angeles Kings and against his former team in the Edmonton Oilers, with his record-setting point giving him 1,850 for his career. Gretzky would end his career with 2,857 points, 936 more than any other player in NHL history.

1995- The Carolina Panthers win their first ever NFL game. The victory came against the New York Jets, a game in which Carolina won 26-15. The Panthers were announced as the NFL’s 29th team back in 1993, but did not begin playing until the start of the 1995 season, a year they finished 7-9 in 16 games.

2014- The Kansas City Royals defeat the Baltimore Orioles in the American League Championship Series. Kansas City won the series four games to zero, outscoring Baltimore 18-12 across four games. The Royals would go onto face the San Francisco Giants in the World Series, but would lose in seven games.

1. Hilton Armstrong

2. Jose Fernandez

3. Washington Nationals

MLB Model Predictions⚾️