Value on Warriors as Underdog

In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

Additional Model Predictions ⬇️ 

NCAAF Model Predictions- End of Newsletter

NHL Model Predictions- End of Newsletter

NCAAB Model Predictions- End of Newsletter

There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the NHL, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 6-5

Over/Under Predictions: 7-3-1

Puck Line Predictions: 5-6

Featured Matchup: 1-0

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12 NBA games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all 12 matchups can be found below.

Golden State Warriors @ Boston Celtics

Model Predicts- Celtics ML, OVER 230, Warriors +6.5

The Golden State Warriors will continue their five-game road trip on Wednesday, with the next stop coming in Boston, Massachusetts to battle the defending NBA Champions, the Boston Celtics.

Golden State enters tonight’s matchup on a hot streak, winning four consecutive games to push the Warriors’ record to 6-1 for the season. Boston is in a similar spot, as the Celtics have won three-straight games and enter this matchup in second place in the Eastern Conference with a 7-1 record.

Golden State and Boston have each been one of the best teams in the early going, but our model expects Boston to emerge victorious in a tightly contested game. Let’s dive into why that is.

Golden State Warriors

• Enter tonight on four-game win streak

  • Two wins over Pelicans, one win over Rockets and Wizards

  • Own +52 point differential in that span. Have won three of four games by 13 points or more

• Have been elite on both ends of the floor early on

  • Own +16.8 Net Rating this season- 2nd in NBA

  • Rank 4th in Offensive Rating (118.9), 2nd in Defensive Rating (102.1)

• Strength of defense is on the perimeter

  • Holding opponents to shooting 28.3% from three- 1st in NBA

Boston Celtics

• Enter tonight on three-game losing streak

  • Two wins over Hornets, one win over Hawks

  • Own +55 point differential in that span. Have won all games by double-digits

• Offense has been leading the charge in quest for back-to-back titles

  • 121.8 Offensive Rating ranks 1st in NBA. Was 122.2 in 2023-24 regular season

  • Shooting well from three, but struggling inside- 37.3% three-point % ranks 8th in NBA, but 41.8 points/game in paint ranks 23rd

• Dealing with injuries to two major players

  • Kristaps Porzingis still out with foot injury. Jaylen Brown also out with hip injury

What’s the Play?

Golden State’s team statistics may be inflated due to their ease of schedule, as the Warriors have only played one team with a record above .500, but we agree with our model to back the Warriors on the spread as a road underdog.

Boston has been crushing teams from behind the arc this season, but that is going to be increasingly difficult against an elite perimeter defense like the Warriors. As previously mentioned, Golden State is holding opponents to shooting 28.3% from three this season, and that number has remained relatively flat during Golden State’s four-game win streak, jumping slightly to 30.8%.

To make matters worse, the injuries to Jaylen Brown and Kristaps Porzingis tremendously affect Boston’s offensive capabilities, both on the perimeter and the interior, where the Celtics have yet to put up significant numbers this season.

Golden State has proven it can keep up offensively with Boston, and has the defensive tools necessary to keep the Celtics in check on the other end of the floor. Our model projects Boston to win this game by roughly three points, giving us plenty of room to back Golden State on the spread.

The Play: Warriors +6.5 (-105)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Boston Celtics- 7-1 overall this season, 2-0 as the home team, and 3-0 in last three games

• Oklahoma City Thunder- 7-0 overall this season, 4-0 as the away team

• Phoenix Suns- 6-1 overall this season, 4-0 as the home team, and 5-0 in last fie games

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Atlanta Hawks- Over is 7-1 this season, 4-1 as the home team

• Philadelphia 76ers- Over is 3-0 as an underdog this season

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Golden State Warriors- 6-1 against the spread (ATS) this season, 2-0 ATS as an underdog

• Los Angeles Clippers- 4-2 ATS this season, 2-2 ATS as the home team

🤕 Aaron Gordon sidelined multiple weeks with calf injury. Denver Nuggets forward Aaron Gordon will be sidelined for multiple weeks due to a right calf strain, according to ESPN's Shams Charania. Gordon briefly played in the recent win over Toronto but had been dealing with calf and knee issues. Alongside Gordon's absence, the Nuggets are also without Jamal Murray, who missed the last two games with a concussion, as they prepare to face the undefeated Oklahoma City Thunder.

😬 Joel Embiid suspended three games after shoving reporter. The NBA has suspended Joel Embiid for three games without pay after he shoved a media member in the locker room following a recent loss. NBA executive Joe Dumars emphasized the importance of professionalism and respect in player-media interactions, acknowledging Embiid’s frustration over a critical article that mentioned his family. Embiid will serve the suspension starting Wednesday, with plans to return on November 12 for the NBA Cup opener.

Today’s Top Sportsbook/DFS Offers🎰

Sportsbooks and Daily Fantasy sites are providing new users with a plethora of offers and bonuses when they sign up, and our staff has provided it’s top three for November 6, 2024!

To claim an offer, click the “Open Account” button on the corresponding banner, complete the sign up process, make a deposit, and start betting!

Underdog Fantasy- Get a free pick plus a first deposit offer up to $1,000!

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Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- The Arizona Diamondbacks selected what future All-Star with the No.1 overall pick in the 2005 MLB Draft?

Question #2- The New England Patriots defeated what NFC West team in the 2015 Super Bowl (Super Bowl XLIX), winning the game 28-24?

Question #3- Tobias Harris has played for five teams in his NBA career. Which of those teams has he played for twice?

Anyone know what has happened on November 6th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On November 6th…

1974- Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Mike Marshall wins the Cy Young Award. The honor came following a dominant season on the mound, one in which Marshall posted a 2.42 ERA across 208.1 innings across 106 outings. Marshall became the first relief pitcher in MLB history to win the Cy Young Award, and only eight other relief pitchers have done so since 1974.

1983- Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back James Wilder rushes for 219 yards in a single game. The performance came in a 17-12 road win over the Minnesota Vikings, a game where Wilder saw 31 carries and posted a longest run of 75 yards. Wilder would go on to put up big rushing numbers throughout the rest of his career, and today is Tampa Bay’s all-time rushing yards leader with 5,957 yards.

1997- San Francisco Giants manager Dusty Baker is named the National League Manager of the Year. The honor came following a season in which Baker led the Giants to a first place finish in the NL West, on that saw the Giants end the regular season with a 90-72 record. It was the second time Baker was named NL Manager of the Year, and he would win the award again for a third and final time in 2000.

1. Justin Upton

2. Seattle Seahawks

3. Detroit Pistons

NCAAF Model Predictions🏈

NHL Model Predictions🏒

NCAAB Model Predictions🏀