In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 10-5

Over/Under Predictions: 10-4-1

Run Line Predictions: 6-9

Featured Matchup: 1-0

The wait is finally over. There is one NFL game scheduled to take place today, with the Detroit Lions taking on the Kansas City Chiefs on Thursday Night Football.

Detroit Lions @ Kansas City Chiefs

Model Predicts- Chiefs ML, Under 52, Lions +4.5

The Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs will begin the 2023 NFL season on Thursday night in Kansas City, Missouri.

Continue reading below to see out shortened analysis of this matchup and our model’s best bet.

Detroit Lions

• Finished last season with a 9-8 record, the first time ending a season above .500 since 2017

• Jared Goff still leading the charge at QB. Finished last season sixth in passing yards (4,438), fifth in touchdowns (29), and fifth in QB Rating (63.3)

• Lost running backs D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams in offseason. Replaced with former Bears back David Montgomery and rookie Jahmyr Gibbs

• Terrible defense in 2022. Allowed league-worst 392.4 yards per game

Kansas City Chiefs

• Always hard to go against the defending Super Bowl Champs, but the Chiefs have plenty of concerns

• Travis Kelce (questionable) is likely out tonight due to hyperextending his knee in practice. Leaves Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore and Marques Valdez-Scantling as top pass catchers

• Will also be without top pass rusher Chris Jones, who generated 15.5 sacks last season

What’s the Play?

The absences of Chris Jones and Travis Kelce greatly affect Kansas City on both sides of the ball, a team that doesn’t have much depth to fill in the holes. As a result, we agree with our model that the Lions can cover the spread here.

Detroit’s defense was horrific last season, but the signings of Cameron Sutton and Alex Anzalone will help sure up both the pass and run defense. A tall task awaits them, but the lack of offensive weapons against an improved (on paper) Detroit defense will make things challenging for Mahomes.

Meanwhile, Detroit possesses a plethora of depth on the offensive side of the ball, boasting one of the best offensive lines in the league and a running back and receiving group that Jared Goff can march down the field.

Our model only likes Kansas City to win by roughly three points, so we’ll gladly take Detroit at +4.5.

The Play: Lions +4.5 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Kansas City Chiefs- 64-16 in regular season and 5-0 in Week 1 openers with Mahomes as QB, 7-0 in last seven home games

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Detroit Lions- Over is perfect 12-0 in Week 1 over last 12 seasons, 15-1 dating back to 2007

• Kansas City Chiefs- Over is 5-0 in Week 1 openers with Mahomes as QB

• Our model just barely likes the under. We’d personally stay away from the total

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Detroit Lions- Jared Goff is 6-0 against the spread (ATS) in Week 1 in his career, including 2-0 with the Lions

• Kansas City Chiefs- Patrick Mahomes is 30-37-1 ATS overall when favored by 3.5 points or more. 4-10 ATS last season in those situations

Detroit Lions @ Kansas City Chiefs

• Detroit Lions

  • Emmanuel Moseley (OUT), Jameson Williams (Suspended)

• Kansas City Chiefs

  • Travis Kelce (Questionable), Chris Jones (OUT)

🤕 Cooper Kupp out for Week 1. Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp will sit out Sunday's game against the Seattle Seahawks due to an ongoing hamstring injury, confirmed by head coach Sean McVay. Kupp initially suffered the hamstring injury during a training camp practice on August 1, and a recent setback has extended his recovery. McVay expressed a desire to avoid rushing Kupp's return, leaving his status for future games uncertain, possibly leading to an injured reserve placement.

💰 Nick Bosa ends holdout, earns MASSIVE contract. The San Francisco 49ers received the news they've been eagerly awaiting for 43 days: Defensive end Nick Bosa is set to return. Bosa and the Niners have agreed to a historic five-year, $170 million extension, making him the highest-paid non-quarterback in NFL history, with $122.5 million guaranteed. Coach Kyle Shanahan, sporting a big smile, confirmed Bosa's return to the Bay Area, potentially allowing him to play in the upcoming season opener against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

🏜 Josh Dobbs earns starting job in Arizona. Joshua Dobbs is set to be the Week 1 starter for the Arizona Cardinals against the Washington Commanders, according to NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport. Rookie Clayton Tune will serve as the backup, and the team plans to assess the situation on a weekly basis, but Dobbs will take the reins to begin the season. With Kyler Murray on the physically unable to perform list, the Cardinals had a competition between Tune and Colt McCoy for the starting role during camp, but Dobbs entered the picture late and ultimately secured the starting position

There are only six MLB games scheduled to take place today. However, due to gaps in the season data, our model has predictions for five of today’s matchups.

Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays

Model Predicts- Rays ML, OVER 8, Rays +1.5

The Seattle Mariners and Tampa Bay Rays will square off in Game 1 of a three-game series on Thursday night in Atlanta.

Seattle has been on the road for quite some time now, with tonight’s contest being Game 7 of an 11-game road trip. The Mariners are 2-4 since hitting the road, losing games to the Mets and Reds. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is in the midst of a seven-game home stand, one that included a 2-1 series victory over the Boston Red Sox.

Our model thinks that Tampa Bay has a slight edge in this matchup, even with Luis Castillo on the mound for Seattle. Continue reading below to see our shortened analysis for tonight’s contest and our model’s best bet.

Seattle Mariners

• Currently sit at 2-4 during current road trip with -1 run differential in that span. Now sit in second in AL West behind Houston

• Pitching staff shoulders much of the blame for struggles. Owns 5.58 ERA and 6.36 FIP since September 1st (FanGraphs), ranking Mariners in bottom nine of MLB in both categories

• Making up for those struggles at the plate though. Rank ninth in wRC+ (129), second in home runs (14), and 11th in OPS (.823) in September

• Luis Castillo (11-7 record, 3.19 ERA) listed as tonight’s starter. Has been great all season, but ranks in bottom 25% of MLB in Hard Hit rate, Barrel rate, and Average Exit Velocity. Also owns 3.76 xERA, hinting at regression

Tampa Bay Rays

• Zack Littell (3-4 record, 4.69 ERA) listed as tonight’s starter. Littell began the season in the bullpen, but assumed starting role after injuries plagued the Rays

• Littell has struggled in last five starts, posting 5.53 ERA and 5.56 FIP during that stretch (FanGraphs). Owns stellar 1.7% walk rate in that time, but is far too vulnerable to contact and is struggling to stack strikeouts (18.1% K rate)

• That’s been a common theme this season for the righty, ranking in the bottom 22% in strikeout rate and bottom 9% in Whiff rate

• His 9.7% Barrel rate is also a big concern. Opposing hitters can clearly size him up, leading to 7 home runs over his last five starts

What’s the Play?

Both Castillo and Littell struggle to keep the hard contact to a minimum, which will likely pose a problem while each goes against one of the best offenses in the MLB. As a result, we agree with our model on the over in this matchup.

Not only is hard contact an issue, but neither pitcher can keep baseballs on the ground. Littell owns a 39.6% ground ball rate this season, which has plummeted to 27.8% over his last five starts, and Castillo has posted a 36.9% ground ball rate in is last six starts.

Hard contact plus keeping balls in the air is a recipe for runs. We’ll back the over in this contest as long as the total stays at 8.

The Play: Over 8 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Tampa Bay Rays- 85-55 overall this season, 47-24 as the home team, 7-3 in last 10 games

• Detroit Tigers- 63-75 overall this season, 4-2 in last six games when Eduardo Rodriguez is starting pitcher

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Tampa Bay Rays- Over is 74-62-4 this season, 43-27-1 as the home team

• Chicago Cubs- Over is 71-64-5 this season, 36-31-4 as the home team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Tampa Bay Rays- Run line is 72-68 overall this season, 1-1 as a home underdog

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com.

😬 Urías placed on administrative leave after arrest. Major League Baseball has placed Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Julio Urias on administrative leave following his arrest on suspicion of felony domestic violence. This move comes under MLB's joint domestic violence, sexual assault, and child abuse policy, which could potentially lead to a suspension for Urias. While on leave, players are paid but cannot participate in games, and Urias is currently under a one-year, $14.25 million contract in his final season of salary arbitration eligibility.

🤕 Sandy Alcantara, Jorge Soler hit IL. The Miami Marlins have placed two key players on the injured list, with starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara sidelined for 15 days due to a right forearm flexor strain and outfielder/designated hitter Jorge Soler out for 10 days due to a right oblique strain. Alcantara's injury occurred after he pitched eight innings in a recent win over the Washington Nationals, aa big blow to Miami’s pitching staff. On the other hand, Soler has been contributing significantly to the Marlins' offense with 35 home runs and 71 RBI this season as the team competes for a wild-card spot in the NL East.

👎 Andrew McCutchen done for 2023 season. Andrew McCutchen's heartwarming season has come to an end as the Pittsburgh Pirates' designated hitter has been placed on the 10-day injured list after partially tearing his left Achilles tendon while hitting a double. Initially downplaying the injury as "fine," further evaluation by the Pirates' medical staff revealed the tear, which will require McCutchen to wear a walking boot for six weeks. Despite being one home run away from reaching 300 and his free agency looming, McCutchen had not considered the 2023 season as a farewell tour, expressing his desire to stay in Pittsburgh beyond his current deal.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Which team drafted Dirk Nowitzki in the 1998 NBA Draft before he was traded to the Dallas Mavericks on draft night?

Question #2- Who was the first player to rush for over 2,000 yards in a single NFL season, and in what year did they achieve this milestone?

Question #3- Who was the first African American head coach to win a Super Bowl, and with which team did he achieve this?

Anyone know what has happened on September 7th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On September 7th…

1986- Hall of Fame quarterback Dan Marino throw his 100th career touchdown pass in a 50-28 loss to the San Diego Chargers. Marino became the fastest QB in NFL history to reach the milestone, doing so just 8 days before his 25th birthday. He would end his career with 420 touchdown passes, which currently ranks 7th on the all-time list.

1991- Brigham Young University quarterback Ty Detmer sets new NCAA record for career passing yards with 11,606. Detmer was the Heisman Trophy winner the year prior to setting the record, further displaying how dominant he was at the collegiate level. He would end his career with 15,031 pass yards, which ranks fifth in NCAA history.

2020- Former PGA Tour golfer Dustin Johnson wins the Tour Championship at East Lake Golf Club. Johnson managed to put a three-stroke gap between him and his next closest competitors, which happened to be fellow Americans Xander Schauffele and Justin Thomas. Johnson also claimed the FedEx Cup title with the win, and equaled the biggest winners prize in golf at $15 million.

1. Milwaukee Bucks

2. O.J. Simpson (1973)

3. Tony Dungy (Indianapolis Colts)