In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter presented by Betstamp…

Additional Model Predictions & Bonuses ⬇️

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There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 8-7

Over/Under Predictions: 7-7-1

Run Line Predictions: 11-4

Featured Matchup: 1-0

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15 MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all 15 matchups can be found below.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Chicago Cubs

Model Predicts- Phillies ML, OVER 7.5, Cubs +1.5

The Philadelphia Phillies will continue their six-game road trip on Wednesday, staying in Chicago to take on the Cubs at Wrigley Field.

Philadelphia got the best of Chicago in Game 1 of this series, walking away with a 6-4 victory on Tuesday. That win was the seventh in the last ten games for the Phillies, while the loss was the second consecutive for the Cubs.

Philadelphia and Chicago have been trending in opposite directions for quite some time now, and our model expects that to remain the case today as it projects the Phillies to win this matchup. Let’s dive into why that is.

Philadelphia Phillies

• Beat Cubs in Game 1 of series

  • Outscored Chicago 6-4. Second straight win

  • Carried by Trea Turner- Two home runs, four RBIs

• Offense is finding a rhythm despite being without big hitters

  • Rank 4th in wRC+ (151), 1st in BABIP (.426), and 4th in OPS (.890) across last two games

  • 13 runs scored in last two games, despite being without Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and J.T. Realmuto

• Starting pitcher- Zack Wheeler

  • Pitching to expectations- 2.73 ERA vs 2.98 xERA

  • Ranks in top 12% of MLB in xBA (.208) and Hard Hit rate (31.5%)

Chicago Cubs

• Can’t seem to get out of losing slump

  • Last night’s loss was the seventh loss in last ten games

  • -8 run differential in that ten-game stretch

• Weak offense is responsible for many losses

  • Rank 19th in wRC+ (95), 16th in BABIP (.286), and 22nd in OPS (.676) since June 1st

  • Have scored just 103 runs since June 1st- 4th fewest in MLB during that stretch

• Starting pitcher- Shota Imanaga

  • Still a candidate for some regression- 3.07 ERA vs 3.48 xERA

  • Ranks in bottom 20% in Barrel rate (9.6%) and Ground Ball rate (34.5%)

What’s the Play?

Even while short-handed, the Philadelphia Phillies continue to prove why they have the best record in baseball, and we agree with our model that they will continue their dominance today.

Imanaga has been a candidate for regression since the second week of the regular season, and teams are finally starting to catch up to him. The southpaw has posted a 6.95 ERA across his last 31.1 innings, and his vulnerability to fly balls and the barrel make further regression a realistic possibility, which is also evidenced by the 0.41-run gap between his real ERA and xERA.

In the end, Philadelphia has a far better offense even when its power hitters are out of the lineup, and Zack Wheeler, who has surrendered two earned runs or less in seven of his last eight starts, provides more stability on the mound. Our model believes the Phillies should be closer to a -150 favorite here, so we’ll grab them at -130.

The Play: Phillies ML (-130)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Boston Red Sox- 45-39 overall this season, 25-16 as the away team

• Philadelphia Phillies- 56-29 overall this season, 23-15 as the away team, and 7-3 in last 10 games

• Kansas City Royals- 47-40 overall this season, 30-17 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Houston Astros- Under is 49-32-4 this season, 24-15-1 as the away team

• Baltimore Orioles- Over is 44-32-9 this season, 22-14-3 as the away team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Washington Nationals- Run line is 48-37 this season, 20-18 as the home team

⬇️ Marlins DFA Tim Anderson. The Miami Marlins designated shortstop Tim Anderson for assignment and recalled infielder Xavier Edwards from Triple-A Jacksonville. Anderson, who joined the Marlins on a one-year, $5-million contract, struggled with a .214/.237/.226 slash line and no home runs over 65 games. Edwards, who has performed well at Triple-A, is expected to compete with Vidal Bruján and Otto Lopez for the shortstop position going forward.

💪 Orioles take possession of 1st place in AL East with win over Seattle. Grayson Rodriguez pitched 6 1/3 shutout innings with only two hits allowed, while Anthony Santander's RBI single in the fourth inning gave the Baltimore Orioles a 1-0 lead against the Seattle Mariners, which they extended to 2-0 with Cedric Mullins' RBI single in the seventh. Rodriguez was dominant, retiring the first eight batters and escaping two jams, supported by Yennier Cano, Cionel Pérez, and Craig Kimbrel, who combined for perfect relief innings. Despite a strong outing from Mariners starter George Kirby, who allowed two runs over 6 1/3 innings, the Mariners' offense struggled, extending their losing streak to three games.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- The Orlando Magic selected what center with the No.1 overall pick in the 2004 NBA Draft?

Question #2- Jarome Iginla, Ilya Kovalchuk, and what other player were the only three NHL players to score at least 50 goals during the 2007-08 season?

Question #3- The Boston Red Sox defeated what team in six games to win the 2013 World Series?

Anyone know what has happened on July 3rd throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On July 3rd…

1966- American baseball outfielder Moises Alou is born in Atlanta, Georgia. Alou played 17 seasons in the MLB, suiting up for the Pirates, Expos, Marlins, Astros, Cubs, Giants, and Mets. Despite being a bit of a journeyman, Alou strung together a solid career, one that saw him post a .303 batting average, 332 home runs, and 1,287 RBIs.

1973- Brothers Gaylord and Jim Perry face each other for the first and only time in their MLB careers. Jim’s Detroit Tigers defeated Gaylord’s Cleveland Indians 5-4, with Gaylord being charged for the loss. However, Gaylord would be the brother to become a Hall of Famer, while Jim still had a solid career, earning three All-Star nods.

2006- NHL legend Steve Yzerman officially retires from the NHL. Yzerman was drafted fourth overall in the 1983 NHL Draft by the Detroit Red Wings, which would be the only team he would play for during his 22 year career. He would end his career with 1,755 points, which currently ranks him seventh on the NHL’s all-time list.

1. Dwight Howard

2. Alex Ovechkin

3. St. Louis Cardinals