In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

Additional Model Predictions & Bonuses ⬇️

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There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 10-5

Over/Under Predictions: 10-5

Run Line Predictions: 7-8

Featured Matchup: 1-0

10 MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all 10 matchups can be found below.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Model Predicts- Phillies ML, UNDER 9.5, Diamondbacks +1.5

The Philadelphia Phillies will continue their 10-game road trip on Thursday, with the next stop coming in Phoenix, Arizona to battle the Diamondbacks in a four-game series.

Philadelphia has produced mixed results thus far on its road trip, posting a 3-3 record. However, all three of those wins have come in the last three games, showing the Phillies have some momentum on their side after a slow start since the All-Star break. Arizona has plenty of momentum on its side as well, as the Diamondbacks have emerged victorious in in four consecutive games.

Arizona has arguably been the MLB’s best team over the last month, but our model spots plenty of value on the Phillies in tonight’s matchup. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Philadelphia Phillies

• Have won three of last four games

  • One win over Mariners, two over Dodgers

  • +13 run differential in that span

• Finally getting the bats going again after massive slump

  • Rank 8th in wRC+ (151), 22nd in BABIP (.250), and 8th in OPS (.911) across the last four games

  • Low BABIP stands out, but is sign of getting unlucky even while putting up big numbers

• Starting pitcher- Kolby Allard

  • Due for some positive regression- 4.50 ERA vs 4.13 xERA

  • Great control on mound- 6.3% Walk rate

Arizona Diamondbacks

• Enter game on four-game win streak

  • One win over Pirates, three wins over Guardians. +8 run differential in that span

  • Have now won eight of last ten games

• Offense has produced at high level since All-Star break

  • Rank 3rd in wRC+ (143), 15th in BABIP (.299), and 2nd in OPS (.893)

  • Making tons of contact- 17.4% Strikeout rate is 2nd best in MLB since All-Star break

• Starting pitcher- Jordan Montgomery

  • Due for positive regression, but still expected to be bad- 6.37 ERA vs 5.33 xERA

  • Ranks in bottom 4% of MLB in strikeout rate (14.6%) and xBA (.295)

What’s the Play?

Arizona has been better than Philadelphia over a longer stretch since the All-Star break, but we agree with our model that this is a solid spot to back the Phillies on the money line.

This is a tough spot for Arizona to be in. Due to weather delays earlier in the week, the Diamondbacks were forced to play a double-header yesterday against the Guardians, which is already a tough task to overcome. To make matters worse, those games were played in Cleveland and now the Diamondbacks will travel back across the country for a game against a Phillies team that has been out west since last week, putting them at a severe disadvantage.

Additionally, Jordan Montgomery is nowhere close to being the same pitcher he was last season, as evidenced by his strikeout rate falling nearly 7% and his ERA rising by more than 3.00 runs.

Philadelphia has the advantage in the travel department, on the mound, and has been equally as good as Arizona at the plate over the last few games. That is a recipe for a Phillies win.

The Play: Phillies ML (-115)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Baltimore Orioles- 68-47 overall this season, 34-22 as the away team, and 7-5 vs the Blue Jays this season

• Philadelphia Phillies- 68-46 overall this season, 30-24 as the away team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Atlanta Braves- Under is 66-42-5 this season, highest win percentage in MLB (61.1%)

• Toronto Blue Jays- Over is 62-49-3 this season, 27-13 against division opponents (Play AL East rival Baltimore today)

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Washington Nationals- Run line is 64-51 this season, 29-27 as the home team

🤕 Orioles place Rodriguez on IL with lat strain. Baltimore Orioles pitcher Grayson Rodriguez has been diagnosed with a mild lat strain and will be temporarily shut down from throwing, though the team remains hopeful he will return this season, manager Brandon Hyde stated. Rodriguez, who was scratched from his scheduled start against the Toronto Blue Jays due to feeling unwell, has been placed on the injured list. In response, the Orioles recalled left-hander Keegan Akin from Triple-A and placed outfielder Heston Kjerstad on the injured list with a concussion.

💥 Kyle Schwarber hits three home runs in comeback win over Dodgers. Kyle Schwarber hit three home runs and drove in seven runs to lead the Philadelphia Phillies to a 9-4 victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers, completing a comeback win. The Dodgers, who lost two of three in the series, saw their NL West lead shrink to just three games over the Arizona Diamondbacks. The game also saw Dodgers manager Dave Roberts ejected after a controversial interference call during the Phillies' five-run sixth inning, which gave Philadelphia the lead.

Today’s trivia requires you to know a thing or two about nicknames. We’ve given you the nicknames of five NFL players, past and current, and it is your job to guess as many as possible.

As always, answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

1. Beast Mode

2. Big Play Slay

3. Pacman

4. Red Rifle

5. The Bus

Anyone know what has happened on August 8th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On August 8th…

1992- The original United States “Dream Team” wins the gold medal at the Barcelona Olympics. A team that featured NBA legends Michael Jordan, Larry Bird, Magic Johnson, and Scottie Pippen and many others, the Dream Team defeated their opponents by an average of 43.8 points per game, the second-largest point differential in Olympic history. The gold medal match was won by a score of 117-85 against Croatia, the lowest margin of victory the United States had at the Olympics.

1997- Seattle Mariners pitcher Randy Johnson strikes out 19 batters in a 5-0 over the Chicago White Sox. Johnson would throw an incredible 148 pitches across nine innings, allowing just five hits and three walks while on his way to his 16th win of the season. It was the second time in less than two months that Johnson recorded 19 punch outs in a game, which currently ranks second in MLB history for the most in a single game.

2004- Former NFL quarterback John Elway is inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Selected with the No.1 overall pick in the 1983 NFL Draft out of Stanford, Elway played his entire professional career with the Denver Broncos, winning two Super Bowls, one MVP award, and earning nine Pro Bowl selections. He would go on to finish his career with 51,475 passing yards and 300 touchdown passes, ranking him in the top-15 in NFL history in both categories.

1. Marshawn Lynch

2. Darius Slay

3. Adam Jones

4. Andy Dalton

5. Jerome Bettis